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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with LSU. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky
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Say what you want about Brian Kelly’s LSU. Well, say anything except “it’s been boring.”
If you think these first 2 seasons of the Kelly era were boring, you’re living on a different planet than the rest of us.
Boring would be an 8-4 team that plays just 2 ranked teams and boasts a top-40 offense and a top-40 defense. Maybe that would mean just hovering in the Top 25 while failing to generate national interest on a weekly basis. Boring would be playing games in the 20s that also lack thrilling finishes.
Boring? Nah. The 2023 version of LSU was a stomach-churning roller coaster. Jayden Daniels became one of the most efficient players in college football history en route to the Heisman Trophy. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. did their best imitation of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase while LSU hit 34 points 11 times in 13 games.
Of course, the Tigers needed every bit of that because as great as the offense was, the defense was just as bad. It was so bad that Kelly gutted his entire staff after its historically prolific offense had too steep of a climb to even reach a New Year’s 6 bowl.
For better or worse, LSU was must-see TV in 2023. Really, it’s been must-see TV since Kelly stepped off the plane and busted out a fake Southern accent. That’s ancient history. Kelly does indeed fit in, which we saw by consecutive 10-win seasons to start his time at LSU. (Nick Saban didn’t even do that.)
But is there another step to take? There’s no doubt. Kelly was brought in to win SEC and national titles, neither of which were in the cards in his first 2 extremely not-boring seasons.
So what’s in store for Year 3?
Let’s dig into it with LSU’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
So about that new defense …
Remember how I mentioned that Kelly gutted his entire defensive staff? I wonder if Kelly looked at these 2023 numbers and dry-heaved before making that decisive move:
- No. 81 in FBS in scoring defense
- No. 87 in FBS in rushing yards/game allowed
- No. 91 in FBS in rushing yards/carry allowed
- No. 104 in FBS in opposing QB rating
- No. 106 in FBS in yards/pass allowed
- No. 108 in FBS in yards/game allowed
- No. 109 in FBS in yards/play allowed
- No. 114 in FBS in opposing 20-yard plays allowed
- No. 117 in FBS in opposing 3rd down percentage
- No. 118 in FBS in passing yards/game allowed
It’s unfathomable how bad LSU was because as many pointed out, it had arguably the top returning defensive player in the sport, Harold Perkins Jr., leading that defense. It’s almost like when 2020 LSU returned Derek Stingley Jr. with freshman Eli Ricks and somehow put together the worst passing defense in America. Shoutout, Bo Pelini.
Gone is Matt House and the rest of his staff. In is Blake Baker and edge-rushers coach Kevin Peoples from Mizzou, as well as Texas defensive line coach Bo Davis and Florida secondary coach Corey Raymond, both of whom played and coached at LSU already.
The thinking is that improvement is imminent. After all, you saw the numbers. They can’t get much worse, right? Even if Baker doesn’t give Perkins as many pass-rushing snaps as LSU fans hope, a more mature version of the star linebacker shouldn’t quite be on his heels as much as last year.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
But questions remain in the secondary and on the defensive line, where the Tigers are dealing with different issues.
The secondary returns a boatload of experience, albeit from a group that often looked like every week was its first matchup together. The health of Zy Alexander will be pivotal in any sort of bounce-back year for that group, as will the return of former Ohio State transfer JK Johnson, who suffered a season-ending injury last September.
The defensive line lacks proven experience after Maason Smith’s surprising decision to turn pro. Jacobian Guillory played the most of any LSU returner on the defensive line, and he was limited to 1 start and 258 defensive snaps. Gio Paez will add experience as a grad transfer from Wisconsin, but it’s clear that Davis has his work cut out for him in Year 1.
Defensive improvement will be at the forefront of every LSU conversation.
Garrett Nussmeier, your time has arrived. Finally
Nussmeier did the atypical thing. He stuck around with a new coaching staff and sat on the bench for 2 seasons after their arrival. Ultimately, he could be better for it. That’s what LSU is hoping for with the gunslinger, who got his first career start (and victory) in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Nussmeier looked more like a veteran game manager than a giddy underclassman. Whatever the case, he’ll be tasked with finding the right balance in his first season as a starter.
Nussmeier won’t have the benefit of working with last year’s OC, Mike Denbrock, who left for Notre Dame. He will, however, have the familiarity of Joe Sloan after his internal promotion from QBs coach to offensive play-caller. Nussmeier will also have the best offensive tackle duo in the sport with Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., both of whom enter 2024 as established multi-year starters.
Nabers and Thomas might but gone, but the cupboard is never bare among the LSU pass-catchers. Kyren Lacy is expected to step into that WR1 role while Liberty transfer CJ Daniels and Chris Hilton Jr. should form one of the conference’s better wide receiver rooms. Mason Taylor should be a familiar face at tight end, too.
That’s all positive. It’s still an offense with a considerable amount of turnover. Nussmeier won’t be asked to do all the things that Daniels did both because he has a different skill set and also because if LSU’s defense isn’t a total doormat, getting to 35 points on a weekly basis shouldn’t be a prerequisite.
That’ll be easier said than done.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. USC in Las Vegas (W)
There’s an extremely likely scenario that both fan bases are smashing their heads into a wall after watching countless defensive miscues in their first games with new defensive coordinators. In fact, I’m banking on that scenario. So what allows LSU to get its first season-opening win of the post-Joe Burrow era? In the 4th quarter, LSU’s defense finally shows up. Miller Moss takes a sack to force USC out of field-goal range and then a late comeback drive ends with — wait for it — a Sage Ryan interception. Kelly finally gets a Sunday victory and this time, he opts not to joke about executing his team.
Week 2: vs. Nicholls (W)
Something tells me that we’ll get a reminder that AJ Swann is a capable SEC quarterback, which could come in handy down the stretch. It instead serves as a nice exclamation point late against a solid FCS foe.
Week 3: at South Carolina (W)
As my former Saturday Down South Podcast co-host Chris Marler would say, a noon ET kick at Williams-Brice Stadium in mid-September will be the hottest place on Earth. But a week after a physical game against Kentucky, it’s South Carolina that can’t stand the heat. The Gamecocks struggle to get pressure on Nussmeier, who picks apart the Gamecocks secondary with a 21-point third quarter. That’s too much to overcome for a LaNorris Sellers-led offense that’s not ready to overcome significant deficits.
Week 4: vs. UCLA (W)
Timing is everything in life. This is an ideal year for LSU to get a little revenge on UCLA after the 2021 opener went the Bruins’ way. A new-look UCLA squad can’t find any defensive answers for the LSU offense, which turns to a more ground-heavy approach than it had at South Carolina. A beefed-up Kaleb Jackson steals the show with a pair of long touchdown runs to give LSU some breathing room. The Tigers don’t play a perfectly clean game — UCLA OC Eric Bieniemy can still dial it up — but a 2-touchdown victory isn’t ever in doubt.
Week 5: vs. South Alabama (W)
For the third time in the first 5 weeks, LSU benefits from facing a new defensive coordinator. Not that LSU needed to face a new-look coaching staff to get past South Alabama, but it becomes fairly obvious that this is a different South Alabama defense than the one that stymied Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma State in Stillwater (Okla.) last year.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: vs. Ole Miss (W)
A Kelly-Lane Kiffin battle of unbeatens? Please and thank you. Just like the first 2 times they met, it lives up to the billing. Also just like those first 2 times, the home team gets the last laugh. Ole Miss’ improved defensive line doesn’t get dominated by LSU, but the Tigers keep Nussmeier clean in a game that launches him firmly into the Heisman Trophy discussion. The blistering defensive start for Ole Miss comes to a screeching halt in Death Valley.
Week 8: at Arkansas (W)
After Luke Hasz torched LSU in Death Valley last year, Kelly sells out to stop the emerging tight end. That leads to Taylen Green trying to take a few too many chances into double coverage, and an up-and-down LSU defense gets some much-needed turnovers on the road. It’s another down-to-the-wire game that LSU doesn’t take control of until the middle of the 4th quarter. The Battle for the Golden Boot goes to the visitors, who take the boot back to Baton Rouge.
Week 9: at Texas A&M (L)
For the first time all year, LSU’s offensive line doesn’t win the battle up front. Nic Scourton and Shemar Turner put on a clinic leading Mike Elko’s defense. On the road, a sped-up Nussmeier turns the ball over 3 times (2 interceptions, 1 fumble) in a game that A&M comes out with something to prove. Conner Weigman, on the other hand, responds to everything that Baker throws at him with a 300-yard, 3-touchdown showing. LSU’s 7-0 start and top-5 ranking go up in smoke at the hands of the wild card Aggies.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: vs. Alabama (L)
Lost in the shuffle of the controversy surrounding Daniels’ injury last year on the Dallas Turner hit was how well Jalen Milroe played. He had 155 yards and 4 touchdowns … with his legs. Yes, LSU should be in a better position to do the whole “tackling” thing this year. But Milroe’s improvement as a passer will be evident against the Playoff-hopeful Tigers. At a place where Alabama has historically had a ton of success (that predates the Nick Saban era), Kalen DeBoer gets a statement win to keep SEC title hopes alive.
Week 12: at Florida (L)
Just when we think the Gators are in total free-fall after losing 4 in a row to spoil a 5-0 start, they do the unthinkable — they finally end the LSU losing streak. For the first time since 2018, Florida is on the right end of a thriller against the Tigers. Nussmeier struggles with his decision-making on the road while the Gators play like a team that’s happy to be home for the first time in a month. The Gators’ passing attack lights up the LSU secondary in a game that Billy Napier desperately needs to clinch bowl eligibility and avoid another 5-game losing streak. LSU, meanwhile, is suddenly in jeopardy of missing out on the 12-team Playoff after its third consecutive loss.
Week 13: vs. Vanderbilt (W)
The headline of the week is that Clark Lea is out as Vanderbilt’s coach. With bowl eligibility off the table, Vandy elects to wave the white flag and start over yet again. To make matters worse for the visiting Commodores, Swann steps into the game early in the second half and lights up his former team in a lopsided LSU victory.
Week 14: vs. Oklahoma (W)
Will it be a Playoff elimination game? It’s certainly possible. It’s also possible that Oklahoma’s Year 1 regular season in the SEC will conclude with a statement win in Death Valley. But more likely is that finally, we see LSU’s defensive line show up in a big game. Davis’ work building up that defensive front pays off. Instead of OU’s pass-catchers torching an inconsistent LSU secondary, the Tigers get pressure without blitzing on Jackson Arnold and he’s unable to settle in. That leaves the door open for the LSU rushing attack to do the heavy lifting while Nussmeier assumes the role of game manager. LSU wins a pivotal thriller to make 1 last Playoff argument.
2024 Projection: 9-3 (5-3), 5th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
I have LSU going into the Texas A&M game as a top-5 team with seemingly a favorable path to the Playoff. A 3-2 mark from that point would likely be enough for the 7-0 Tigers. So then what goes wrong? And why would a 9-win LSU team miss out on the Playoff? It’s a fair question, especially if Ole Miss and Oklahoma are both in the 9- or 10-win range, as well.
But down the stretch, LSU’s defensive line depth proves costly. Teams run all over the Tigers. The well-documented decision to not spend on defensive linemen in the post-spring transfer portal window comes back to bite LSU. To make matters worse, Nussmeier’s forgiving start to the schedule perhaps gives him a bit too much confidence, and he regresses with his decision-making in the latter half of the season against some more talented defenses.
That makes for a brutal 3-game stretch that doesn’t exactly sell the selection committee on LSU’s Playoff-readiness. Even with a thrilling regular-season finale win vs. Oklahoma that gives LSU an outside shot at the Playoff during an idle conference championship weekend, it’s not enough to make the 12-team field. Kelly is criticized heavily by national folks.
The silver lining is that LSU’s defense shows signs of life. Unlike the previous year when Kelly gutted his entire defensive staff, he doesn’t feel the need to make a single change on that side of the ball. Nussmeier announces he’s going to return for 1 more season, along with a slew of non-Perkins players, which turns a disappointing ending into a promising outlook for 2025.
Kelly and the Tigers aren’t there yet. But it’s just a matter of time.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
