SDS Roundtable: Texas A&M's over/under is 9.5 wins. How many games will the Aggies win in 2020?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: How many regular-season games will Texas A&M win in 2020?
A bit of background …
Texas A&M won 10 games 1 time in the previous 21 seasons. They did so in 2012, their first year in the SEC. They’ve averaged 8 wins in the 7 seasons since.
Optimism is building, though, as the Aggies enter the 2020 season as dark-horse favorites to win the SEC West.
Part of it is the schedule, which is considerably friendlier than last year. Part of it is the fact that Kellen Mond is a 3-year starter entering his senior season. And it’s also Year 3 under Jimbo Fisher, who won a national title at Florida State.
The over/under win projection for the regular season is 9.5. Is this the year the Aggies break through?
Jon Cooper, SDS co-founder
Texas A&M has 1 of the most manageable schedules in college football. Out-of-conference games against Abilene Christian, North Texas, Colorado and Fresno State should be 4 wins. Match that with SEC crossover games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and the Aggies should go undefeated in non-SEC West games. Wins should also come against Arkansas, Mississippi State, Auburn and Ole Miss. Playing Alabama and LSU in back-to-back games will be brutal, but I just talked myself into 10 wins for Texas A&M.
In order for that to happen — and the Aggies not lose a team they’re favored against, Kellen Mond has to take a big step this year against the better teams and defenses. He struggled against Alabama, Clemson and LSU last season, and that simply can’t happen if 10 wins are on the horizon.
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
Under.
I know, I know. I’ve seen the schedule. I know that A&M’s only real test in those first 10 games should be that trip to Auburn. Everyone is anticipating a 9-1 or even a 10-0 start in College Station. If Jimbo Fisher isn’t 9-1, yikes. He won’t be on the hot seat, but the “is he still an elite coach” question will be a tough one to defend for the pro-Jimbo crowd.
Here’s what I keep coming back to. I’ve seen a lot of Kellen Mond over the past 3 years. He’s a decent college quarterback. He can beat you in more ways than any SEC quarterback heading into 2020. But you know what I don’t like? If he was as good as he said he was, his team would’ve led for more than 7 minutes and 42 seconds against top-15 teams last year (based on the final AP Top 25). A&M hasn’t beaten a quality SEC foe on the road since Sept. 2016.
I need to see it to believe it before I put my chips on the Aggies to make that jump.
Michael Bratton, News editor
This is a stay away for me. I’ve been saying Texas A&M could very well be 10-0 heading into the final 2 games of the season and I have confidence the Aggies will be able to play with LSU and Alabama this year, but it’s tough for me to predict them winning either game.
If the Aggies lose a single game before hitting the trip to Tuscaloosa and hosting LSU in College Station, I feel like the under will be the safer option.
I’m high on the Aggies, but until we actually see Jimbo Fisher’s program elevate into an elite program in the SEC, I would put my money on the under given that there are no automatic wins in the SEC West.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
The over/under is pretty much spot-on. I have the Aggies at 9-1 entering their final 2 games, which are at Alabama and at home against LSU. Going into Bryant-Denny Stadium against a Crimson Tide team that should still be playing for a potential spot in the College Football Playoff won’t be easy.
I’ll chalk the Alabama game up as a loss, which puts them at 9-2 entering the LSU game. Considering all the talent LSU lost from last year’s title-winning team, I wouldn’t expect a 50-7 beatdown like the Tigers handed the Aggies in 2019. This game will answer the question of whether Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies are ready to take the next step forward or not.
I say they beat LSU this year, so give me the over on 9.5 wins. They’ll finish the regular season 10-2 and in second place in the SEC West behind Alabama.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
If Texas A&M doesn’t win 10 regular-season games in 2020, then when will it?
If Jimbo Fisher doesn’t win 10 games in 2020, then the Aggies hired the wrong guy.
Paying a coach $1M per win seems a bit, well, generous, but that’s where the Aggies are: Fisher is making $7.5 million a year and in 2 years has delivered 15 regular-season wins, or 7.5 per year. He’s 2-0 in bowl games, but let’s be honest, the Aggies didn’t give him a record contract to win the Texas Bowl.
This has to be the year the Aggies jump LSU and Auburn and challenge Alabama for the SEC West crown. Even a 6-2 SEC season would be disappointing, even though that’s the best the Aggies have ever done.
They should be no worse than 9-1 when they visit Alabama on Nov. 21. They have the easiest crossover among West contenders. The nonconference slate is so worry-free that it will be called into question if the Aggies find themselves in the Playoff discussion.
The schedule screams 10-2, at worse.
If the Aggies finish 9-3, boosters will be screaming. And rightfully so, too.
Cooper: “Auburn should be a win.”
*checks notes* A&M hasn’t beat Auburn since 2016.
I wouldn’t mark that up as a win.. Mond is 0-3 vs Auburn and is 0-5 on the road vs ranked teams. A&M has all the pieces but I don’t trust Fisher without Winston. I’m on the under here.. with 9 wins.
Ditto. I don’t see them coming into Auburn and winning. 9-3
With Auburn/Alabama/LSU on the schedule, 9-3 is respectable. Boosters have nothing to yell about except the Athletic Department’s financial department’s decisions.
Lot of truth there, lol. So 9 wins, what’s that equate to…a cool million a win for Jumbo? That’s a good deal
7.5 divided by 9 does not equal one buddy. Isn’t UGA supposed to be a good school?
I wouldn’t know, I went to aTm…
Too funny….
It was to perfect to pass…lol
It was a visiting team win swap before 2017. Part of why Summie got a 10M buyout was he couldn’t win home games against the likes of the barners. And I really don’t see anything on the barner roster in 2020. Gus Bus gets has another blowout in the Birmingham Bowl in 2020.
And let’s see.. what happened in 2018? Oh yeah Fisher came to a real conference. A lot of smack for a mid-term SEC team.. Jeremy Johnson walked into the 12th man and won.. lol. Hope you’re ready to pay another buy out.
The way college football typically works for all but a few programs, they’ll finally lose to South Carolina this year.
Not saying I’d put money on the pick, but the offense is a wild card.
The Aggies are not close to elite. We know who their QB is after seeing him 3yrs in the same system. Mond is avg at best and inconsistent as a passer.
The Aggies have a great chance at 10 wins simply because they have an extremely weak sked. They have 4 cupcakes OOC with Vandy as one of the crossovers. That’s an ASSumed 5-0 off the bus. I think they lose 1 from group of SC, ST, Arky, Ole Miss. I also think they lose 2 from Aub, Bama, and LSU. I got the Aggies 9-3 due to the weak sked.
I’m all Aggie yet I have only seen Mond in this system 2 years, so…
OK, 1 yr in a very QB friendly offense and 2 yrs in Jimbo’s system results in 3yrs of slightly below average QB play from Mond. There, fixed it for you.
What’s with Bratton? On two previous articles he’s got the Aggies as 1 of the Tides for sure 3 losses! He says it’s possible the Tide losses 4 games! Why is he waffling here on the Aggies? Seems to be hedging his bet! Lol
I can see Jimbo’s guys making a Quantum-Leap this year(schedule)…and could/possibly/maybe get to Ten(10) Wins…but Kellen Mond has got to be more consistent and actually Hit The Open Receivers For Those 1st downs.
His play has hurt A & M…and it seems that when it’s on-the-line, well he isn’t focused. Unless Mond improves a Nine(9) win Season is the top. At least that’s how I see it.
Jimbo is not changing quarterback because he thinks this time Mond gets it done this time around. If not he will get booed from fans and recruits might not want to play for him. Like Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn got to get the offense going against top teams. I know it is hard to do that but Fisher got paid big money to get it done!
7
Jumbo needs to write bigger checks?
Dude…don’t encourage him
If they beat all of the teams they are supposed to, they are at nine wins. They would then have to beat one of the three traditional powers in the West in order to get to 10. They certainly seem capable, but I’m going to say they don’t get there. It could be a loss on the road to SC or MSU that derails them, but I suspect something will. Maybe that’s just my hope talking though.
9-3 if they stumble once. I think the Aggies are able to beat one of the big 3 in the west but SC or MSST could pick them off, Ole Miss isn’t quite stable enough yet. remember that Arkansas for some reason always keeps it close against them
remember that Arkansas for some reason always keeps it close against them
I know why! Chad Morris is an Aggie! Texas A&M did not want to blow out Arkansas when he was the head coach of Arkansas. Now he is gone and Texas A&M should win by 2 touchdowns!
15 obviously
This is some pure up clickbait. Talk about what A&M has on roster. Talk less about some theoretical W/L record. And please quit with the history lessons. What a team did 20 years ago has nothing to do with right now. What did the greatest team ever (2019 LSU) do in 2018? 8-4 with a cupcake G5 game win, barely.
The Aggies are going to be in 12 personnel a lot provided Cupp & Wydermyer are good to go. Demas is a superhuman that I can’t wait to see on the field. Yes. Kellen has not really lived up to his billing. If Jimbo lets him run like he did in the Texas Bowl it’s a game changer.
Hopefully my fellas will get to shut some yappers up. Looking at you barners. And that SCar fan? LOL. Run home. LSU? Had the season of the century in 2019 no doubt. You think Jimbo & Co. don’t have that game circled on the schedule?
All that said I just hope there is a season.
Not sure where you get an LSU 2018 record of 8-4. They were 8-4 in 2016, 9-4 in 2017, and 10-3 in 2018, and 15-0 in 2019. That’s called an upward trend.
He’s just salty. Easier to blame the media and other fans than to admit your team hasn’t performed up to hopes.
IDK, no doubt Clemson, bama (with healthy Tua), and LSU were not competitive. In hindsight, with as many first-time players playing key roles, they did pretty well. “Up to hopes”, probably not. I do expect 10 wins this season, all things considered.
pretty well *against Auburn and UGA.
10 wins is certainly an attainable goal. I wouldn’t mind if they fell short though.
After what happened in 2018, Coach O is going to have the A&M game circled every year. Twice.
6
Getting to 10 wins with this schedule should be well within hopes if Mond shows even slight improvement over last year. That being said, that’s not all on him. The OL has to take a pretty significant leap so that the run game can evolve and get some of the pressure off Mond’s arm. What was supposed to be one of the strongest units on the field last year turned into a pretty big liability. With the returning talent and experience, they should be able to get it done. Will they? We’ll see.
I agree 10 wins would really only need slight improvement with Mond and the O-line. I have no doubt their will be more talent/depth available at TE, WR and RB. Defense is very similar. I can see slight improvement at DE and DB. The DTs and LBs are as good as I’ve seen in Aggieland since Wrecking Crew days.
Under….