SDS Roundtable: Georgia's over/under is 10.5 wins. How many games will Dawgs win in 2020?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: Can Georgia win 10 games for the 4th consecutive season?
A bit of background …
Kirby Smart is trying to become the 3rd Georgia to win 10 games in 4 consecutive seasons. Mark Richt accomplished the feat from 2002-05. Legendary Vince Dooley was the first to do so, from 1980-1983.
Georgia also has won the SEC East the past 3 seasons, but change is in the air in Athens. A new offense, led by a new coordinator and quarterback, offers all sorts of intrigue. A schedule that includes a trip to Alabama offers all sorts of challenges.
So how many games will the Bulldogs win? Our friends at BetOnline.ag listed the regular-season over/under at 10.5 wins. Will the Bulldogs go over? That’s something we’ve been discussing for a while.
Jon Cooper, SDS co-founder
This is a tough over/under, but I would take the under. Yes, the Bulldogs are a heavy favorite to win the SEC East again with an elite defense. The nonconference slate of UVA, East Tennessee State, UL Monroe and Georgia Tech should all be wins. The Dawgs should take care of business in conference, too, against Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. That leaves games at Alabama, vs. Auburn and vs. Florida (Jacksonville) as the biggest questions. Lose 2 of those, and you’ve hit the under.
With so many questions on offense this coming season — offensive line, quarterback, wide receivers, new coordinator, etc, I will take the under 10.5 wins for UGA in 2020.
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
Under. I keep going back and forth between 10 and 11 wins, but as we near 2 months of quarantine, I wonder about Georgia’s new-look offense against the SEC’s elite. I have major questions about not just how Jamie Newman will perform against SEC competition — I’m still leaning more optimistic on his outlook — but also about that offensive line overhaul. Not having Sam Pittman to guide these 4 new starters is a question mark, though Matt Luke was a fantastic hire given what Georgia lost.
And if anyone is sleeping on this Georgia defense, that’d be dumb. The nation’s top scoring unit is No. 21 in returning production. There might not be many teams who hit 20 points against the Dawgs in 2020.
But I’ll take the under just because if you’re asking me to pick the schedule today, I’d give a slight edge to Alabama and Florida in those matchups. Could that change by mid-season? Yeah. Absolutely. We don’t know what Todd Monken’s offense looks like in early May when we didn’t even get a spring game. But as of today, I’ll take the under on Georgia’s regular season win total for the first time since Year 1 of the Kirby Smart era.
Neil Blackmon, Florida columnist
Before COVID, I would have picked the over. Give Todd Monken a whole spring to install his offense and get Jamie Newman comfortable, figure out what you’re going to do replacing four starters on the offensive line, continue to develop what I think is the most talented wide receiver room in the country.
The lack of spring football and questions about how much summer camp there will be changes Georgia’s ceiling, I think.
They’ll be junkyard Dawgs come November, no doubt. But I can’t see Newman weathering the Alabama defense early and Georgia will trip up against one of Auburn, Florida or Tennessee thereafter. That would put the Dawgs at 10 wins, just under the number.
Michael Bratton, News editor
This is potentially a dangerous bet to make because I could see Georgia going undefeated this season if the offense gets rolling early and Jamie Newman doesn’t have a steep learning curve playing with new teammates and in a tougher league. On the other hand, I could see the offense being a disaster — due in part to a lack of spring football and a quick installation of the new offensive system heading into the fall — and the Bulldogs failing to live up to the championship standard of Kirby Smart’s program.
Before Dawg Nation comes at me, keep in mind last offseason Georgia fans were happy to see Jim Chaney leave for Tennessee and were touting all the weapons James Coley had to work with heading into the 2019 season.
Kirby Smart made the right decision to change the offense, but unfortunately, the timing of a move to a new system could not have come at a worse time for Georgia.
I’ll lean toward the over but I’m not confident in this one.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
I love that the Bulldogs added Jamie Newman this offseason and think he’ll be a great quarterback for them. However, I’m taking the under here. I think this is a 10-win team. I have them losing at Alabama in Week 3. There’s 1 loss. All they need is 1 more loss and they hit the under.
Here’s a look at other tough games on the Bulldogs’ schedule:
– vs. Auburn (Oct. 10)
– vs. Florida (Oct. 31 in Jacksonville)
– vs. Tennessee (Nov. 14)
Yes, it’s nice that Auburn and Tennessee have to travel to Athens, but if the Dawgs trip up against a team like South Carolina again, it could be a 9- or 10-win regular season for Kirby Smart’s crew. As long as they beat Florida, I still think they’ll win the SEC East, but that’s not a given this year by any means.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
I’ll be more surprised if Georgia beats Alabama than if Alabama beats Georgia by double digits.
Jamie Newman might be a terrific fit, but he won’t be by Week 3, when the Dawgs travel to Tuscaloosa. Fortunately, he’s a veteran, so even if he struggles, there shouldn’t be any long-term aftershocks. Last year, for instance, he had his worst day against Clemson (6-of-14, 41 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) but bounced back the next week with 284 yards and a TD pass to beat Duke. Newman beat up the bad teams on Wake Forest’s schedule, and I expect that trend to not only continue but grow at Georgia.
After Alabama, the Dawgs face La. Monroe and Vanderbilt before hosting annual rival Auburn. It’s fair to expect the Tigers to see a more dangerous version of Newman than the Tide will.
Everybody has Florida circled for all of the obvious reasons. I’m interested in the Kentucky game, in Lexington, in late November. It follows the Tennessee game, which we know will be emotional.
Talent-wise, Georgia could win 11 regular-season games. But I think they slip up a couple of more times and finish no better than 10-2 and quite possibly 9-3.
PREVIOUSLY
- LSU’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Tigers win?
- Alabama’s over/under is 10.5 wins. How many games will Tide win?
- Auburn’s over/under is 8.5 wins. How many games will Tigers win?
- Texas A&M’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Aggies win?
- Who wins more games in 2020: Ole Miss or Mississippi State?
- Florida’s over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will Gators win?
I’ll take the under, but I will be pulling for the over, if only because of the two West matchups. I also don’t see how anyone can say UGA has the most talented WR room in the country. All UGA fans could talk about last year was how bad their WR’s were. Now, they are the most talented in the country? I’m not buying that.
I agree Marine. With Spring practice, I might have been inclined to pick the over at 11. That extra hurdle with all the changes on offense will take some time to develop and I see 10 wins and maybe 9 if things don’t gel quickly. I also see the WR room as talented but “the most talented”, eh, pump the brakes on that. Pickens can eventually be a first rounder but he needs to manage his attitude so he doesn’t take himself out of games. To me Blaylock is still somewhat unknown and the rest are All unknowns. Good WR room and talented but the most… maybe wait on results first.
” All UGA fans could talk about last year was how bad their WR’s were.”
A few said that, most did not. We were decent at WR last season, losing Cager really hurt. Former OC James Coley said that on numerous occasions – he is no longer at UGA.
In hindsight, most of the blame on the field belongs in Jake Fromm’s lap. Few fans wanted to pin the blame on Fromm as the season transpired but Jake had a pitiful season. For whatever reason Fromm was not ready for the season and he regressed.
UGA play calling was abysmal and very capable play makers were ignored – Woerner, Cook, Wolf etc. Play calling was terrible and our offensive coaching staff was out-coached week-in and week-out.
I think Fromm shoulders some blame, but I think he just wasn’t comfortable with the receivers (outside of Cager and Blaylock) and was too hesitant to make risky throws. From some of the drops, I’m not sure is hesitation was unwarranted. I personally think the majority of the blame is laid at Coley’s feet. If the run game was more than running between the tackles from a shotgun formation, and was actually creative and not just running directly into a loaded box, the downstream impact might have opened up the passing game.
That’s post reminds of Animal house. “Remember when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?”
How so?
Lol JTF
Fromm peaked his freshman year and as he should have been getting better the next two years, he slid in the other direction. Whether it was his lack of ability or coaching or both is history now. I hope the NCAA will let schools practice most of the summer to get ready for the season, it seems logical that most teams need that.
And I’m beginning to believe this website is lacking advertisers since we continue to see fat boy stuffing his face with hot dogs every time we try to read a posting. Disgusting.
That’s your settings. I have never seen anyone eat a hot dog on this site.
I do think Fromm’s freshman year was his best; that was a loaded offense. Sophomore season the offense was still loaded with playmakers and the O-line was crushing folks but Fromm starting having more spotty performances. At LSU 2018 Fromm was terrible; he missed 2/3 easy TD throws.
The 2018 SECCG game was an elite performance, Fromm played a perfect game that day.
For the 2019 season take away the UF game and Fromm played C- or D season.
We are not the most talented WR team. We have a few talented WR’s coming back, but mostly are the incoming freshmen that have proved nothing thus far.
We have Pickens, Landers and Blaylock (which is coming back from ACL last season). That’s about it for our core of WR’s.
Blackmon doesn’t like Bama so he probably forgot that both Smith & Waddle are considered 1st round draft picks. That probably doesn’t mean much but their multiple years of high level of play does.
Bama, Auburn, and UF make this a tough over. Lose one of those three and stumble anywhere else between UVA, UK, UT or USC. Or just lose two of the first three listed. I wouldn’t touch this one if I was an UGA fan.
UGA won’t lose to Auburn in Athens. AU is a shadow of itself on the road. Bama and Florida will be the two that tell the tale. So much is unknown now that it’s impossible to give anything other than an opinion.
That game against Alabama in week 3 absolutely sucks. If that game was later in the year I’d have a bit more confidence. Gotta agree with the football universe that game will probably be an “L” for the Dawgs.
The offense should be up and running by the time Auburn comes to town.
The offense will be clicking on all eight cylinders by the time the WLOCP rolls around.
I’m going to go with a very tenuous over and give UGA 11 regular season wins.
Don’t let me down Dawgs!! Woof!!
10-11 wins seems fair, but I feel like a lot would have to go wrong to drop down to 9. Auburn lost a good bit on defense and I can’t imagine them being that much better along the OL. I just don’t see them winning in Athens. Same goes for Tennessee. Also don’t see Kentucky scoring enough points in Lexington to come out with a win. Not saying they couldn’t lose any of those games, I just feel like the defense will be too good for that to happen.
I also think the OL overhaul is being overhyped. This is the same OL that performed well against a really good Baylor defense, plus Ben Cleveland and incoming freshmen like Broderick Jones.
I think you have to assume a UGA loss in Tuscaloosa, with that 11th win depending on the outcome of the WLOCP.
Can’t get much worse on the OL for Auburn lol. Defense will be fine, maybe not as good but there are 7 starters returning from last year.
Lol well I didn’t say they would get worse, just didn’t think they would be much improved. I think UGA hold the advantage along both lines against Auburn and with the game being in Athens, I have a tough time seeing a loss for UGA.
Oh I know. Just pointing it out lol. I don’t see AU winning in Athens either unless Newman struggles. That D will be really good though
OK, I admit I don’t know all that much about “starters”, but I see Dinson, D Thomas, Davidson, Igbinoghene, D Brown, and Nick Coe gone. So, “7 starters returning” seems like a stretch. I see SP+ ranking Auburn 10th, if I didn’t miss something, in returning defensive production in the SEC, 78th in the nation. Do they still have a defense that will be “fine”? Probably, but the defense may have to be better than “fine” to avoid 5 losses this season.
Coe was a backup for the most part. Depeding on the defense that they are running auburn has anywhere from 6-8 starters returning. Truesdell and Big Kat on the DL. Pappoe and Britt are the two backers but if needed to run 3 backers then Wooten is back as a starter as well. That’s 5. The majority of the time auburn runs nickel sets with 5 DBs or dime sets with 6. McCreary and Tutt both return in the nickel package with Smoke Monday returning in the dime package, although he probably will be moved to FS full time. 7 returning starters is not a stretch. Base defense returns 6 alone, nickel package 7 and dime package 8. Also, if you think auburn has 5 losses then you’re delusional.
Your own words: “Defense will be fine, maybe not as good”. So with a top 20 defense last year you had 4 losses. Tell me how, with a defense “not as good”, speculating possible 5 losses is delusional.
BTW, by your way of counting defensive starters, A&M has somewhere around 13 returning.
Trust me.. we didn’t lose games last year due to our defense. Also is defense the only thing that plays in a football game? Gtfoh with your bs.. The offense will be better and the schedule is easier.
As far as A&M, I wouldn’t doubt it. They have a ton of starters returning. Should be good enough to finish 4th in the west again.
Trust me.. if you can’t see your defense last year kept you from losing at least 2 more games, you are the delusional one. But sure, easier schedule and better offense? OK, whatever.
What are you talking about?
I literally said “Trust me.. we didn’t lose games last year due to our defense.” Meaning it wasn’t our defense that lost us 4 games last year. Do you comprehend or are you just looking to argue like always?
As bad as our offense was at times last year it had no problem beating your aggies once again in front of the 12th man.. lol
If you can’t see my point there is “literally” no hope of you comprehending. I plan to revisit this… IDK, October 17th?
13th Man on defense?
You have no point. All you said was.. “Trust me.. if you can’t see your defense last year kept you from losing at least 2 more games, you are the delusional one”. You don’t think I know that? I literally said our defense is not what lost us 4 games.. It was our offense, which I said will be better this year. Reason for nott 5 losses? Offense = improved. Defense = slight step back. Comprehend or are you just gonna argue to see your words on the screen?
And sure, we can revisit this after Oct. 17. By then Auburn would have a 4 game winning streak..
Wde0012: When did replacing an average offensive line with an inexperienced line equal improved offense. Nix should be better but we may not get to see that if the line play doesn’t improve. I really like your young RB but again the line could hamper him. Sometimes it not how many starters you lose but who you lost. Y’all just lost 2 of the best (Brown was the best) d-linemen in the league. I do agree that the step back on D will be slight based on what Steele has done in the past.
DarthA: Average is putting it nicely. They weren’t good and 4 of them were seniors. They all returned and did not improve. But to answer your question Nix should be better so that will improve. The schedule is easier so that should help the numbers. All starters on the skill positions return so that is a plus. Then of course you have Chad Morris, who despite his time at Arkansas, has put up impressive numbers. The formations will be very similar as Malzahn system but with more emphasis on throwing the ball. More over the middle, check downs to backs, etc. I’m not saying it will be the best in the conference but I would expect an improvement. Basically we lost the worst parts on the offense and return all the good parts. The main question is the OL but it has been for the past 4 years.
The defense will take a step back, no question about that. But Auburn, under Steele, hasn’t been below 5 in the conference in total defense. There is a lot of experience returning on that side of the ball. Garner rotates 6-7 guys a game and the secondary runs 5-6 guys at time depending on who they are playing (i.e. LSU, Bama). 3 of the top 6 tacklers come back as well.
The main thing is all of this is the schedule.. playing UNC instead of Oregon really helps. Yes Bama and UGA are on the road but both are breaking in new starters on O and replacing a lot on that side of the ball. A&M and LSU at home helps too then the crossover game is UK and not UF.
I like Newman and do think that some of their personnel losses on the Offense are overblown, but losing all this time will hurt Todd Monken as he tries to put in a new system. The defense will be nasty again but how far can that take them. Talent wise they should be 11-1 or 12-0. But i just dont see them winning at Bama in mid-September and they could trip up against Auburn, UF, or UK/UT. SC’s on the road too and they won in Athens last year. The schedule is a good bit harder imo. I say under at 10-2 with L’s to Bama and either AUB/UF.
10 wins is still a pretty good yr under a transition year for most programs, but with all the 5-stars i think its fair to expect more from UGA
UNDER @9-3. losses to Aub, SC, Bama
Bama, likely. Auburn, maybe. SC, not two years in a row.
I agree. Our defense will remember last year’s loss and be fueled to fire on all cylinders making up for any our offensive mishaps. They will do everything possible to not let SC score a single point.
Just be glad you got your fluke win last year and sit down
Javon Kinlaw was pretty much the reason SC won last year. Without him going into full beast mode, SC wont be winning two years in a row.
That Israel kid, I think that was his name, had like 3 interceptions didn’t he? I would say he heavily contributed to USC winning. USC earned the win, UGA deserved the L in that game
True, he also had a very large impact on the outcome of the game.
Wasn’t that Jake Fromms worst game ever?
It absolutely was
Yes,I completely agree!
Yes NC and Rod’s too. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Why is Georgia not want to get revenge on Alabama? But Georgia will against South Carolina? Why not get revenge on all of your losses from last year? Can’t get it done for some reason?
We didn’t play bama last year, you need to up your trolling game ol boi
It’s pay back time with SC. Count a beat down in Columbia East.
Factoring in the Bama game leaves no margin of error. I wouldn’t bet it, but an unbiased person would be smart to go under.
The general consensus will be that Bama will beat UGA. But, what if they don’t? The internet will lose its mind. We would have multiple articles about the passing of the torch and Saban in decline. No matter who wins this one, both teams will still control their own fate in their divisions. A rematch would be very possible, maybe even two rematches depending on how the games go.
I like the way you think
LSU- I was thinking the same thing about beating Bama and how that’d change this over/under debate. Not that I’m betting on either, but the consensus is the Dawgs take an L @ Bama and only need one more loss for the under. All that would sound drastically different if we manage to pull out a W.
As for the column writers at SDS, I find it hard to believe that (Cooper) UGA will be a heavy favorite to win the East and (Blackmon) UGA has the most talented WR in CFB. The East will be split between UGA and UF at close to 50/50. Nothing near a heavy favorite. And our WR room is becoming more talented by the year, but most talented? No… heck we’re probably in the 3-5 range in the SEC behind LSU and Bama.
In regards to the WR comment, probably depends what you mean by “talent”. If we’re going strictly by potential/recruiting rankings then the argument could be made that UGA matches up with Bama, LSU, etc. Pickens, Blaylock, Robertson, and the incoming Freshmen are a lot of WR “talent” on one team.
I’d still have to take issue with Blackmon’s comment. I admittedly haven’t checked all stats of Georgia’s WRs, but obviously we have returning Biletnikoff winner Chase. Terrace Marshall was leading the nation in TD catches when he got hurt, he missed 3 games and still finished 6th in the country in TDs. Racey McMath and Trey Palmer are proven, backed up by Jenkins and former QB Kirkland. Kayshon Boutte #1 HS receiver in LA coming in. Our WR room is experienced, accomplished, and deep. Blackmon made himself look foolish with that comment.
LSUMC, I see your point but I strongly believe Bama’s defense will be absolutely 110% better with Moses coming back and leading that defense and Surtain also help in leading the DB’s. The crowd and the pressure on our unknown offense led by a grad transfer QB from an ACC conf that will be thrown to the wolves so to speak early in his SEC conf debut. I wish the best, but the cards are stacked against us for this Bama showdown.
Honest assessment, and likely right on the money.
The regular season game against Bama isn’t really that important. The loser will still control their fate in their division. So, UGA could lose in week 3 to Alabama and still get a rematch in the CCG. Win that, and they should be playoff bound.
That’s true. Fingers and toes crossed.
At this point, picking UGA to beat Bama would be like picking Vandy to beat LSU. Though Vandy did prove they could put up points on LSU. UGA could somehow be a pass heavy offense this year,but Smart is anti-air attack unless his backs against the Wall. I would have picked a close game if say a QB like JT.Daniels came to UGA instead of Newman and hope Smart would wise up and choose to utilize a more dynamic passing scheme every game.
I think 10 wins is likely, though 11 wins is possible. It’s just hard to predict how good the offense will be with so many new pieces and no off season to begin the process of gelling them all together.
Isn’t it funny how the over/under is always in that right in between place? They do it on purpose and it drives me nuts.
I totally agree
Vegas is in the business of makin money.
You got that right, gambling of any kind these days has become all about the money. It’s kind of sad.
News flash!!! Gambling has always been about the money.
I would only go under because of the bama game. If the game wasn’t the third weekend I probably would go over but I don’t see the offense clicking on all cylinders by then, especially without spring ball. That leaves AU, UF, @UK, @USC and TN for one more loss. I think there’s one in there but wouldn’t surprise me if there wasn’t.
GatorbaitorU o/u is 9.5 as SEC East favorites this year and ours is 10.5???
What a bs article. UF 15-0 Uga 8-4
From the South Carolina game on last season, our offense was garbage. With that garbage offense we still beat Auburn and Floriduh because the defense was the best in the conference. That defense returns almost all the starters and will be better this year.
Given that the No. 2 defense in the nation will be better this year, the offense doesn’t have to improve at all to win 11 games. The odds are the offense will improve just for the simple fact that they will spread out and use the talent in space instead of continually running the ball up the middle into 9 man boxes from formations using 11-personnel.
That’s the thing that makes me want to bang my head into a brick wall here. No one uses even an ounce of logic when they run down Georgia’s chances this season. They talk about “rebuilding” the offensive line. That’s b.s. 4 positions on the line will be filled by players with a ton of snaps in the SEC. That’s not rebuilding. That’s reloading. Matt Luke had the o-line playing their best ball of the year down their two starting tackles against the best defense in the Big-12 in the Sugar Bowl. That’s not nothing.
The offense was so bad in the second half last year. You people act like Monken has some kind of immense task ahead of him. To win the East, he just needs to be as bad as that offense was and the defense will take care of the rest. That’s it. To think Monken can’t equal or improve even just a little on that garbage offense at all is a huge leap in logic y’all are making. It doesn’t matter how much time he has. He’s bonafide. He knows what he’s doing. And yes, the offense was just that bad in the second half of the year. Even just a minor improvement in the offense makes the Dawgs a playoff contender.
Are the Dawgs likely to lose to Bama? Yep. It will take some time to get the offense going. Probably about 4 or 5 games. Just in time for Auburn. Then Floriduh. Georgia’s not losing to Auburn at home. They haven’t done so in 15 years, even when Auburn brings a higher ranked team Between the Hedges. The Dawgs are not losing to Sideshow Dan the Clown. Kirby absolutely owns him. Sideshow Dan has never beaten Kirby as a head coach. It’s amazing how little that gets talked about here or anywhere. And Tennessee is a joke.
Dawgs go 11-1 and win the East again. All the dummies here will feel extra dumb post Cocktail Party, and then when the Dawgs destroy Tennessee for the fourth year in the row, they’ll really feel stupid.
diarrhea mouth corch has spoken again. yes we know corch. uga will win everything in college and then defeat the packers for the super bowl win….. Time to change the depends you wear around your mouth. the edges are seeping.
Except I didn’t say they would win everything. Unlike you, I applied logic and reason to what I had to say. You, as a dumb hillbilly, wouldn’t understand.
Logic and reason, LMAO
Is Tennessee as much of a joke today as USCjr was last season?
15 year win streak is pretty good but logic and reason will tell you it can’t last forever. By the same token beating Mullen at Florida 2 years in a row and whatever many times at MSU has no bearing on this coming season. “Kirby absolutely owns him” is not a reasonable or logical statement.
Then again you are the #1 Georgia Moron dumba$$ so it is logical and reasonable that you would spout all this manure and worse yet, believe it
Extra dumb,,, that actually is a nice fit for your comments you post.. I generally don’t act the personal attacks,, so I will refrain… Expect a loss at Bama,, plus a lot of tough games on the schedule… Watch Clemson vs Wake for all the hype on Newman,,,, 41 yds and 2 picks… Under and make some Easy Money!!!!
Unlike at Wake, Newman won’t be 80% of the offense at Georgia. He was Wake’s leading passer AND leading rusher. You don’t think that takes a toll? He also lost his top three receivers through the year, which impacted his performance.
I know context isn’t something you dumb hillbillies understand, but here’s some for you:
Newman doesn’t have to be great. Not many Dawg fans are expecting him to be great. All he has to be is good. That’s it. If he performs like Fromm performed in 2017 and 2018, we’ll beat your butts into the ground. Heck, even if he performs like Fromm in 2019 we’ll still beat your butts into the ground. That’s how good the defense is.
Take it from a Les Miles-era LSU fan, it takes more than a stout defense to consistently win the big games. It’s not about comparisons with Fromm and last year, if Monken implements a spread offense then it’s going to take time to gel and execute especially with the lack of Spring etc. Throw in Newman’s uncertainty against SEC defenses – and it could actually be worse than last year.
Love your hypocritical analysis. He lost his 3 best receiver during the year and that hurt. UGA is replacing 4 out of 5 lineman and your reloading.
Allow me to point out the unmistakable truth about the losses UGA has suffered since 2017. It lies on the coaching and Smart. Fromm wasn’t utilized nearly enough as a passer because Smart was hell bent on a ground game, not a pass attack. Your delusional if you think he’s going to start this season making passing a priority. I will believe it when i see it. Secondly, Fromm got worse as his years went on at UGA because he wasn’t utilized as a passer. He was a glorified play caller. Newman will be the next. Three players and down SEC east the last number of years made it possible for UGA to get to Atlanta, but sadly did not equal wins against elite and at times way lesser talented teams. Now you want us to believe he’ll wake up this year and rely more on a dynamic passing scheme and an offense line that is replacing four starters for it? In the midst of three key players gone. Fromm, a storied running back and a great kicker. Something drastically has to change at UGA this season to get to 10 regular season wins. Not impossible, just at this point, don’t see it and need to see it in the coaching first.
All snaps aren’t created equal. Experience together does. Saying y’all beat up a great Big 12 defensive is like bragging your the smartest kid in special ed.
Under. I think they got it backwards. Florida should have the 10.5 over/under, and Georgia should have the 9.5. I could be mistaken, but I’m going with common sense. Last year’s 3rd best SEC QB, very familiar with his offense, compared to last year’s 4th best ACC QB learning a new offense and still waiting for his first practice with his new teammates. Duh.
“…bounced back the next week with 284 yards and a TD pass to beat Duke. Newman beat up the bad teams on Wake Forest’s schedule, and I expect that trend to not only continue but grow at Georgia.”
Duke was 5 – 7 last year in the weak arse ACC, Wake and Newman beat them 24 – 14. How many SEC teams are the corresponding bad teams from the ACC? Only Vandy is as bad as your average ACC team not named Clemson. Point is you cannot extrapolate last years results in the ACC
into a full SEC season. Not the same, not even close. If Georgia has to put the team on Newman’s back they won’t get very far
“If Georgia has to put the team on Newman’s back they won’t get very far”
What an ignorant statement, on so many planes. But congratulations for getting out of bed before noon!
You think by week 3 when you play Bama, Newman will be ready for the SEC vs his former conference? LOL. In the SEC, without an elite experienced line protecting him, he’ll still be running for his life by the end of the season.Your replacing four starters on your O’line, so no elite line on O and a lot of newbies on D. Now that new QB you all got coming in, get him in early and often. You’d be essentially breaking in two new QB’s with a slight edge to Newman, and doing it in one season. Do this so you don’t have to start a brand new newby next year.
You could be right, but the same would have been said about Trask last year prior to FF injury as well could it not?
I’d also like to point out that Newman will
have a drastically better OL, WR, and RB situation than he did at Wake, not to mention an elite defense to lean on and not put him in bad situations. Not saying he’s going to go out there and light up the SEC, but it shouldn’t be ignored that he’ll be in a much better situation.
Elite Defense,,,, watch their elite performance against LSU,,, not elite,,, but very talented
They performed as well as just about anyone. Look at what LSU did to Clemson’s defense. And that’s with a Clemson O that actually gave them time to rest. They were a top 5 defense nationally best in the SEC, and second nationally in points allowed. Sounds elite to me….
I was at the game, watched every play live and then most on the jumbo-tron.
The UGA defense held tight for 3+ quarters, and that was with no support from the offense.
UGA had 0.0% chance of winning the game; the offense never showed up. That the defense didn’t throw in the towel speaks volumes to their character.
That said, the LSU game was the statistical-outlier/anomaly of the season for the UGA defense. UGA also played ND, UF, AU and Baylor.
UGA’s defense wasn’t just elite last season, they were the best defense in the Nation last season. Barring injuries 2020 will be a repeat.
Except for late in the game against the back-ups and walk-ons, UT will be lucky to score in Athens GA next season.
Now run along hillbilly
Georgia’s defense absolutely is elite. But like many elite Florida defenses from 2010 to 2016, you can’t stop a good opponent for an entire game when your offense keeps giving the ball back.
Sooner or later the dam breaks. Defenders who are elite still get tired by the fourth quarter if they’re on the field too much.
The big difference is that Trask And the rest of the offense has been running the same scheme for 2 years. Not only will Newman be learning a new offense but so will everybody else. The question is was Newman a great player on a bad team or a great player against bad teams. Using his game against Clemson is extremely unfair because of the huge disparity in talent.
OK, let’s go beyond just Clemson.
His three “great” games (72-77% completion rate) were against Elon, Rice and Utah State. I didn’t know Elon even had a football team.
His completion rate against Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Clemson was 43-46%. He was 44% against Michigan State in a bowl game.
He was at 54%, 56% and 59% against North Carolina, Duke and Louisville, respectively. He was better, 64% and 66% against BC and NC State, respectively.
He played in six games the previous year and was around 60% (no Clemson), but against FSU, he was a stunningly bad 38%. FSU was a mess in 2018 but still had the fifth best roster in the country per 247.
Look, I’m biased and I know it. And let me just say that Jamie Newman seems like a team guy and a good kid. But the more I look at him both on film and statistically, I see pretty much the guy the recruiting services saw coming out of high school.
And once again, no mention of the 4 sacks and 12 hurries against SpartacusU 1 sack and 11 hurries against ClemGooberU, 3 sacks and 9 hurries against PolyGobbleU and so on…for Christmas sake he got sacked 3 fri gun times against vaunted Utah St…and did you notice any correlation to November games and injuries? But that’s ok, he clearly suck s and we have no chance…but we have a Stetson gassed up and ready to go…
No, no mention of sacks and hurries. A sack is when you get tackled before you are able to throw the ball, correct?
As for hurries, what exactly constitutes a hurry? Versus, say, finding a receiver within a certain period of time and getting rid of the ball. I’m sure Michigan State was pressuring him with that number of hurries, if true, just as I am sure he may very well see that sort of pressure against Alabama, Auburn, Florida, and maybe South Carolina.
Hurries are kinda forcing the QB to pass or run before he is set. It can be recorded as a hurry or tfl but you’re right, unimportant. The pressure in the sec jamie will see will certainly be more like the ClemGoob game week to week, guess we’ll see, if in fact he actually wins the starting job then I’ll suppose I’ll have to trust that Kirby knows best…
You say you can’t extrapolate last year’s results in the ACC, but then you try to extrapolate last year’s results in the ACC. Point is, you might want to have your Gators focus on getting off the field on 3rd down. Or, I don’t know, not letting UGA’s most productive receiver run wide open down the field. Those are the problems you should focus on. Not what Jamie Newman is going to do. 102-41….
As awful as UGA’s offense was the second half of last season, they looked like miracle workers in Jacksonville, getting nearly every 3rd down converted throughout the game. Trask is very good but he was and is all they have. No running game, no win.
That’s true. The team that has the most rushing yards usually wins the cocktail party.
I think way too much is made about Newman’s performance against Clemson. If I’m not mistaken (which I might be), he didn’t have all three of his most reliable (and talented) receivers that game. Wake also doesn’t have the OL or RBs that Georgia has. So that greatly impacted Clemson’s game plan, which was to clearly neuter Wake’s offensive firepower, ie Newman. If Newman starts for Georgia, teams won’t be able to key in on him as much as Clemson was able to due to VAST difference in talent level and the schematic differences on offense. Put Burrow, Tua, or Trask on Wake last year and all three would look worse than when on offenses brimming with talent.
I think right now, without having seen spring practice, you have to take the under. 10-2, whether it’s losses to Alabama and Florida or losses to Alabama and Auburn or South Carolina.
It could even be 9-3. While Georgia’s defense will keep the score down in most of their games, their offense could be the worst unit on the field in as many as four games: Alabama, Florida, Auburn and South Carolina. Auburn is a home game. South Carolina isn’t.
About South Carolina vs. Georgia: For all the criticism of Will Muschamp, he’s an excellent defensive mind and he clearly figured out how to stall Georgia last year. And as I’ve said before, Ryan Hilinski is a good quarterback, now with a year of experience and a very good OC (in my opinion, the best Muschamp has ever had). With an also improved S&C program that should reduce injuries, I believe it’s possible the Gamecocks can scheme around their talent deficit and pull a second upset, especially at home with a crowd that will be going insane if they have something to cheer about.
vs. Alabama: First, it’s in Tuscaloosa. Second, it’s Week 3 with a new OC, new scheme, new quarterback and no spring practice. Third, I believe Alabama’s 2020 defense will be every bit as good as Georgia’s. Fourth, no former Saban assistant has ever beat him. Kind of a weird statistic, but I certainly don’t think that changes in this game.
vs. Auburn: I don’t have a clue what to think about Auburn. They’re a black box. Talented with an experienced quarterback, and their defense will be well coached. But offensive coaching, scheme, play-calling? I just have no idea what to expect.
vs. Tennessee: As I said about Florida’s over/under yesterday, I think Tennessee is still a couple years away. With the passing game struggles I expect them to have next season, they might actually get shut out by Georgia in 2020. I think 10 points is probably their 2020 ceiling in Athens.
vs. Kentucky: Kentucky has a solid roster and plays everybody tough these days. they are very well coached. I just think they’re going to be out-talented by the Georgia defense.
vs. Florida: I think an improved Florida offensive line and a Georgia offensive line that loses two first round tackles may be the difference in this game in 2020. And as I’ve commented on other articles, I’m not sold on Jamie Newman. Georgia’s defense can be beaten by an elite passing attack and I think Florida will have one in 2020. Incidentally, field goals were the difference in the 2019 Cocktail Party. I think Georgia is going to miss Hot Rod.
As for Neil’s statement that Georgia has “the most talented wide receiver room in the country,” I haven’t bothered to see if that’s true based upon high school star ratings. It might be. But it isn’t true on the field. I would rank them fourth just within the SEC. While Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver in the country, I think Alabama’s group is better overall than LSU’s going into the season. Florida is third and might end up being second, with a strong corps of guys who are talented, have solid game experience and have been well coached.
Florida is third…bless your heart
When I think elite passing attack, I think Borrow and Tua with their seemingly unending corps of NFL receivers and stout OLs. I’m just not convinced Trask will make the leap from great to elite. I think Florida’s offense, and passing attack, will be great and very dangerous. But I’m not yet convinced it will be truly elite. For that, among other things, there has to be an element that at any moment the QB can scramble and hit a WR 60 yards downfield. Trask is killer in the short and intermediate passing game, but I don’t think his mobility and deep throw are top shelf enough to make him, and by extension Florida’s offense, elite.
That’s a pretty high bar. But I think Florida’s top three pass catchers next year will all be high round draft picks when they leave Florida: Copeland, Grimes and Pitts. The pass protection last year was fine, save for the Auburn game. Run blocking was the problem.
Scrambling was a big part of Burrow’s game against better opponents, but I don’t think scrambling is a required component of a high level passing attack. Peyton Manning and most of the better Florida and Georgia quarterbacks were pretty much pocket statues. And Trask’s arm is stronger than most observers seem to give him credit for, maybe because they’re comparing him to Franks. He can make every throw he needs to make. And just as an aside, very, very few passes are thrown to receivers, at any level, who are 60 or more yards downfield when they catch the ball.
If Trask speeds up his progressions and gets rid of the ball faster, I think he can be elite.
Most elite qbs can move around the pocket, and outside of the pocket. They may not be able to scramble for a lot of yards, but they are NOT statues. Aaron Murray was NOT a statue, Matthew Stafford was NOT a statue.
That being said, I agree with you that a scrambling qb is not a necessary component for a high level passing attack.
The reference to 60 yard passes was admittedly an exaggeration, but Burrow and Tua had beautiful deep balls and could easily hit receivers in stride at seemingly any depth downfield. I will freely admit that I have not watched every throw from Trask, but from what I’ve seen it just appears to not be at the same level. I also freely admit I could very well be wrong. Your other points are very good too.
“Statues” was too strong a description and not what I really meant. The better guys can all feel the rush and move in the pocket.
Nashvillegator has a point. WB’s that have that “3rd eye” or “6th sense” know how long to hold the ball before getting rid of it.
^QB’s
Wrong. TN owns you at the line this season and a host of more talent this season over last. You faced a freshman QB against TN. This isn’t happening this year, but should you it will be against Bailey. A vastly better QB than Muarer was. Also, how are you going to stop TN this year on the ground TN can run on you with a better O’line and a host of better backs? TN will have a much easier time scoring on UGA overall than UGA will have scoring on TN. Plus, when TN has a winning record in November, UGA has only beaten TN once, 1973. By the time November rolls around, your going to be facing TN’s starting QB out of a possible 7 talented QB’s, not a freshman making his debut. Before any games played and until i see otherwise. TN beat UGA. When TN has a winning record, on average we have no issues winning in Athens.
I’d take the over on this one. I can’t see UGA losing more than 2 games in the regular season. If they beat Bama in week three, then whoever bet on the over will be sitting pretty for the rest of the season.
I don’t see them losing more than two either, but two losses is under. Jamie Newman’s learning curve will be a much bigger deal than most observers seem to think; being as good as he can be in Week 3 is just too much to ask. And even if you were to concede that Bama and Georgia have roughly equal rosters, you still have to give Bama a home field edge. And there’s zero chance they take Georgia lightly.
Based on what? The three players they relied on for wins are gone and also their O’line are a bunch of newbies. Without a more dynamic passing attack this season, UGA could lose to UF, TN, Bama and a few others. They aren’t beating Bama in week three with a average QB making his SEC debut. Period. Until I see different dynamic offensive coaching at UGA, this will be a UGA team lucky to win 9 or 10 games.
9 if they get the calls that Bama gets every game, 8 if they don’t.
Dawgs do have a few question marks going into season ( if we have one) but still CFP favorite for a reason. Defense and more defense. If you look at Dawgs last season went 11-1 with a mediocre offense and elite D… how can the O be worse or less consistent? Had some key injuries and played LSU with a FCS receiving corp for the most part and without Swift. Still were able to make some stops in Atlanta and give team a chance. There won’t be an offense like LSU had in the conference this year and Dawgs are loaded again. Auburn got wiped out and Florida is overhyped. Kyle Trask….really? Really excited to see what O looks like…lots of talent and explosive guys. Go Dawgs!!!!!
UGA was elite on ground D, not air D. Evidenced in the TN game as a freshman making his debut marched down the field and put up way more yard than he should have against a supposed elite air D. Also, when UGA faced upper tier QB, they were shredded. Got less of all that coming back this year for me to think elite UGA D this year. Also throw in better UF, TN and yes Bama teams this year, over last year. TN and UF are building programs to beat playoff teams, UGA’s coaching staff without developing the secondary D and a dynamic passing attack is merely looking to hold off the SEC east. Notice recruiting in the SEC. Love UGA but not the coaching staff.
Bratton accurately points out that Jamie Newman has “a steep learning curve playing with new teammates in a tougher league,” and that Georgia faces potential offensive disaster “due in part to a lack of spring football and a quick installation of the new offensive system…” Not wishing that – I like Georgia – but a distinct possibility.
No disaster. If the passing game is misfiring they’ll just revert to what Kirby, deep down in his heart, would really rather do anyway and run the ball. And they’ll run it pretty effectively.
Yes, that’s always has and always will be the bread and butter unless says, “Hey, Monken, it’s all you, man.” When things start to go south, Kirby will say “Monken, it’s on you”.
I’m curious what the offense is going to look like combining Kirby’s tendencies and Monken’s expertise…maybe a little like Florida with spread O that runs a lot?
See Muschamp, Will, 2012-14, 2016-2019.
Jerk.
Oh, come on. Lighten up. First Leghumper calling Mullen a POS. Now this. It is highly unlikely that Georgia would ever sink to the levels of Muschamp’s offensive dysfunction under Kirby. I. Was. Kidding.
lol
Who’s Mullen? I called Mullet a p o s. But in an attempt to update my unscrupulous snake speak, Mullet is no longer a p o s…he’s now to be known as coach chunk o’ feculence…GooberCoF for short
How’s that for lightening up Nash?
Obviously not good enough Humper. You need to down a few to really lighten up
Excuse me, but the “CoF” portion of your acronym has a sound akin to the word “cough”. Please take it down or you will be sued for fear-mongering, hate speech, misappropiation, and discrimination against less well peoples.
I think Georgia is the toughest to predict. New QB, new line and new offense with spring practice leaves a lot of questions. Their margin for error is also smaller with the schedule. I can see the defense keeping them in every game though while the offense settles in. Tough call so I’ll flip a coin and say under.
Well since I can’t pick 10.5, I’ll go with the under but just barely.
Dawgs have turmoil on the offensive side, especially the OL but also QB and RB.
Their defense is among the best and they rotate a lot to stay fresh.
It would be safe to assume that there will be a drop-off at PK with Rodrigo gone.
Even with the losses, their top 5 recruiting classes the last 4+ years should have ample replacements ready to fill in.
The lack of Spring Training will hurt them more than most, especially on Offense which is more timing based.
Alabama game early hurts too.
I see 2 losses, but that’s about it. Hopefully one of them is on 14 Nov!
“Yes, the Bulldogs are a heavy favorite to win the SEC East again”
Who is offering those odds? Because i’ve seen UGA and UF fairly close. If someone’s offering shorter odds on UGA (and thus longer odds on UF) there’s good value in their UF odds.
Easy decision. Over. This team will get 11 wins again on the back of what should be the nation’s #1 or #2 defense. They’ll lose one game to either UF or Alabama.
Took my dumb butt forever to figure out these over/under totals are set for the 12 game regular season.
15-0
under because of the offense won’t be stable yet
I still don’t see it as Fromm. Remember, whose in charge of preparing players to perform. The coaching staff at UGA failed to continue to develop Fromm’s passing, particularly the long ball. When UGA were playing cupcakes they refused to execute passing schemes and reform new ones. It was ground or bust and that over a few years corroded Fromm’s ability and surely hampered them when they needed it against better teams like Bama, LSU, Texas, even SC. With improvements at TN’s lines this season as well as a few other schools, UGA is not going to be able to ground game out wins as easily. Also baffling was the continued benching of Fields when he was there. I get Fromm was the starter but virtually no playing time for a player of Fields caliber only solidifies in my mind, UGA’s issues stem from coaching, not from a quality player aspect. So, until I see a dramatic change in the coaching at UGA, 9 or 10 wins regular season but without dramatic change, fewer than 9 could happen.