SEC Baseball Power Rankings, Week 12: Pondering NCAA Tournament futures
By Joe Cox
Published:
With just a trio of SEC weekends left before Hoover and the conference tournament arrive, it’s time to start pondering NCAA Tournament situations for the SEC’s baseball squads.
Here’s our breakdown of who’s out, who might be in, who’s in but not hosting, who’s hosting but not a potential super-regional host, and who gets those glorious top 8 NCAA seeds.
Out of the Tournament
These teams don’t have much of a shot of playing this postseason:
16. Mizzou (21-23 overall, 4-17 in SEC)
The Tigers did manage to win a game against Arkansas, but the losing season is clinched and Mizzou is out of the race entirely.
15. LSU (25-21, 6-15)
Unbeliveable, but here we are. The time for a sudden LSU resurgence might not be completely gone, but it’s very, very close. With 9 consecutive SEC losses, it’s hard to see the Tigers straightening out a dreadful season now.
14. South Carolina (22-24, 7-14)
A series win against Kentucky gets the Gamecocks a move forward in the SEC basement. With a tough schedule ahead, it’s probably about the upper limit of USC potential, but after this season, any good moments are worth remembering.
Battling for an NCAA slot
These teams still have hope, but there’s work yet to be done:
13. Vanderbilt (27-20, 10-12)
Vandy’s record isn’t awful, but its RPI ranking is. Even before Thursday’s loss to Alabama, the ‘Dores were at No. 64 in the latest NCAA RPI rankings — that’s 4 spots below LSU. With Mizzou and South Carolina upcoming, even a sweep to the Tide still leaves Vandy a chance to go 5-1 or 6-0 on the final 2 weekends and nab a spot.
12. Kentucky (27-15, 9-12)
With Tennessee, Florida, and Arkansas still ahead, Kentucky has some work to do. The Wildcats haven’t won an SEC series since Kentucky’s SEC opener against Alabama. The most recent Baseball America projection has Kentucky as the first team out of the NCAA field, and winning at least one weekend series ahead of Selection Sunday would be key.
In the Tournament (but not hosting)
These teams will likely be on the road for regionals:
11. Tennessee (30-15, 10-11)
Two of 3 over Alabama gets Tennessee on much clearer NCAA ground. That said, the Vols’ No. 33 RPI doesn’t make it a sure thing. Another series win this weekend at Kentucky would lock down an NCAA Tournament bid as a near certainty.
10. Arkansas (30-16, 11-10)
The fighting Dave Van Horns took 2 of 3 from Mizzou and should be on their NCAA way. The remaining matchups are Ole Miss and Oklahoma at home, and then Kentucky on the road. A 4-5 mark between the 3 sets would work.
9. Florida (29-16, 11-10)
Losing 2 of 3 to Texas A&M wasn’t bad, but the Gators are definitely looking to be on the outside of the hosting situations. This weekend’s series at Oklahoma could be determinative of a regional hosting spot.
8. Oklahoma (29-14, 11-10)
OU’s bats struggled in a series loss at Auburn, but the Sooners could get some real hosting momentum with Florida, Arkansas, and Tennessee upcoming, with only the Razorbacks on the road. A 5-4 or 6-3 mark would certainly bump up Oklahoma.
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Hosting, but work to do toward a super regional slot
These teams should be set to host in the regionals:
7. Ole Miss (31-15, 11-10)
Losing 2 of 3 to Georgia and a midweek game to Mississippi State sees Ole Miss’s hosting margin shrinking. Arkansas and Alabama are still up as road series matchups, with Texas A&M in between. Four more wins should keep Ole Miss in the hosting picture.
6. Alabama (30-16, 11-11)
A win on Thursday over Vandy gets the Tide back to .500. With 2 more with the Dores and then South Carolina upcoming, Alabama has momentum and a No. 6 national RPI ranking. They could still be a top 8 dark horse.
5. Mississippi State (35-10, 13-8)
The Bulldogs have a strong rĂ©sumĂ© having just swept LSU. They’re also No. 10 in the RPI rankings, but also still have to go to Texas and to A&M, with a home battle with Auburn in between. Even a 3-6 mark in those matchups would leave State hosting, but there’s very much a chance to make a super regional hosting run.
Potential Top 8 (Super Regional hosts)
These teams are the cream of the crop in the SEC:
4. Auburn (30-13, 12-9)
That’s 4 straight series wins for Auburn since getting swept by Alabama in late March. With the lowest ERA in the conference (3.29), it’s no wonder the Tigers are thriving. But it’s a tough final run: at Texas A&M and Mississippi State and then home to Georgia. There’s a potential battle with Mississippi State for the SEC’s final top 8 slot.
3. Texas (33-9, 13-7)
Off a series win at Vandy, Texas gets to close conference play with a tough series at home with Mississippi State, but then a trip to Tennessee and 3 games with Mizzou. The Longhorns could still make a run at the league crown and look like potential Super hosts.
2. Georgia (35-11, 15-6)
They’ve hit 124 homers, they’ve got the best record in the league, and they get to finish with Mizzou and LSU before traveling to Auburn. Georgia’s RPI score isn’t great (just No. 19), but the on-field product is hard to deny.
1.Texas A&M (34-8, 14-6)
A half-game behind Georgia, Texas A&M is off a series win over Florida. The Aggies still have to play Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, but they’ve been the hottest team in the SEC. The pitching still is cause for a little concern on depth, but the hitting attack is imposing.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
