No. 22 Tennessee goes for the season sweep today when it hosts No. 17 Alabama. Tip-off is set for 6 pm, ET (ESPN).
Tennessee used a second-half blitz to beat Alabama 79-73 on Jan. 24.
Neither team is a serious contender to catch Florida in the SEC race, but this game will impact SEC Tournament seeding, as well as the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee (20-8, 10-5 SEC) is trying to bounce back from a loss at Missouri. Alabama (21-7, 11-4 SEC) has won 7 in a row, led by the dynamic scoring of Labaron Philon Jr. (21.3 points per contest). The Vols counter with Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.1 PPG) and Nate Ament (17.9 PPG).
Our analysis breaks down Alabama at Tennessee and provides the best bets on Kalshi.
Alabama vs Tennessee Odds
The oddsmakers have set Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite, a number that has shifted slightly from the opening line of -4. Given Alabama’s explosive offense and Tennessee’s strong defense, the total is set quite high at 162.5 points, though it has seen some movement downward from an opening number of 164.5.
Win Probabilities: Removing the “vig” (the bookmaker’s fee) from the current moneyline odds gives us the implied probability of each team winning the game:
- Tennessee: 66.3%
- Alabama: 33.7%
Betting Payouts Betting Payouts: For those new to sports betting, the moneyline indicates the potential return on a wager. A $10 bet on Tennessee (-225) would yield a profit of roughly $4.44 if the Vols win. A $10 bet on underdog Alabama (+184) would return a significantly higher profit of $18.40 should the Tide pull off the upset.
Kalshi also has markets available for this game. You can purchase a Tennessee contract for $0.68 each on Kalshi. Should Tennessee win, you would profit $0.32 for each contract. Thus a $10 investment in Tennessee contracts would profit $4 if the Volunteers win. You can purchase an Alabama contract for $0.35 per. A $10 investment in Alabama contracts would profit $17 if the Tide pull off the upset.
Alabama at Tennessee Scouting Report
The most glaring contrast is the pace of play. Alabama has one of the most prolific offenses in the country, averaging 92.9 points per game. However, this speed comes at a cost on the other end, as the Tide surrender 83.6 points per game. Tennessee boasts a top-tier defense, holding opponents to just 69.1 points per contest; the Vols held Alabama to 73 in Round 1. The Volunteers’ ability to control the tempo and limit Alabama’s transition opportunities will be the defining factor of the game.
Alabama holds the edge in resume metrics, sitting at No. 10 in the RPI compared to Tennessee at No. 28, as of Feb. 27. The Crimson Tide have been battle-tested with a tougher strength of schedule (0.6161) and have performed slightly better against top-tier competition, posting an 8-6 record against RPI Top 50 teams. However, Tennessee has been nearly unbeatable at home, boasting a 14-1 record (93.3% win rate) in Knoxville. — and already beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Efficiency will be key for Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr., who is averaging 21.3 points on 50.3% shooting. He faces a Tennessee backcourt anchored by Gillespie and Ament, both of whom are capable of matching Alabama’s scoring output while playing within a more structured system. Alabama’s Aden Holloway is also a significant threat from deep, shooting 43.0% from 3-point range, a statistic Tennessee’s perimeter defense must respect to prevent the game from turning into a shootout.
Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction & Best Bets
Tennessee seemingly handled the toughest part of trying to sweep a season series when it tamed the Tide on the road.
Today, the Vols welcome the Tide to Knoxville.
Tennessee successfully slowed the pace and kept Alabama’s offense in check in the earlier win. Tennessee’s perimeter defense was particularly stout, forcing the Tide into a 6-for-26 shooting night from beyond the arc.
Replicating that effort will be more difficult. Aside from adjustments and familiarity, Alabama has won 7 in a row and is averaging nearly 93 points per game. The Tide have reached 100 3 times during this streak.
Homecourt will be an obvious factor. Tennessee is 14-1 at home — and 7-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Kalshi has markets available featuring the spread, but the best market to target is the moneyline, where a $10 investment in Tennessee contracts would generate a $4 profit if the Vols win.
Best Market: Tennessee To Win ($0.68 per contract at Kalshi).
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
