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Betting Stuff: What we learned from the College Football Playoff first round
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The College Football Playoff first round was incredibly divisive. Leading into an 8 p.m. ET kick on Friday night in South Bend, the energy was off the charts. Even through a computer monitor, the Playoff buzz emanating from Notre Dame Stadium was palpable. Then the game kicked off, Indiana threw a pick 4 minutes in, Jeremiyah Love broke a 98-yard touchdown run 14 seconds later, and we careened off the rails.
Four games resulted in 4 blowouts. The best teams won. The losers were viciously picked apart on behalf of a few 3-loss SEC teams. People argued. Jokes were made. Feelings were hurt. Set aside the incessant complaining; we learned quite a bit from the opening round. Here are a few that jumped out.
First-round games are so enviable
Ohio State, a 7.5-point favorite, won by 25 points. Penn State, a 7.5-point favorite, won by 28. Notre Dame, a 6.5-point favorite, was up 17 going into the fourth and won by 10. Texas, a 13.5-point favorite, was up by 21 points in the second half and won by 14.
Favorites were 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. Including the 4-team era, favorites are now 25-9 SU and 20-14 ATS in the CFP. One thing I believe gets lost in the noise when Kirk Herbstreit and others talk about the final spots in the field is that our sport’s playoff system might be flawed at the bottom, but it’s never problematic at the end. The best team is going to win. The best team has nearly always won. The 4 best teams from the first round won. Does anyone outside of Tempe believe Arizona State is going to win the national championship? (That’s not intended to be shade toward the Sun Devils. I love the job Kenny Dillingham has done. But they face a gauntlet of teams bigger and deeper than them.) One of the preseason favorites is going to win.
None of the host teams in the first round were really threatened. Injuries reared their ugly head for Texas and Notre Dame but, to a degree, those are just going to be part of the game. All 4 host teams benefitted tremendously from hosting. The environments were electric. The Buckeyes rediscovered their mojo. The Nittany Lions finally won a big game. The Longhorns got their ground game going. The Irish solidified themselves as a legitimate threat.
Given the Longhorns’ path, I wonder if the 5-seed becomes the most coveted spot in college football. At least until the format is changed. Texas got the last team into the field in the first round, got to host a home Playoff game, and now it gets the lowest-ranked of the 4 auto-bye teams.
But even if the format changes, first-round games look more enviable for host teams today than they did this time a week ago. Recruits will want to play in those environments. Tickets were hot. The reward is massive, and the risk appears to be low.
Higher-ranked seeds were 13-7 SU in Playoff semifinal games during the 4-team era. Including the 4 first-round games last weekend, 15 of the 24 non-championship Playoff games have been decided by 14 points or more.
Texas has a reliable ground game now
Clemson had been poor against the run all year, so it probably shouldn’t have been a surprise to see Texas break loose in the ground game. Nevertheless, the Longhorns revving up their ground game early in the postseason was a tremendous sign. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been less efficient this year than last, and there have been all sorts of theories as to why. Ewers threw a pick against Clemson and it didn’t really harm the Longhorns, whose balance on offense kept Clemson fully on its heels.
Coach Steve Sarkisian is one of the best in the sport at building sequentially throughout a game, developing counters to pet plays and then developing counters to those counters. If the ground game is humming, Texas becomes remarkably unpredictable.
The ground game did not hum during the regular season. Even with Saturday’s result, the Longhorns rank just 52nd nationally in run efficiency, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. They got just 31 yards on 28 carries against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and were held under 4 yards per carry 3 times during league play.
Remove sacks and the 2 kneel-downs on the final plays of the game and Texas averaged 7 yards per carry against Clemson. Even with a pair of sacks included in the rushing totals, Texas ran for a season-best 292 yards.
“The story of the game, I think, obviously, is us finding the run game offensively, to have two 100-yard rushers in the game and establishing ourselves on the ground to create balance offensively, I thought, was critical to the game,” Sarkisian said.
The offensive line was unbelievable. Even with an unexpected rotation brought on by injury, Texas dominated on the line of scrimmage. Receivers blocked well. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue consistently hit the right holes. Massive lanes were available for chunk gains.
“We needed to run the football to win this game and we’re going to need to run the football to advance in these playoffs — that’s what Playoff ball is about. So we really challenged them on the run game, from the opening meeting, getting ready for the ball game, to the intent in which we practiced, I thought we had a good plan,” Sarkisian said.
Texas now has at least 240 rushing yards in 3 of its last 4 games. Prior the Nov. 23 game against Kentucky, Texas had more than 200 rushing yards in a game only twice. Sarkisian has challenged the group to run the football more efficiently and Texas is starting to respond.
Ewers was one of the biggest wild cards in the entire field at the outset of the Playoff. But if Texas can sustain itself on the ground, Ewers doesn’t have to be such a focal point. That could unlock the best in his game.
Per Game on Paper, Arizona State — the Longhorns’ quarterfinal opponent — ranks 58th nationally in EPA per run faced and 59th in rushing success rate allowed. After the first-round showing, it was no surprise to see Texas open as a 2-score favorite over the Sun Devils. (The line is currently Texas -13.5 via bet365.) More of the same and Texas will be through to the CFP semis.
Jeremiyah Love is a game-changer
Notre Dame’s star sophomore finished with 8 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown in the win over Indiana. After a 98-yard score from Love in the first quarter, it was fair to wonder if the Irish tailback was going to have a record-setting day against the IU defense. But he was mostly held in check from then on. Love’s father said after the game his son was battling flu-like symptoms but expected to be 100% for the quarterfinal game.
Both Love and Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said the same.
“We know he’s not 100%,” Freeman told reporters. “We’re just going to keep getting him healthy. But he showed on that play whatever percent he is, once he breaks through that third level, it’s hard to catch Jeremiyah Love.”
Added Love: “I came into this game battling a few things. I probably sound pretty terrible. I came off of a little injury. I’m sick.”
If he can do this with a hazy head and a knee knock, what does a 100% healthy Love look like?
Maybe Love is still less than 100% when he lines up across from Georgia. Even still, he’s a game-changer for an Irish team that is built to run and laden with options who can do so effectively. The Irish don’t have to rely on Love. He averages only 11 carries a game and has cleared 1,000 yards this season. He has rushing touchdowns in all 13 games this season. He has flashed throughout the year — 102 yards against Navy, 137 yards against Army, 99 against USC before an early exit — but hasn’t had to carry any sort of burden.
Love has been one of my favorite players this season, and I think he’s one of the most talented players left in the entire Playoff field. The ceiling is sky-high for the St. Louis native. If he’s anywhere close to full strength against the Bulldogs, I wonder if he can be a difference-maker yet again. We saw Georgia struggle with a run-focused quarterback earlier this season when it faced Jalen Milroe. Riley Leonard isn’t the same kind of athlete, but he’ll stress the defense with his legs all the same. If the 3-headed ground can function like normal, there will be plays available for Love. Georgia ranks 42nd in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. It sits in the 35th percentile nationally for explosive run rate allowed.
Ohio State can win it all
I’ve seen social media edits hyping up the Ohio State-Oregon rematch. The energy around this game is palpable and it is still more than a week away. The Buckeyes want revenge. The Ducks want to put the right foot forward in their Playoff debut. The quarterfinal matchup between the 2 teams is going to feel like a title fight. Whoever wins is going to have the confidence it can go on to win the whole thing.
And that’s fair. These are the 2 best teams left standing in the tournament. We always knew what Ohio State’s ceiling was — a buzzsaw, capable of rolling to a national championship. The Buckeyes just liked to flirt with their potential throughout the regular season rather than push up against it. In the first-round win over Tennessee, Ohio State was as impressive as I’ve seen it all year. The first quarter was a comprehensive dismantling of the Volunteers.
Ohio State outgained Tennessee 205-16 over the first 15 minutes of the game. It averaged 10.8 yards per play. For the game, Ohio State put up 473 yards of offense at 7.4 yards per play. The advanced numbers were just as rosy. Ohio State posted a 52% success rate, per Game on Paper. It averaged 5.6 yards per play on first down and had an average of just 4.6 yards to gain on its third-down snaps.
The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA per play metric. They have one of the most expensive rosters in the sport, a wealth of depth at all of the important positions, and a quarterback who is coming off the best game of his career. The defense is different from when it faced Oregon the first time. The offense finally aired it out against Tennessee. This group should have all the confidence in the world.
Ryan Day’s challenge now is sustaining the energy Ohio State played with against Tennessee. It can’t just be a reaction to the Michigan game. If Ohio State can bottle this, it can beat Oregon and roll to a national championship. The Buckeyes are currently +360 to win it all at ESPN Bet. (Oregon has the next-shortest odds at +400. Texas is the favorite.)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
