Betting Stuff: Way-too-early bets for the 2026 College Football Playoff champion

I left the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff with 2 major takeaways.

The first was that some sort of format change is unavoidable. With Ohio State beating Notre Dame and covering the spread, favorites went 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. The only outright loss by a favorite came in the Orange Bowl, when Penn State flipped from a 1.5-point dog to a 1.5-point favorite shortly before kickoff. Notre Dame opened as the betting favorite in that game and that held firm throughout most of the week leading up to the matchup.

Ohio State’s victory also moved favorites in the CFP national title game to 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Since Clemson beat Alabama in the 2018 national title game as a 5.5-point dog, the favorites are 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in the title game.

That doesn’t necessarily indicate a fatal flaw with the system, but it does provide ammo to anyone who believes the seeding needs to be revamped. The 4 teams that earned first-round byes all went into their games as underdogs and they all lost. It feels likely that change will be coming to the way the field is seeded going forward. On ESPN’s Get Up on Tuesday morning, Paul Finebaum was circling Boise State as a team that was undeserving of its placement. The highest-ranked G5 champ didn’t really stand a chance against the Big Ten’s runner-up. Not that anyone thought it would, but blowouts don’t make for great TV.

The second major takeaway was that we might never see a team like this Ohio State group again. Talent is smoothing out in the era of rampant transferring, NIL, and revenue sharing. The Buckeyes were a proverbial Death Star, equivalent to some of those Georgia/Alabama champions we saw in past years. How many players off this title team are getting drafted? And they still have 2 guys on the roster next season (Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs) who are sure-fire top-5 picks in the future.

Looking through the teams atop the board for next year’s national title, none have the kind of bonafide talent this Ohio State team had… except maybe Ohio State. But even the Buckeyes have a question at quarterback and they have loads to replace on the defense.

Next year could be even more wide open than this season. So, with opening odds from FanDuel naming Ohio State and Texas the favorites to capture the 2026 CFP title, who is worth of an offseason wager? Here are 5 teams I’m considering entirely too early.

Related: Sports betting launches in the state of Missouri later this summer. Stay up to date with our guide on the top Missouri sports betting promos and make sure to keep this handy FanDuel Missouri promo code in your pocket to use when the state goes live.

College Football Playoff national championship odds

• Ohio State +450
• Texas +650
• Oregon +650
• Georgia +700
• Penn State +850
• Notre Dame +1200
• Alabama +1600
• Tennessee +1800
• Clemson +1800
• LSU +2000

via FanDuel

Ohio State, the favorite favorite

The preseason favorite has not won the national championship since 2017, when Alabama went wire-to-wire. That year, Alabama opened the season against a top-5 Florida State squad and handled business. Ohio State notably begins its title defense at home against Texas on Aug. 30. It’s very likely the Buckeyes and Longhorns will be ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the AP poll when that game comes around. Right now, I’d put my money on Ohio State to win. Yes, Texas has Arch Manning, but Ohio State has 2 of the 5 best players in the country next season in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. And Quinshon Judkins could still decide he wants to return.

Ohio State’s defense has to replace a ton — Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Cody Simon, Lathan Ransom, and Denzel Burke — but the Buckeyes have signed top-5 high school recruiting classes in each of the last 6 cycles. The Buckeyes recruit better than anyone in the Big Ten aside from maybe Oregon, and coach Ryan Day has one of the all-time greatest winning percentages by a coach. Beating up on the lower tiers of the Big Ten has never been an issue for Ohio State and it likely won’t be again next season. The only question is who is playing quarterback — former 5-star Alabama transfer Julian Sayin, third-year man Lincoln Kienholz, or 5-star 2025 signee Tavien St. Clair? Considering the Buckeyes just won a title with a quarterback Kansas State was content to part ways with, it might not matter who gets the nod.

Perhaps that’s a little too dismissive of the most important position in the sport. And, in fairness, it might be a little disrespectful to Howard. If there’s a glaring reason why Ohio State won’t repeat, it’s the quarterback spot. Per Game on Paper, Howard ranked third nationally this season in EPA per dropback, ahead of guys like Jaxson Dart and John Mateer and trailing only Cam Ward and Kurtis Rourke. Howard played 50 games across his 5 collegiate seasons. The trio of Kienholz, Sayin, and St. Clair have thrown 34 career pass attempts. The floor will be much lower next season as the new guy, whoever it might be, works through growing pains. Howard just had an unbelievable Playoff run, where he posted a 90.1 or better QBR in all 4 games, completed 75% of his passes, and threw 8 touchdowns against 2 picks. He was named offensive MVP of the title game on Monday night.

All that being said, Penn State is at home next season. Michigan is on the road. Oregon is off the schedule. Other conference road games include Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Purdue. This team likely won’t lose more than 2 regular-season games. Another 10-win season puts the Buckeyes right back in the CFP.

Georgia, a mid-range team that can go the distance

With Mack Brown retiring and Ryan Day winning his first national title as a head coach, the list of active FBS coaches who have led a team to a national championship will remain at 3 entering the 2025 season. Day has now done it, Dabo Swinney has done it, and Kirby Smart has done it. When the margins are slim, that should mean something.

And the margins were slim in Georgia’s quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame. Maybe the Bulldogs wouldn’t have beaten Penn State in the Orange Bowl, but they lost to the Irish by 13 points and gifted Notre Dame 14 points in the closing seconds of the second quarter and the opening seconds of the third. Georgia was uncharacteristically sloppy in 2024, and that was a huge reason for its one-and-done showing in the CFP.

But even with the worst Bulldogs team since Smart’s first year at the helm — 45th in net adjusted EPA per play this season, the worst Georgia mark since 2016 — the Bulldogs still won an SEC title and still made it to the College Football Playoff. This team would have made a 4-team field. The Bulldogs found a way.

They have some glaring weaknesses to address, but they seem to be doing exactly that this offseason. The skill positions seem better on paper. Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch add a couple of much-needed playmakers at the receiver spots. If coordinator Mike Bobo can figure out how to better utilize Lawson Luckie, Oscar Delp, and Nate Frazier, the Bulldogs will be tough to handle for any defense they face.

Can the defense take a step forward and find some creators? Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and Malaki Starks move on — all of them good players — but Georgia was 55th nationally this season in adjusted EPA per play. When the Dawgs won it all in 2022, the defense was 12th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. I like Gunner Stockton’s ceiling, but Georgia needs a couple of these 5-stars from recent signing classes to pop on the defensive side of the football. No one caused all-encompassing fear for opposing offenses the way past Bulldog defenders have.

Clemson, a mid-range team that can go the distance (+1800 via FanDuel)

Clemson might be my favorite option on the board at the moment. The Tigers have a proven, championship-winning head coach. They have a veteran quarterback who is among the best at his position in the sport. They have a star to build around on defense (TJ Parker) and a coordinator coming aboard who should raise the level of that unit (Tom Allen). They have brand power and they have a straight-line path to a power conference championship.

The ACC was bad in 2024 and it might take another step back in 2025. Florida State has a long way to go. Miami will be worse. Syracuse, Duke, and Louisville are all replacing their quarterbacks. North Carolina will be flashy with Bill Belichick, but that’s a rebuild job. Clemson gets LSU at home to open the season in a game that could cement the victor as a legitimate contender. After that, South Carolina is really the only team on Clemson’s schedule that should scare anyone.

Cade Klubnik figured out how to play on the road this past season, and he was finally surrounded by a couple of playmakers at receiver. Antonio Williams is a WR1 type with excellent ball skills and speed. Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore should continue to get better. Clemson has to replace Phil Mafah, but coordinator Garrett Riley has a top-3 returning quarterback in college football to lean on.

If Allen can figure out the defense, Clemson is the clear favorite in the ACC. The Tigers finished inside the top 11 in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed every year from 2014-21. They slipped to 17th in 2022, bounced back to eighth in 2023, and then plummeted to 46th in 2024. But there’s hope for a rebound. Swinney fired Wes Goodwin and swung for Penn State’s top defensive assistant. The Tigers even dipped into the transfer portal for reinforcements on the edge. If Clemson finishes top-20 in offensive and defense EPA per play, this team is probably going no worse than 11-1 against the schedule it has, and I think that’s completely within reach.

Ole Miss, a sleeper (+2300 via FanDuel)

While Ohio State was celebrating on the field Monday night, Austin Simmons posted a photo of his TV on his Instagram story with a caption that said, “We will be here. Mark my words.” Simmons has big shoes to fill next season when he takes over at quarterback for Jaxson Dart, but I actually think Ole Miss can become a legitimate threat in the SEC.

In my view, the Rebels were the best team in the league this past season. They just didn’t get a chance to prove it in the title game or in the Playoff, and that was a product of their own doing. They lost an awful game to Kentucky and then lost to Florida in a spot where they knew they couldn’t afford to lose. Still, the Rebels closed out the year ranked seventh nationally in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. They were No. 3 nationally in scoring offense, No. 2 in scoring defense, No. 2 in per-play efficiency on offense, and No. 4 in per-play efficiency on defense. Lane Kiffin hit all the right notes in the transfer portal.

If Ole Miss is to compete again in 2025, that needs to once again be the case. Dart and 3 of his top 4 receivers are gone. But Cayden Lee is a big-name returner and Ole Miss has added Traylon Ray, De’Zhaun Stribling, Harrison Wallace III, and Luke Hasz out of the transfer portal. Walter Nolan, Jared Ivey, JJ Pegues, and Princely Umanmielen all depart from what was arguably the best defensive line in the country but, again, Ole Miss has reinforcements lined up.

Suntarine Perkins is an excellent edge. Zxavian Harris is a playmaker. And Princewill Umanmielen — Princely’s brother — joins via the portal. Ole Miss also added former 5-star LSU edge Da’Shawn Womack. Kiffin and defensive coordinator Pete Golding have proven they can put a stout defense together through the portal.

And I love Simmons. He’s a gamer. He came in cold against Georgia and looked more than made for the moment. With Kiffin calling the shots and a bevy of talented options at receiver, Simmons has the potential to be a star as soon as next season.

And this schedule is a kind one for the Rebels. They have nonconference games against Georgia State, Tulane, Washington State, and The Citadel. Tulane and Wazzu notably lost their best players to the portal this offseason. The SEC slate will see the Rebels play 4 of the 6 teams that finished the 2024 season with a losing record in league play. LSU and South Carolina are at home while Georgia is on the road.

Florida, a sleeper (+5000 via FanDuel)

Florida was a dangerous team over the back half of the 2024 season and the pieces are there for this to be an elite offense paired with a gritty defense next fall. DJ Lagway will get his center, his left tackle, tailback Jadan Baugh, wideout Eugene Wilson III, and tight end Hayden Hansen all back. The Gators added J. Michael Sturdivant from the portal and signed blue-chip freshman Dallas Wilson to help at receiver. Lagway finished his true freshman season a perfect 6-0 in games he started and finished, flashing a truly special playmaking ability all throughout. The Gators also bring bank Caleb Banks and Tyreak Sapp along the defensive line.

Because of the schedule, Florida could easily become the first 3-loss team to make the College Football Playoff. The Gators play LSU and Miami on the road in September. They face Texas and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks to open October. And they close the season with Georgia, Ole Miss on the road, and Tennessee at home. It’s just as it was in 2024. But, to a degree, Florida’s gauntlet forged the Gators.

Florida was a hardened team over the back half of the 2024 season, when it closed on a 4-game winning streak that included upsets of LSU and Ole Miss. The Gators nearly beat Tennessee on the road, and gave Georgia all it could handle. Those defeats helped set the table for late-season wins. With a full season of health for Lagway, Florida should be competitive week in and week out. If the Gators win 9 games against the toughest schedule in the country, they’ll have a strong case to make the CFP. And if they make the CFP, there may not be a more battle-tested team in the field.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.