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Just in case there was any doubt, it’s Gunner Stockton time. Georgia players knew that by the middle of halftime in the SEC Championship when Carson Beck was ruled out for the second half against Texas.
Monday’s news that Beck’s elbow injury required season-ending surgery confirmed the notion that Stockton would be given the keys to the Georgia car for the Playoff. For his sake, hopefully he can steer UGA to a national title.
Stockton already navigated UGA to a comeback win against Texas. As in, a Texas defense that had the No. 1 pass defense in America that ranked No. 1 in yards/play. And sure, while Stockton delivered one of the most disastrous interceptions that you’ll ever see, he also engineered key scoring drives, including the game-winner in overtime when he somehow managed to hold onto the football after getting clocked by Texas safety Andrew Makuba. If Stockton fumbles there, UGA potentially loses that game and who knows whether it would’ve held on to a home Playoff game. After how the first round played out, yeah, it’s safe to say that Stockton holding onto the ball in that moment had significant ramifications.
I’ll add to the cliché narrative surrounding Stockton.
“Next man up.”
“You’ve got the support of the locker room.”
“Go be you.”
All of that is true. So, too, is that there’s at least some precedent for what Stockton is attempting. That is, lead a pivotal victory in relief and then win 3 starts en route to a national title. A decade ago, that’s exactly what Cardale Jones did for Ohio State. His dominance against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship provided the inverse of the 2023 Florida State scenario, and it forced the selection committee to put the Buckeyes in a field that they’d end up winning.
Contrary to what bitter FSU fans/the anti-SEC crowd argued the second that Beck went down in the SEC Championship, Stockton didn’t have to convince the selection committee of anything because he punched UGA’s Playoff ticket by earning an automatic bid. Cliché or not, all reports out of Athens indicate that while this is his first career start in Year 3 at UGA, Stockton doesn’t have to convince the locker room that he can lead the Dawgs to the promised land.
Take that for what it is. Vegas doesn’t seem as sold on Stockton being the 2024 version of Jones. That’s why the Dawgs are just 1.5-point favorites against Notre Dame, via ESPN Bet. Look at the national title odds and you’ll see UGA is only 5th at +550. Georgia is actually tied with Notre Dame at +550. Never mind the fact that Kirby Smart is 35-1 vs. non-SEC teams since the start of 2017, or the fact that the Irish are 3-23 vs. AP Top 5 teams since 1999.
We can say that it’s because of Georgia’s inconsistency defending the run, or its consistency dropping footballs, but let’s be honest: This is about quarterback play and the uncertainty of Stockton.
Smart admitted that he wished he had gotten Stockton more reps this year, but UGA having more too-close-for-comfort games prevented that. Before the SEC Championship, his last reps vs. Power Conference competition came last season in the Orange Bowl against the aforementioned FSU. We can debate how much that FSU team looked like it earned the “Power Conference” moniker.
What’s clear is that Stockton’s sample size is small. Real small. Then again, Jones had only attempted 16 career passes before he replaced the injured JT Barrett in 2014. Stockton has double that this season alone.
Still, though. That might make it a somewhat unique challenge for Notre Dame compared to facing 24-year-old Kurtis Rourke in the first round.
“You know, I think we have 80-something plays of him playing quarterback,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said (via DawgNation). “You know, (Stockton) can run their offense. He does some things a little bit differently. He’s got, you know, he can extend plays with his legs. He’s a good athlete. The thing I probably noticed most … in watching those 80 plays is he’s an ultra-competitive individual. You can just tell, you know, by the way he celebrates, by the way, you know, he goes and finishes plays. He’s a competitor. I don’t see it being tremendously different than what they’ve done all season. But we’ll prepare for anything.”
When Notre Dame has had extra time to prepare, it’s been exceptional against starting quarterbacks. Here are the 4 instances in which the Irish, who rank No. 1 in FBS in opposing QB rating (just ahead of previous UGA foe Texas), did to opposing starting quarterbacks with more than a week to prepare:
- Conner Weigman, Texas A&M — 12-30, 100 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 sack taken, 54.7 QB rating
- Ashton Daniels, Stanford — 8-13, 74 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 3 sacks taken, 109.4 QB rating
- Brock Glenn, Florida State — 5-18, 51 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks taken, 29.4 QB rating
- Kurtis Rourke, Indiana — 20-33, 215 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 sacks taken, 129.3 QB rating
That’s darn impressive, especially when you consider that the vast majority of Rourke’s production came late in the 4th quarter with Indiana facing a 27-3 deficit. Freeman and Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden have been borderline diabolical against opposing quarterbacks in those matchups. There’s plenty that the Irish can throw at Stockton that can confuse him and force him into mistakes against one of the best secondaries in the country.
Alternatively, there’s a world in which Stockton matures before our eyes. At this point, it shouldn’t be a surprise if that takes place. Let’s not forget that Stockton will have the benefit of his legs, which Beck didn’t utilize much. Georgia will also get a boost from Trevor Etienne, who was phenomenal in the SEC Championship coming off the rib injury that sidelined him for a month. And as much respect as Freeman’s defense on extra rest deserves, let’s not forget that it’s still a Smart defense on a neutral site. In this 8-year UGA run, that’s about as steady as any unit in the sport.
That doesn’t guarantee that UGA will perfectly handle Notre Dame’s 3-headed rushing attack, nor does it mean that Stockton will play with a lead for the duration of the Sugar Bowl. All it means is that guys have been put in worse spots than Stockton. Shoot, go ask FSU’s Jordan Travis-less QB room about that.
When Stockton lines up for his first career start with everything on the line, his task won’t be to repeat what Jones did 10 years earlier. He’ll be tasked with showing the world the same toughness and poise that’s been the talk of UGA for the last couple of weeks since Beck went down. Those 2 attributes will mean everything in however long this Georgia run lasts.
This is what Stockton came to Georgia to do. Now is as good a time as ever for it to be his time.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
