Hayes: NFL or Georgia? Carson Beck is the biggest domino in college football
A decision must soon be made. There’s no way around it.
Georgia needs to know, and Carson Beck is on the clock. The window to make a decision that will impact the 2024 college football season is quickly closing.
Will Beck stay at Georgia, or head to the NFL?
“I think you’ll see something happen very quickly,” an industry source told Saturday Down South. “There are too many moving pieces right now.”
Specifically, there’s too much uncertainty in the Georgia quarterback room.
Backup Brock Vandagriff left for the transfer portal earlier this month and committed to Kentucky.
According to On3, No. 1 overall recruit Dylan Raiola is reconsidering Nebraska, where his dad was a legendary player and his uncle is currently an assistant coach.
Finally, there’s Beck, who 2 NFL scouts told SDS has a Day 1 grade for the 2024 NFL Draft, and could move as high as top 10 overall. If he leaves for the NFL and Raiola signs with Nebraska, Georgia’s quarterback room is suddenly in disarray.
Georgia also has redshirt freshman Gunner Stockton on scholarship, and has a commitment in the 2024 class from 4-star Ryan Puglisi.
“Once (Beck) gets to the Combine, once he throws at Georgia’s Pro Day, once he interviews face to face, he’ll knock it out the park,” an NFL scout told SDS. “He already has elite arm talent and good tape. Once he gets on a grease board and you can see his elite knowledge of the game, forget it. He’ll be the 3rd (quarterback) taken.”
Georgia, 2 different sources told SDS, has been working on a 2024 NIL compensation package for Beck since late October. Smart is desperate to keep a championship-caliber quarterback and avoid the unknown of what happens if he can’t.
Beck’s NIL compensation package more than likely needs to be at least the same amount (or more than) he’d earn for an annual salary in his 1st year in the NFL — not the the entirety of the rookie contract he signs.
In other words, last year’s No. 10 overall pick (Bears OT Darnell Wright) signed a deal worth $20.9 million — with a 1st-year salary cap number of $3.8 million.
Last year’s No. 20 overall pick (Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba) signed a deal worth $14.4 million, with a 1st-year salary of $2.6 million.
By any metric, Beck’s NIL deal for 2024 would be significant. If he chose to stay at Georgia, it would also mean he’s betting on himself in the 2024 season.
The NFL salary cap changes every season, with some NFL personnel projecting a 2025 increase of $60 million per team more than the current number ($224.8 million). That means slotted 1st-round pick salaries will increase, too.
If Beck leaves for the NFL, Georgia must land a quarterback from the transfer portal. But with each passing day — not week — the possibility of landing 1 of the top quarterbacks in the transfer portal diminishes. Duke’s Riley Leonard committed Tuesday to Notre Dame.
One SEC coach told SDS he believes the reason there are still no firm commitments from many top quarterbacks in the portal is because everyone is waiting on Beck’s decision. But how much longer will they wait?
That means quarterbacks Will Rogers (Mississippi State), Cameron Ward (Washington State) and Dante Moore (UCLA) — elite-level players who have been in the winter transfer portal since the day it opened Dec. 4 and haven’t committed — are on hold and still available. For now.
But the longer Beck takes to make a decision, the more likelihood that 1 or a majority (or all) of the top quarterbacks available commit to other programs to avoid a mad scramble to find a home for 2024. Hence, Smart’s need for a decision from Beck.
Another SEC coach told SDS he believes if Beck leaves, other quarterbacks would then consider entering the portal for the Georgia job.
“I think you can guess what quarterback I’m talking about,” he said.
That would be Texas quarterback Arch Manning, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class who chose Texas over Georgia but is currently 3rd on the depth chart behind starter Quinn Ewers (who said in November he’s returning to Texas in 2024), and backup Maalik Murphy.
Either quarterback — Manning or Murphy — would be intriguing for Georgia. As would any number of quarterbacks who aren’t in the portal but could move if Beck leaves for the draft.
If Kansas State quarterback Will Howard follows Wildcats OC Collin Klein to Texas A&M, that could leave Aggies injured starter and former 5-star Conner Weigman available.
Another possibility is Tulane’s Michael Pratt, who was in the portal last season and was near a deal with Florida before pulling out late and returning to the Green Wave. His coach, Willie Fritz, recently left Tulane and accepted the Houston job.
Pratt could enter the draft, or could return for his final season — if the right opportunity arises.
The most important position on the field is a chessboard right now in college football. Everyone is waiting to see if King Georgia will be exposed.
And the countermove they’ll make.