Hayes: When it comes to Anthony Richardson’s NFL Draft hype, I saw what I saw …
By Matt Hayes
Published:
We’re less than 10 days from a team making the greatest ceiling pick in NFL Draft history.
Or making a colossal mistake.
“If you asked me to physically build the perfect quarterback, I’d give you Anthony Richardson every time,” an NFL scout told me this week. “We’ve never seen anything like him.”
To this I say, don’t tell me what I’ve seen.
Because after all the points and counterpoints, the handful of plays that are constantly analyzed, the paralysis by analysis, this infatuation or degradation of Richardson comes down to 1 thing and 1 thing only.
Don’t tell me my eyes have seen something they haven’t.
Don’t tell me in a professional league that values accuracy — where passing windows are tight and combination coverages fooled Tom Brady until the last throw of his career — that a college quarterback who completed 53.8 percent of his passes will increase that number by 10-15 percent playing against the best players in the world.
Don’t tell me in a professional league where unique pressure packages and a decreased time to throw forces quicker decisions, that a college quarterback who last year — according to Pro Football Focus — ranked 121st in completion rate vs. pressure (38 percent), is going to magically extend plays with his athleticism and make critical throws.
More disturbing, Richardson’s 60.4% completion rate when not under pressure ranked 138th among FBS quarterbacks (starters and backups).
“You have to get beyond numbers and look at specific down and distance throws, and evaluate based on what can be if he’s further developed,” another NFL scout told me. “You’re evaluating on both what you’ve seen with specific throws relative to success in our league, and what you believe can be changed to make him a more complete quarterback.
“He’s a young guy playing the position. In that sense, he’s no different than Trey Lance, who played 1 season and started 1 game of another season.”
And how did that work out for the 49ers, who moved up to No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft to take Lance — and gave up 2 1st-round picks and another 3rd-rounder to make it happen? A year later, the 49ers took a flier on Iowa State QB Brock Purdy with the last pick of the 2022 draft.
Now Mr. Irrelevant from the 2022 draft has been pronounced the 49ers’ starter moving forward — and the top-5 pick with all the athletic skills (but numerous red flags on game tape) will sit and watch.
Scouts and those close to Richardson will tell you that it’s more than just bad decisions and poor throws. Richardson wasn’t put in the best position to succeed at Florida — 1 of the many reasons he could be the 2nd quarterback selected in the NFL Draft later this month.
One scout I spoke to said Florida’s offense was “archaic” and “predictable” and that Richardson was too often put in play-action situations where his back was turned to the defense before finishing the play fake.
Another scout told me Florida’s receivers couldn’t win consistently, and the staff failed to “create opportunities for easier throws” and that “he hasn’t been coached as well as he could have.”
Again, don’t tell me what my eyes have seen.
I watched Florida coach Billy Napier — the Gators’ quarterbacks coach and play-caller — when he was at Louisiana. Watched him turn 5-10, 180-pound no-star Levi Lewis into the best quarterback in the Sun Belt.
It’s all relative to your level of play, everyone. If Lewis finished with a 35-7 record as a starter, and had a TD/INT ratio of 72/17, clearly Napier was doing something right.
If Dan Mullen, considered an elite quarterback developer, got record seasons from Alex Smith (Utah), Chris Leak and Tim Tebow (Florida), Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) and Kyle Trask (Florida), wouldn’t it be a gigantic red flag that he couldn’t make it work with Richardson — the most physically-gifted of all of those quarterbacks?
Wouldn’t it be telling that Mullen, who was facing a make-or-break 2021 season after a tumultuous 2020 off the field (including landing Florida on probation for the first time in 3 decades), hitched his job security at Florida to Emory Jones and not Richardson?
Jones is a functional quarterback who has struggled his entire career — at Florida and Arizona State — with numerous aspects of the position. While Richardson showed flashes of elite play in 2021, Mullen kept going back to Jones when he had to win games to save his job.
Yet many scouts have spoken at length about Richardson’s development, and how he wasn’t put in position to be his best. There’s a strange disconnect here, and it’s not just NFL personnel giving specific intel to manipulate the draft.
Playing quarterback at any level isn’t about athletic ability, or throwing the ball 70 yards at your Pro Day. It’s the finer points of the position.
It’s reading defenses (fronts, pressures, coverage), and manipulating cornerbacks and safeties into releasing the coverage you want. It’s making difficult throws look easy, and — here’s the key — completing the easy throws.
I’m willing to believe those things can be coached, and Richardson’s struggles could simply be mechanics and a lack of reps and experience.
I’m willing to believe that Richardson’s desire to outwork everyone, and his passion to play the game, will translate into a different player at the next level.
I’m willing to believe Richardson is much closer to a project-turned-superstar (Josh Allen), than a project-turned-bust (JaMarcus Russell).
But don’t tell me what my eyes saw the past 2 seasons.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
