10 bold predictions for the Florida Gators in 2023
Florida enters Year 2 of the Billy Napier era with minimal expectations.
Florida was picked to finish 5th in the SEC East, its lowest projection in the era of SEC divisions, and just last week, SEC Network projected things to be much worse, tagging a 4-8 season prediction on the Gators in 2023.
The cynicism isn’t without foundation. Florida has suffered consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1978-1979 and the Gators lost a consensus All-American on the offensive line and a first-round draft pick at quarterback. The Gators also haven’t fielded a top-50 defense since the 2019 Orange Bowl champion team, which finished 9th nationally in total defense, and last year’s finish of 97th was the worst for a Florida team since the New York Times and Sagarin began tracking “total defense” as a statistic in 1980.
Throw in one of the nation’s most difficult schedules — an SEC slate plus a road game at 2-time defending Pac-12 champion Utah and a home game against top-10 Florida State — and you begin to see why Florida faces skepticism in 2023.
But are things as bad as they seem?
Here are 10 bold predictions for the 2023 Gators.
1. A top-40 total defense
Florida will be massively improved defensively in 2023, thanks to its best defensive line since the 2019 Orange Bowl champions.
Florida added bulk in the portal with 360 pound mountain Cam’Ron Jackson from Memphis and the 315-pound Caleb Banks from Louisville. They’ll join Desmond Watson to give the Gators depth and mass in the middle. The Gators lost edge Justus Boone to a season-ending ACL tear in fall camp, a tough blow given how well Boone played throughout the spring and early in fall camp. But Florida has a genuine edge-setter in Tyreak Sapp, and Princely Umanmielen, newly converted to linebacker but capable at end, should contend for All-SEC honors.
Florida’s linebackers also should be vastly improved, allowing a unit that ranked 100th in the country against the run to improve as a run defense. That should be a vital step in igniting a defensive renaissance in Gainesville.
2. A top-25 pass defense
Florida’s run defense won’t go from 100th to the top 25, but the pass defense will make that big a leap in 2023. Signing RJ Moten, a starter for Michigan’s College Football Playoff squad, was a huge get who will help stabilize the back end of a defense that ranked 12th in the SEC, ahead of only Arkansas and Tennessee, in pass plays of over 20 yards a game allowed. Jason Marshall Jr. is projected to be a top-10 corner nationally by PFF, and Florida loves Devin Moore and Ja’Keem Jackson, who will man the other side. Miguel Mitchell and Kamari Wilson, both big recruits, should improve dramatically as second-year players who played a lot of football last season at the other safety spot.
3. Princely Umanmielen registers 10 sacks
Florida’s staff believes it has one of the best pass rushers n the country in Umanmielen, who collected 4.5 sacks a season ago. The move to the “Jack” linebacker spot required Umanmielen to drop weight in the offseason, but he’s shown up in camp as a consistent menace, looking sleeker and faster than ever before. Praised by Napier for attacking the summer and his new leadership role, expect Umanmielen to break out in 2023, building on the promise of a few late season highlight reel plays a season ago.
4. Graham Mertz will be better than expected
This isn’t really “bold,” I guess, because there’s nowhere to go but up for Mertz from an expectations standpoint. My SDS colleague Connor O’Gara didn’t even mention Mertz in his breakdown of SEC quarterbacks a month ago, and that was fair. Why? Because most prognosticators have been ranking Mertz anywhere from the 10th to the 13th “best” starter in the SEC, behind guys like Robby Ashford and Payton Thorne of Auburn and, in some rankings, AJ Swann of Vanderbilt.
Is that fair to a 2-year B1G starter at Wisconsin with over 5,000 career passing yards?
After all, how many times have we seen quarterbacks get a change of scenery, a new quarterbacks coach, and become elite? And how often are the ones who do become elite one-time blue-chip recruits? Mertz, like players such as Joe Burrow, who couldn’t win the job at OSU, and Michael Penix, who was ordinary before becoming a Heisman candidate at Washington, was a big-time recruit, the highest-rated quarterback ever to sign with Wisconsin.
At Florida, he plays in a better offense than the antiquated Badgers system that needed him to do so much. That role suits Mertz, and he’ll develop into a top-10 SEC quarterback (somewhere in the 6-10 range) in 2023. If that happens, Napier deserves some credit.
5. Florida beats a ranked opponent on the road
The Gators will have plenty of marquee opportunities. No team in America plays more teams ranked in the preseason top 15 than the Gators, who face 5. The Gators also get South Carolina, which starts outside the Top 25, and visits Kentucky, a bowl team from a season ago with a big-time quarterback. Florida’s road games: Utah, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri and Kentucky should give Florida at least 3 shots at road wins over a ranked foe. The Gators will win 1 of those contests.
6. And the Gators get a win over a ranked opponent at home, too
The Swamp is still, as Nick Saban said in 2021, “the toughest environment you can face in our sport.” It’s not just that it’s loud, as plenty of SEC stadiums are loud. It’s the combination of proximity of the student section to the field, coupled with the sweltering Florida heat and humidity that makes it a menacing venue.
“We played at altitude and in hot Tennessee summers,” Phil Fulmer remembered last summer. “And there’s just not anywhere or any way to replicate that heat and humidity. It’s just different down there. We’d have guys in tremendous shape and they’d throw up in the third quarter. They always seemed to be used to it. It’s a huge edge.”
Florida will use that edge to beat a ranked team at home in 2023, with chances likely to come against Tennessee and Florida State.
7. WR makes the All-SEC Freshmen Team
The Gators’ need for perimeter playmakers, coupled with one of the top wide receiver recruiting classes in the country in 2023, make this bold prediction likely to hit. Florida’s freshmen trio of Aidan Mizell, Andy Jean and Eugene Wilson III features 2 of the top 20 wide receivers in America in the 2023 class (Mizell, Wilson III) and 1 of the fastest in Jean (4.38 in the 40 yard dash). Wilson appears a bit behind the others right now, but all 3 will play and 1 will end up earning All-SEC Freshmen honors.
8. 2 RBs rush for over 1,000 yards
Florida should have one of the best 1-2 punches at running back in program history in Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, who combined for over 1,600 yards a season ago despite sharing the workload with Anthony Richardson, who added 740 yards rushing. This year, Johnson and Etienne will break the 1,000-yard mark on the ground, with Graham Mertz less likely to run and Florida playing plenty of close football games where sticking with the run game will be rewarded in the 4th quarter.
9. And Trevor Etienne will be first- or second-team All-SEC
Etienne was a dynamic playmaker as a true freshman, ranking 2nd nationally among true freshman running backs in explosive runs, like this one against South Carolina.
Trevor Etienne se escapó 85 YDS para que los Gators amplíen la ventaja a 24-06 en el tercer cuarto vs South Carolina ?? pic.twitter.com/RxigaiIMox
— TouchbackMx (@Touchbackmexico) November 12, 2022
Etienne also added over 400 yards in the kick return game, and he spent a good deal of time this offseason working on his route running to improve as a threat in the passing game. Etienne’s big brother, Travis, took a huge jump during his sophomore season, and there’s no reason to think Trevor won’t do the same, as he has all the tools to be one of the SEC’s top 4 running backs in 2023.
10. A top-5 recruiting class signs this winter
Before you write this off as “not bold,” consider that the Gators haven’t inked a top-5 class since 2013, when Will Muschamp was coming off an 11-1 regular season and a Sugar Bowl berth in 2012. Let that sink in, and then sit back and watch as Florida inks a top-5 recruiting class this winter, headlined by a future star at quarterback in 5-star DJ Lagway.