SEC Baseball: Ranking each SEC team’s shot at winning its regional

And then, there were 13.

Yes, there are 13 SEC teams in the NCAA Baseball Tournament.

Other than Kentucky, nobody else is even getting a second look on the “Were they really deserving” factor? So Friday starts the wildest run of the season and 64 teams will become 16 by Monday.

Of the 13 SEC teams, which have the easiest paths through to the Super-Regional round? Here’s our rundown on which SEC teams can move on: all 13 NCAA SEC squads’ regional paths, ranked from the toughest to the easiest.

SEC teams’ paths to the Super-Regional round ranked (toughest to easiest)

We’ll start at No. 13 (the toughest path) and work our way to No. 1 (the easiest path):

13. Kentucky

It’s not shocking that Kentucky would get a tough path and Clemson is a legitimate regional host, with a stronger lineup and better top-of-the-rotation pitching than Kentucky. West Virginia looked tough for much of the season, but fell off late. That could mean that they’re terrible and Kentucky has a nice path to Clemson… or that the Mountaineers decide to wake up and play. WVU doesn’t hit a ton of homers, but has a lineup of solid bats. In any case, Kentucky comes in having lost its last 4 games with some heavy lifting to do.

12. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs head to Tallahassee as substantial underdogs. For that matter, Friday opponent Northeastern’s 2.92 ERA is tops in the field. State’s 97 home runs could be their hidden key in this talent-rich region. Anybody could come out of this one, but Mississippi State needs to be find the fuel to win some 12-11 games to have a shot here. Against 2 excellent pitching staffs, that’s probably too much to ask.

11. Oklahoma

The “Can you get to Kyson Witherspoon?” series. Oklahoma got a rough draw with North Carolina. And yet, if the Sooners can win on Friday and get to UNC with Kyson Witherspoon on the bump, they’ve got a puncher’s chance at a solid upset. That said, North Carolina has a deep and talented team with no real weakness. Against a lesser foe, Witherspoon could make the Sooners a favorite. As it is, they figure to have to do some late scratching against a tough UNC bullpen to have a shot.

10. Alabama

Southern Miss is a perennial here and is a team with both serious bats and a solid pitching staff, led by ace JB Middleton. Alabama has to stay far away from Middleton, but also has to play Miami to open, which is no favor. The Tide really got a brutal draw here. Anybody could emerge from Hattiesburg, but Alabama can be forgiven for wishing it was enjoying some nice home cooking.

9. Florida

The Gators are getting plenty of respect as a No. 2 seed, but much of it is from fans unfamiliar with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have a top-of-the-SEC level starting rotation. Florida has looked like a new team since that brutal 1-11 SEC start. But CCU is going to present a massive challenge for the Gators. Scoring runs off the starting rotation will be a staggering task, which puts a lot of pressure on a UF pitching staff that might not be up for it. Florida could use catcher Luke Heyman for sure, but without him, this is a big ask.

8. Ole Miss

The Rebels got a brutal draw. Georgia Tech is a strong offensive team that could easily have won hosting honors. Western Kentucky has one of the toughest pitching staffs in the tournament, so the schedule makers did not favors for the Rebels. Ole Miss feels almost like it has to navigate game by game because either opponent could be their potential undoing. This is as tough of a draw as a No. 1 seed could get.

7. Tennessee

This setup certainly wasn’t doing the Vols any favors. Nearly annual nemesis Wake Forest is back again and Cincinnati could mount a threat to a UT team that has struggled to control the opposing running game. The key to this region will be Tennessee‘s pitching. If Liam Doyle and crew throw the ball they way they can, all is well. If not, either the Deacons or the Bearcats could stroll out of Knoxville with the regional win.

6. Auburn

NC State is one of those teams that’s a perennial here, but the Wolfpack had trouble down the stretch of their season. State doesn’t have a power hitting punch and honestly, Stetson could upset NC State on Friday and make this one more interesting. Auburn is too good of an offensive team to stumble here, which leaves the only way out of the region to be winning 12-11 slugfests. NC State just isn’t that team this year, which means, again, Stetson might be the more viable threat, but the Tigers should be good.

5. LSU

Dallas Baptist is the big foe here, and that’s a program that seems to always have a lineup full of big bats. DBU hit .304 as a team and slugged 97 homers, so that’s in keeping with tradition. LSU’s pitching staff should still be the game changer here. LSU’s team ERA of 3.81 is miles ahead of the other regional squads’ team ERAs of 4.98, 6.21 and 6.38. Home field advantage and that legitimately terrifying 1-2 punch atop the rotation give LSU a pretty easy run.

4. Georgia

The Bulldogs have Duke as the big foe in their region, which is plausible, but not exactly a team likely to pull the upset. The Blue Devils are like a light version of Georgia, not quite as good as UGA at anything that makes the teams go. Oklahoma State could actually give Georgia a tougher battle, and that may be the direction. Still, it’s a solid draw.

3. Texas

The Longhorns have had some late struggles, but have been a strong team all season. Texas-San Antonio hit 63 homers all season while Kansas State has a 5.78 team ERA. Texas needs to get the bats booming again this weekend, but that’s probably a more immediate goal than having to worry about winning this region. It’s a pretty soft landing for a squad that admittedly, could use one right now.

2. Vanderbilt

Getting the No. 1 overall seed should carry some privileges and it did. Louisville struggled down the stretch of the ACC season and, with a 5.76 ERA, isn’t much of a threat at all. Honestly, East Tennessee State is the more intriguing team, although its fair to wonder how much competition they faced (though that win over Tennessee does jog a memory or two). The only way Louisville can make something happen is with its base-running, which is impressive (146 steals). But Vanderbilt is too talented to beat itself defensively, and should sail on past.

1. Arkansas

This is a favorable set-up for the Hogs. Kansas is a tough team, but also one with a 5.02 ERA and not a ton of strikeout potential. Creighton is a nice group of young men who hit 47 homers all season. Probably the only danger here for the Hogs is getting outscored by Kansas, but this Arkansas team feels like one that could win a series of 12-11 games if it needed to. It probably won’t.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.