In John Calipari’s best seasons at Kentucky, there was no question about the late-season identity of the team. Whether it was the 2012 team that won the national title, the 2015 team that nearly completed a perfect season before a Final Four stumble, or the 2010 team that ended up a poor shooting night away from the Final Four, Kentucky was who it was and won or didn’t win accordingly.

Other years, it’s not so simple. Calipari has greatly exceeded expectations a few times with late-charging teams … and has also fallen short of expectations a few times. Which is the current incarnation? Good question, one the Cats hope to answer this week at the SEC Tournament in Nashville.

The good

Start with 2011, when Calipari’s freshman class (including Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones) struggled to merge with veterans like Josh Harrellson, DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller. After losing at Arkansas on a put-back on Feb. 23, UK had lost 4 of its previous 7 games … but the Wildcat then jelled, won the SEC Tournament, and made an NCAA Tournament run to the Final Four as a No. 4 seed, knocking off No. 1 overall seed Ohio State and No. 2 seed North Carolina. Knight and Jones suddenly got more mature, and Harrellson outplayed Jared Sullinger, with Liggins hitting a late 3-pointer that was key to the North Carolina win.

Or take 2014, when Kentucky limped into the NCAA field as a No. 8 seed. A freshman-heavy UK team struggled early, and even lost 3 of its last 4 regular-season games. But in the Big Dance, UK took down No. 1 seed Wichita State and in-state rival Louisville en route to an NCAA title game appearance.

The bad

On the other hand, the news isn’t always good. The 2022 Kentucky squad had its share of struggles, but headed into March with a No. 2 seed before gagging up its first round game to St. Peters, 85-79. But it wasn’t the first time in recent years that a revitalized UK squad actually wasn’t so revitalized.

In 2018, Kentucky overcame a 4-game losing streak in February to gain a No. 5 seed. The Wildcats then played their way into Selection Sunday on a hot streak and watched their region’s top seed, Virginia, fall in the first 1 vs. 16 seed upset. No. 4 seed Arizona also lost and suddenly Kentucky’s path to the Final Four involved just No. 9 seed Kansas State on its side of the bracket, and No. 7 seed Nevada and No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago on the other side.

But Kentucky lost to K-State, and Sister Jean’s hoopers went to the Final Four.

A promising 2016 team bowed out in a 2nd round loss to Indiana, and Calipari has also suffered 3 heartbreaking Elite 8 losses.

This year?

Kentucky enters this week’s SEC Tournament looking to move up to perhaps a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have not only struggled, they’ve been horribly injury prone — and will likely continue to be so entering NCAA Tournament play. But that said, this Kentucky team looks significant better than the one that lost to South Carolina in January. Kentucky heads to Nashville having won 5 of its last 6 regular season games.

Over Calipari’s tenure, the development of freshmen has been a key. But this UK team, with all-conference level guard Cason Wallace and improving but struggling frosh forward Chris Livingston, didn’t seem like one of those stories. Then Livingston caught fire late in the season, going from averaging 4.8 points per game in January to 9.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game in February. In the absence of Sahvir Wheeler to injury, Wallace has become Kentucky’s key. Will that help make another March run?

Or is Kentucky’s iffy outside shooting and lack of depth a big issue? Forward Jacob Toppin is another key. In UK’s wins, Toppin scores 13.8 points per game on 53% shooting. In their losses, he scores 8.7 points per game on 32% shooting. Could any or all of these concerns bring about another March disappointment?

One thing is clear. With Kentucky having failed to win an NCAA Tournament game since March 29, 2019, Calipari’s warm seat will be positively toasty if he can’t get a few more lives out of his Wildcats in March. And in a season of parity, Kentucky could easily be the authors of a dramatic comeback or another first-round flop. Plenty is on the line, and it awaits the determination of whether Calipari has more March madness or March sadness up his sleeve.