SDS Roundtable: Who wins more games in 2020: Ole Miss or Mississippi State?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: Their win projections are similar, but who will win more games in 2020: Ole Miss or Mississippi State?
A bit of background …
Both Egg Bowl rivals have new coaches, new offensive-minded coaches. Both promise to be fun to watch in 2020, even if that doesn’t automatically guarantee a bowl bid.
Mississippi State, under new coach Mike Leach, has an over/under win projection of 6.5.
Ole Miss, under new coach Lane Kiffin, has an over/under win projection of 5.5.
If those are close to accurate, we could have another Egg Bowl in which the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser goes home.
So who ends up with more wins in 2020? That’s something we’ve been discussing for a while.
Jon Cooper, SDS co-founder
With both teams having first-year coaches and no spring practice, Mississippi State and Ole Miss could struggle getting out of the gate in 2020. When you look at both schedules, you can circle the Egg Bowl as the game that will decide which team will hit the over. Right now, I’d take Mississippi State to hit the over of 6.5 wins and Ole Miss hitting the under of 5.5 wins.
MSU has more talent entering 2020 and a coach who is prone to score points. It also has a quarterback in Stanford transfer KJ Costello who can spin it. MSU faces SEC West murderer’s row against Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU and Auburn in 4 consecutive games. Can MSU upset 1 of them? Regardless, the Bulldogs should have wins against New Mexico, NC State, Arkansas, Tulane, Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama A&M and Ole Miss. That hits the over.
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
I’ll take Mississippi State. I’m not sure there will be much separation, but I have a hard time envisioning Ole Miss slowing down many teams this year. I wasn’t sold on Lane Kiffin’s defensive hires, and a unit that improved a ton under Mike McIntyre during his lone season in Oxford could revert back to its 2017-18 ways. That’ll limit Ole Miss’ upside, though I’m a major John Rhys Plumlee supporter.
Mississippi State got a major boost by getting both Kylin Hill and Erroll Thompson back for 1 more year. Both are All-SEC caliber players who could be the veteran voices on their respective sides of the ball. That combination plus the proven pass-heavy offense of Mike Leach should at least get MSU into that 6-7 win range.
MSU also has the more favorable nonconference and crossover draws. If this really does come down to 1 game separating the 2 as BetOnline believes it will, that can make all the difference.
Michael Bratton, News editor
This is an impossible question for me to answer given that we didn’t get to see these teams practice in the spring and both enter the season with completely overhauled coaching staffs, but if I have to make a pick, I’ll lean toward Ole Miss.
I’ve got nothing against Mike Leach. I think he could be the perfect fit for Mississippi State, and as we’ve seen in recent SEC history with Ed Orgeron at LSU and with Joe Moorhead in Starkville, the fit of a head coach can be essential to them having success at a school.
That being said, I’m not sold on K.J. Costello being the answer under center after studying his film from last season and I don’t think Garrett Shrader will be very effective in Leach’s offense, either. Kylin Hill will be the best weapon Mississippi State has on the field next season, but will Leach utilize him enough?
When it comes to Ole Miss, Rebel fans have openly mocked me for saying Matt Luke had some momentum building in Oxford, but the team’s record didn’t do much to indicate that last season. Ole Miss dropped several games that could have easily gone the other way. I think Lane Kiffin inherits more talent than many outside the state of Mississippi may realize — led by my favorite young quarterback in the league, John Rhys Plumlee.
This answer will likely be determined by the outcome of the Egg Bowl and I’ll lean slightly to the Rebels to win that game in Oxford until I see these two take the field in 2020.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
I predict Ole Miss will be 5-6 entering the Egg Bowl. I have Mississippi State entering that game with a 6-5 record. That makes this a very difficult question. Therefore, I’ll go with history, and history says Mike Leach doesn’t fare well in rivalry games. He went 1-7 against Washington in the Apple Cup during his time at Washington State, winning his first matchup in 2012 and then dropping 7 straight. During his time at Texas Tech, he went 2-8 vs. Texas.
Yes, I realize that Texas and Washington were higher-profile programs than Texas Tech and Washington State, but not being able to beat your rivals is a bit concerning. I think his Air Raid offense will catch some teams by surprise this year, but in the Egg Bowl, I think John Rhys Plumlee, Jerrion Ealy and the Ole Miss offense will run all over the Bulldogs to even their records at 6-6.
So, for this question, that means I’m taking the over for Ole Miss and the under for Mississippi State, but I think they’ll finish the regular season with identical 6-6 records.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
I like Ole Miss for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, Lane Kiffin understands exactly what it takes to win in this league. He’s done it, too.
I like the Rebels’ playmakers, too. Jerrion Ealy, in particular, will be fun to watch the next 2 seasons. And Kiffin will develop John Rhys Plumlee into more than a Lynn Bowden-type running threat at QB.
(I also like the fact that Ealy and Plumlee won’t be worn down from a full college baseball season. Because neither freshman is eligible for the draft, they probably transitioned back to football mode as soon the SEC canceled spring sports.)
I know Mike Leach’s system is going to throw for a lot of yards. KJ Costello should contend for the SEC title in passing yards. Leach’s quarterbacks normally do. But just as Jimbo Fisher and Joe Moorhead quickly learned, everything about offense is a bit more difficult when the guys you’re going against are NFL-caliber players.
Leach will have a bigger adjustment preparing for the SEC than the SEC will have in preparing for Leach.
There’s no such learning curve for Kiffin. He knows what works, what doesn’t and he also has some next-level athletes to make it happen.
Kiffin will razzle-dazzle his way to a bowl game in Year 1 and finish with more wins (7-5) than the Bulldogs (5-7).
Miss St in a landslide..
OM schedule is brutal. I got MSU at 8-4 and OM at 5-7. I think the air raid is going to shock some people this year..
You must be high. Miss State will have at least 6 losses.
Yes, I’m high on the Bulldogs. I think they beat your aggies as well. Wins include: NM, NCST, Ark, Tulane, A&M, Alabama A&M, OM and Missouri. Could be 9 with a win at UK but don’t think that will happen.
I like ^ this guy.
Missouri?! LOL no way!
Missouri should be one of their losses.
A key principle of the air raid is to have a relatively smaller number of plays that you practice a ton. There typically aren’t a bunch of pre-snap reads or routes that develop based on what the DB does immediately post-snap. It requires razor-sharp execution and the offense being in sync. That might be hard without a regular off season to install everything and for players to gel. Air raids can also lengthen a game by not killing the clock, especially with a lot of 3-and-outs. So if MSU’s offense isn’t working against a team, their defense will need to be stout for all 4 quarters.
I think you mean by killing the clock.. but I get your point. I just think the schedule is favorable except the big 3 in the west. They should start off 4-0 with A&M coming into town. They should be clicking by then too. Then probably 0-33 vs Bama, LSU and AU. Home against a new/young coach in Missouri should be a win as well as Alabama A&M and OM. That’s 7 wins with toss up at Kentucky and A&M at home.
0-3 not 0-33 lol
Missouri ran one similar with Drew Lock as the quarterback. Did not work very well. The running game did not opened up and that is what hurt Missouri. This is going to be very similar to what MSU will run and that proved it not work very well. That is why Missouri changed head coach to get the offense fix.
Agreed…Mike Leach has been a Head Football coach for a while, and I tend to think that Mississippi State might steal a game this year. those DB’s and Safeties will be getting tired in the Fourth Quarter & the passes in the Air-Raid-Offense just keep coming.
I tend to agree with Chris Wright, although as I’ve said before I wouldn’t rule out seeing Matt Corral at quarterback and Plumlee as a slot or wide receiver.
MSU could win as few as three games. Ole Miss could win just five.
3 games with Costello? That would really be underachieving..
I agree. I’d love to see him and Leach do better. But then there’s the reality of the SEC West, probably not great pass protection or wide receivers, SEC DBs and edge rushers…
Look back what Drew Lock did! He was in a similar air raid system. Also the run game was not there. That is why Drew Lock did not get drafted as a high first rounder. Air raid system does not work! Need to mix it up and have a good running game. Balance the run and the throw. That is the key! If many box the run then you get the throws and that will get nowhere! That will be like the air raid system.
Both teams possibly have 7 losses going into this game… best case scenario MS has 4 losses and OM has 5 losses when they meet.
“Leach will have a bigger adjustment preparing for the SEC than the SEC will have in preparing for Leach.”
Does Chris Wright know Leach has coached in the SEC before? I’d say the SEC definitely had to adjust to Kentucky those years.
Missouri ran similar when Drew Lock was the quarterback! Very similar offense. Not good fit against SEC defense.
Missouri’s problem was not offense when Lock was there.. it was defense.
The mediocre teams did, Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia would still beat us like a drum in those days. Gimmicks always get snuffed out in this conference. No disrespect to Leach’s genius, I just don’t think it works in the SEC
True NotsameoldKY, but that was when the East was the toughest division in the nation. UT, UF and UGA were loaded each year, especially UT and Floriduh. KY was giving us all we wanted with half the talent.
NotSame – fair enough that opponents figured it out to a degree, but Leach did set SEC and NCAA records in just 2 years at Kentucky and helped produce the #1 draft pick at QB. I wouldn’t call the Air Raid / Spread Offense a gimmick, we’ll see some version of it completely dominate football at all levels sooner than later unless there’s a Bo Jackson or Herschel Walker on the roster. I don’t think LSU is moving away from it any time soon.
Missouri did not have running game! That is what hurt against the better defensive teams. Many good defensive teams were boxing the run and forcing the throws. Became one dimension offense. Florida was one team that Dan Mullen blows a game or two. Then next year flat out sucks. Why was Missouri bad against good teams other than Florida. Missouri failed to win 9 games!
All valid points. UK completely ignored defense back then, and everything evolves. Gimmick was a poor choice of words. I do think for a team like UK, we have a better chance to compete with the elite conference teams doing what Stoops is doing. Stout D, run the ball, etc. if you have the best athletes like LSU did, it works better. If you don’t, it’s a tough row to hoe.
Gotta admit I’m not up to speed on UK except hearing y’all are on the upswing. Good luck! A stout D is always a necessary ingredient, and elite athletes obviously make a difference, but I’m reminded of Les Miles at LSU. Honestly I’d love to see a team who could do it with more running than passing, but I think those days are about over.
Our switch to a 3-3-5 may be as much or more interesting given that so many teams are pass happy this year, but it gets little or no mention in most discussions. Some of my best memories as a fan go back to earlier days of running this scheme, including our SEC CG.
When did State play in a SEC CG? Maybe I misunderstood your post but I don’t think State has ever played in that game. Last won the west in what, 1998 and the SEC in the 40’s. I do like the formation though. Wasn’t it Kines that ran it at State? I should have started the post by asking if minded taking a survey.
Joe Lee Dunn (who had great success at UM, also for awhile) ran it at MSU. We lost to UT in the SEC CG in 1998. We actually had a little more than a punchers shot in that game, but lost, of course. When JLD was at UM, they beat us one year with a very memorable goal line stand in Oxford. When JLD was at State his bst defenses made for the most fun football that I’ve ever watched. With Sherrill’s demise from our NCAA residency, JLD kind of lost his momentum, too. They say that our new DC’s mentor learned it from JLD and has updated it to stop the spread. We’ll see…
Thank you for both the information and how you posted it. I totally forgot that and couldn’t for the life of me remember JLD.
Y’all were winning halfway into the 4th quarter of that SECCG, actually. Tennessee took the lead back with only 6:15 left in the game.
That 98 State team is very underrated. They gave a LOADED UT team all we wanted in Atl.
Southern Miss
Ok, that’s funny. LOL
Mississippi State because of one player. Kylin Hill.
He’s a bad man for sure.
Bad man until the whistle blows.
I like Plumlee and think his leadership – and running – pulls OM through.
Agreed, Plumlee was easily one of the most entertaining players to watch in the entire SEC last year. It’s frustrating when he does what he does against your team and I felt we were fortunate to beat them last season, but otherwise the kid is a joy to watch.
“It’s frustrating when he does what he does against your team…”
Wow that’s exactly how I felt last year when we played them. And, strangely, I couldn’t help but want to root for him. (As long as we win when we play OM this year) I love watching him!
We put a “spy” on him and his results really seemed to drop off. I’m thinking everybody’s going to copy that and he’s gonna have to throw a little better to keep people honest.
extra base: Well you lost your head coach and some coaches on both sides and that will take time to gel. Same for Missouri on the offense. The whole offensive coaches been replaced as well the HC who will be installing the offense. Thank goodness! All were upgraded. I want to thank MSU for the OL coach.
State put a spy on Plumlee which did limit his yardage, but also allowed Ealy to have a big day against State and also opened up the passing game. So, although they limited his stat line, they did not lessen his impact on the game.
I’m not sure Plumlee is a Lane Kiffin type of Quarterback. He prefers an accurate passer more than a great running QB. We’ll see. Both these coaches have been dealt a Wild Card by the lack of Spring Practice but we’ll see who’s more ready ion late September.
I think you’re right about Kiffin, and it’s going to be hard to keep Plumlee from using his natural ability and taking off with the ball. Coral’s a little more accurate, but probably doesn’t rally the troops as well with the big play. Tisdale has limited experience but made a beautiful throw in the Alabama game, maybe we’ll see more of him this year?
New HC no one really knows how it will pan out for Kiffin. Hard to predict what all the new HCs will do this year.
The case for MSU: Better overall roster, new, innovative offense, Leach is a proven winner, easier schedule.
The case for Ole Miss: Kiffin knows what it takes to win in the SEC, dynamic QB can score from anywhere, better skill players on offense(besides RB)
I would say the team that plays the best defense will have the best season. Leach seems to ignore the defense totally while Kiffin knows it’s necessary to win in the SEC. Slight edge to Ole Miss. State may have a better season but I’ll take Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.
Do not forget that Missouri got the MSU OL and he did not take the offer right away because he wanted to wait and see who was hired and make a decision then. Leach was hired and that was not what he wanted to work for since he ignores the running game! He accepted the offer from Drinkwitz.
A&M, part of murderer’s row? C’mon, really, who makes this stuff up?
I like the Bully’s by at least 2 games.
The 3-3-5 is not new. In fact many teams use it now, hence the “star” position being so important. I remember the Joe Lee Dunn days for Miss State but after they were successful SEC quickly adapted. Whatever happened to him btw?
I remember him at Memphis after MSU, but I think everyone had adapted a bit to the way that he ran the scheme. Also, it was much better with SEC level talent, of course.
I’m goin Ole Miss. no real evidence, just a gut feeling. I’m sure I’m in the minority, but am not buying Leach in Starkville. I don’t think he’ll
Do well. His stuff don’t work against SEC defensive backs, they’re too physical at the line. I certainly could be wrong.
Actually his offense is very simple for his players. Only a few plays for his players to know. The defense dictates what they run. It’s like 3 card Monte on a football field. Will he win a title? No, but they will have success and more so early than later as teams adjust. Year 1, 2 and 3 will be his glory years at state.
Year 1 will be not so great! due to lack of practice. Also Missouri threw the ball similar like Air Raid. That didn’t get Missouri many wins and the run wasn’t there. That is the same kind of system Leach runs.
I don’t know, Leach has better experience, Kiffin will recruit better early, MSU won’t beat Missouri with Drinkwitz.
Wolfman, I think they will. I don’t dislike Rizzo at all. But I think y’all will struggle year one.
Ha ha ha! No way! He went to Appalachian State as a first time HC and he beat North Carolina and South Carolina with lesser players! He had 2* and 3* players! Now at Missouri he will have better players! Also the defense is going to be the same or better. Offense is what Missouri struggled for so long. He’ll set up his offense. Also all the offensive coaches are gone and all been replaced by better coaches. What am I missing that will get beaten with a better well balance offense? He also went 12-1 in his only season as a HC. I am surprise many thinks he is not that good. Some will be in shocked!
Both teams could end up at the under. New coaching staffs and no pre-season activity? Tough. As to which program is more successful, it will be the one with the HC who best adapts to this situation. I like MSU for the talent (assuming everyone stays healthy most of the season) but Ole Miss for the style of play. That running game could be easier to jump start after a lost pre-season.
I think people are really downplaying the impact that no spring and summer workouts is going to have on programs with new coaching staffs. State, Arkansas and Ole Miss are all breaking in completely new staffs and will not have time to tweak much if things aren’t going smoothly. Then you have to worry about offseason conditioning. Those first few weeks could be brutal for a lot of programs.
I agree with you 100%! Those that are downplaying the severity of what you mentioned, will be the first ones criticizing.
Records of 5-6 at the Egg Bowl will decide this.
I agree that Ole Miss should win more games, but only if the Rebel players refrain from lifting their legs after scoring touchdowns.
I just think the Ole Miss schedule is tough for year 1. Besides the SEC West, it includes Baylor. Just too tough for a winning record. I do think we’ll have good film on that Air Raid offense by the Egg Bowl. I think we win that one regardless of our record. Year 2 will be when we see the improvement.