Former Indiana and Georgia head coach Tom Crean said on ESPN Monday that Mississippi State should be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, even if the Bulldogs lose their first game of the SEC Tournament.

And while it’s true that according to Joe Lunardi’s latest projections Mississippi State would be the last team in the field, it’s not as simple as that. The Bulldogs absolutely need at least 1 win in the SEC tournament due to bid stealers, teams who are only making the tournament because they won their conference championship. There’s always a few each year, such as Oregon State a few years ago and Virginia Tech last year.

And that’s assuming teams like Oklahoma State, Wisconsin and Arizona State struggle down the stretch. A loss to Florida, which is currently not projected to be in the field, would not look good on their resume.