Just like last season, the Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings.)
North Dakota State at Colorado (-9.5)
Spenser Davis: For as volatile as Colorado was last season, the Buffs were routinely beating the market. They went 7-5 ATS last season and covered in 4 of their last 5 games. I’m sensing some animosity toward Colorado in the market, which leads me to believe Prime’s team is undervalued in this spot. I’m also not sure North Dakota State is the monster that it used to be. PICK: Colorado
Paul Harvey: I’m genuinely torn because NDSU is one of the premier FCS programs in the country and has hung with FBS teams in matchups in the past. This game has a chance to be close late in the game, but I’ll lean toward the Buffs getting a late score or two to hit the number. PICK: Colorado
Derek Peterson: I didn’t expect to be the only one backing the Bison at this number. NDSU has a veteran-laden roster and 2 quarterbacks who each ran for 13 touchdowns last season. The Bison were effective on the ground last year and should be so again in 2024. QB run teams just stress defenses early on in seasons. Alternatively, Colorado went through another offseason marked by significant change across the board. The run defense was bad last year and Colorado has to show it can win games in the trenches before getting the benefit of any doubt. NDSU knows what it is, and I’m not sure Colorado will in Week 1. North Dakota State can win this game. It had won 6 straight against FBS teams prior to a 3-point loss at Arizona in 2022. PICK: North Dakota State
Ethan Stone: Ultimately, this is still a Power 4 school (that actually hurt to type) facing an FCS program. Like my colleagues, I’m far from high on Colorado this season, but the Buffs should put this one away with relative ease. I’m not sure they’re THAT bad. PICK: Colorado
North Carolina (-2) at Minnesota
SD: Hopefully Darius Taylor plays in this game, because he and UNC’s Omarion Hampton are genuinely 2 of the best running backs in the country. I don’t trust either quarterback situation. As recently as about 10 days ago, Minnesota was a 2.5-point favorite in this game. Whatever the reason for the line movement, I think it’s probably gone too far. I’ll take the home dog. PICK: Minnesota
PH: Both teams have some question marks and new faces, particularly at quarterback. After finishing below .500 last season, some people might be sleeping on Minnesota a bit to begin the year. Getting this one at home will swing things for the Gophers. PICK: Minnesota
DP: We’re all rolling with the home dog. I actually like Minnesota’s new quarterback, an FCS transfer who threw for nearly 500 yards against an FBS team just last year. I’m also firmly out on whatever is going on in Chapel Hill. PICK: Minnesota
ES: North Carolina’s defense was not good last season, and I’m not entirely sure Geoff Collins is the answer to righting the ship. On the other side of things, Minnesota returns 4 offensive linemen and should be able to do what it always intends to do: Run the ball. I think Max Brosmer is an upgrade over Athan Kaliakmanis from last season and the Gophers are at home. Call me crazy, but I think the wrong team is favored here. PICK: Minnesota
Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia
SD: Since the start of the James Franklin era, the Nittany Lions are 54-37-1 against the spread as a favorite. Say what you want about Penn State when it faces tougher competition, but this is a program that feasts on inferior opponents. Last season, WVU’s defense was in just the 44th percentile in rush defense success rate. That’s not a great sign as the Mountaineers take on one of the best RB rooms in the country. I think Penn State gets up by double digits early and then grinds this game out. PICK: Penn State
PH: I don’t think this game is a cakewalk for Penn State, but the defense of the Nittany Lions has a shot to be elite once again. Andy Kotelnicki also gets his first shot at some razzle-dazzle as the OC for Penn State. Ultimately, the ground attack and defense for Penn State is probably enough to get a strong win even if Drew Allar’s accuracy is questionable at the start. PICK: Penn State
DP: Not enough people are talking about Garrett Greene, West Virginia’s quarterback who finished 12th nationally last season in yards per play (8) in what was his first year as a full-time starter. Greene was inconsistent, but as the Mountaineers closed out the 2023 season with 3 consecutive wins, Greene was special, completing 60% of his passes while averaging 342 yards of total offense with 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception. He’s a difference-maker with the ability to hurt defenses with his legs. I think this is a close game Penn State will have to grind out, not a multi-score win. PICK: West Virginia
ES: Frankly, I don’t know what to expect from either of these teams this season. I’m confident in Penn State’s defense and I’m confident in West Virginia’s ability to run the ball. I am FAR from confident in Drew Allar to lead this team to a different tier, though. Morgantown can be an elite atmosphere for this game. Let’s get crazy. PICK: West Virginia
Clemson vs. Georgia (-13.5)
SD: Everyone remembers Clemson starting 4-4 last season on the back of some dreadful turnover luck and poor QB play. Not as many acknowledge 5 straight wins to end the year. I don’t think Clemson has a real chance to win this game but the difference between these rosters from a talent standpoint probably isn’t 14 points on a neutral field (including 2 against ranked teams). PICK: Clemson
PH: Clemson may be the best team in the ACC after what we saw out of Florida State. But that’s not going to mean much when they face Georgia in Atlanta. The Bulldogs are the preseason No. 1 for a reason, and Dabo Swinney did not do nearly enough to keep the Tigers in contention with other elite programs. PICK: Georgia
DP: Dawgs. Georgia is on a mission this season. PICK: Georgia
ES: This was a pretty shocking number to read for a top-15 matchup. I don’t think Clemson wins this game, but I do think the Tigers are going to improve from their very rough start in 2023 and could very well be a playoff team. Ultimately, Clemson’s secondary has too many question marks for me to believe they can down Goliath, but I’ll take the Tigers to cover: PICK: Clemson
South Dakota State at Oklahoma State (-10)
SD: Oklahoma State, one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this season, is only a 10-point home favorite against an FCS team to open the year? What’s going on here? Here’s some context: ESPN’s Bill Connelly has South Dakota State ranked as the 50th-best college football team in the country (and by far the best FCS team). As good as Mike Gundy is, OSU has been liable to slip-ups — the Cowboys lost outright to South Alabama just last year. I’m expecting OSU will be a very popular pick at this number, so I’ll go the other way and take SDSU. PICK: South Dakota State
PH: It looks like we’ll find out if Mike Gundy is serious about handing the ball off to Ollie Gordon 50 times. If that happens (and even if it doesn’t), the Cowboys should find a way to build a double-digit lead by the end. PICK: Oklahoma State
DP: Colorado is a good example of the exact kind of situation that can foster an FCS-over-FBS upset. Questions along the line of scrimmage, questions about identity, questions about the cohesiveness throughout the team. Oklahoma State is in the exact opposite spot. The Cowboys know who they are (so long as Mike Gundy doesn’t go rogue) and have a wealth of shared experiences to lean on. Ollie Gordon is great. Please don’t let Alan Bowman throw it 40 times. PICK: Oklahoma State
ES: For the same reasons I took Colorado to cover with relative ease against North Dakota State, I’m taking OK State over SDSU. PICK: Oklahoma State
SPORTSBOOK
Miami (-2.5) at Florida
SD: Florida is at home. Most preseason power ratings have Florida ranked above Miami. I’m not so sure the difference between Cam Ward and Graham Mertz is as big as their reputations would lead you to believe. I’ll gladly take the points and the home team. PICK: Florida
PH: Miami may be the ACC’s best shot to avoid a total blunder in the nonconference slate. This one should be a great game in Gainesville, and I don’t normally side with road favorites in power conference matchups, but this is Billy Napier’s Florida we’re talking about. PICK: Miami
DP: I wholeheartedly expect this game to be decided by something that breaks the internet. Like, a shoe is thrown that costs someone the game. Or a coach forgets the clock management portion of his playbook on the bus. Because Florida doesn’t seem to like Billy Napier and the SEC schedule-makers seem to hate the Gators the way Kendrick Lamar hates Aubrey Graham, there’s this thinking that Florida will struggle to make a bowl because the team is lacking in quality. Florida’s pretty good. I just think Miami is better. (And the Cam Ward slander above will be addressed internally.) PICK: Miami
ES: I really like Miami this season. Cam Ward is the real deal, and Damien Martinez can be a force in the backfield. If Mario Cristobal and the remainder of the sidelines can allow their talent to flourish the Hurricanes could be a problem. PICK: Miami
Notre Dame at Texas A&M (-3)
SD: Notre Dame was a slight favorite in this matchup before it lost left tackle Charles Jagusah to season-ending injury during fall camp. Simply put, I don’t think this line has moved enough to represent how important Jagusah was to Notre Dame. Notre Dame will now face Nic Scourton and a host of other elite pass rushers with a true freshman left tackle. The Irish’s entire starting offensive line will walk into Kyle Field with 6 career starts. I have a lot of questions about how Notre Dame is going to move the ball in this game. PICK: Texas A&M
PH: Mike Elko might be the right man at Texas A&M, but I question why Texas A&M is penciled into the preseason AP Poll after what we witnessed in Jimbo Fisher’s final season. Marcus Freeman has done a good job of building Notre Dame, and a win by the Fighting Irish in this one will be an early piece to a CFP portfolio. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: It’s not even that Notre Dame’s expected starting offensive line only has 6 career starts amongst them. It’s that these are inexperienced players in general. The 2 guys who have starts under their belt are third-years who didn’t play at all in Year 1, and then played sparingly before entering the lineup for the last 3 games of the 2023 season. The left tackle is a true freshman. The right tackle has seen 52 career snaps. The left guard has seen 15 career snaps. Asking that group to go on the road to face a defensive front with the talent Texas A&M possesses is asking too much. PICK: Texas A&M
ES: College Station is going to make this really, really tough for the Fighting Irish. Conner Weigman is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. Regardless, this Notre Dame team is going to be really, really solid. I’m not sure Elko gets a win of this magnitude on Day 1. PICK: Notre Dame
Fresno State at Michigan (-21.5)
SD: It’s a new era at Michigan, but I think the Wolverines have a lot to prove. I expect Sherrone Moore will not hesitate to run up the score if the opportunity is there. I also think Michigan’s quarterback question marks are a bit overblown, at least against this level of competition. PICK: Michigan
PH: Jeff Tedford stepped down as Fresno State’s head coach in July, a little over a month before the program heads to the Big House to face the defending national champs. QB question marks for Michigan are real, but the defense is not a concern. In fact, the Wolverine defense might outscore the Bulldogs. PICK: Michigan
DP: Fresno State has been mediocre against the run for several years and Michigan can fully shut down this offense. PICK: Michigan
ES: I think Michigan is hilariously overrated this season, but there was no decision here. We’re playing this one at the Big House and the Wolverines should still own the line of scrimmage. Blue all the way here. PICK: Michigan
LSU (-4) vs. USC
SD: Both of these teams overhauled their defensive coaching staffs this offseason. As a general rule, I trust Brian Kelly a lot more than I trust Lincoln Riley when it comes to staff hires. I also think LSU has a slight edge at quarterback, although Miller Moss may be a touch underrated at this point. This could be a very high-scoring game but I’ll take the team with more defensive upside. PICK: LSU
PH: If the 2023 performance of each team is any indication, this might be a must-see shootout in Vegas, even with new QBs under center. That being said, I simply cannot pick Lincoln Riley in this matchup. A win by the Trojans would be the most fun outcome, but it’s an unlikely one. PICK: LSU
DP: Lincoln Riley has been an underdog only 11 other times in his head coaching career. He’s 6-4-1 against the spread in those games. For almost his entire career, Riley has had elite quarterback play. The assumption is that a Riley-coached offense will be fine, but it’s probably smart to temper expectations early for Miller Moss. He was great in the Holiday Bowl but bowl games are tricky. LSU could maul USC when the Tigers have the ball. I’m not sure the same is true going the other way. If LSU gets up by a couple of scores and the game goes squarely on Moss, a mistake or 2 wouldn’t be a surprise. PICK: LSU
ES: I’m not sure the post-Williams Trojans are going to be able to keep up in this one. The Tigers offense will struggle to beat last year’s generational offense, but it’ll be plenty to handle USC in this spot. PICK: LSU
Boston College at Florida State (-17)
SD: This number has been beaten down from 21.5 since Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech in Week 0. Boston College played Florida State extremely well last season in Chestnut Hill, nearly pulling off the upset. FSU should have a point to prove in this game, but I think BC can do enough to cover this number. PICK: Boston College
PH: Boston College has a chance to be better than expected under Bill O’Brien, and we saw some disappointing areas of concern from the Seminoles in Ireland. Speaking of Ireland, what is the toll of returning from overseas to play a game one week later (even if it is on Monday)? I don’t find that set of circumstances encouraging. PICK: Boston College
DP: The Boston College offensive line is huge and anchored by right tackle Ozzy Trapilo. The defensive line has plenty of experience. Strong run concepts and good line play helped Georgia Tech really control the game against FSU. Boston College might be able to do those same things; Thomas Castellanos should be able to hurt FSU with his legs the way Haynes King did. I don’t think the ‘Noles start 0-2, but there are enough issues to sort through right now that a 17-point win feels unlikely. PICK: Boston College
ES: Funny enough, Boston College and Georgia Tech were my favorites to surprise some people in the ACC this season. I think the Seminoles bounce back, but Boston College could very well make this a game. PICK: Boston College
SPORTSBOOK
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
