ESPN Analytics revealed who it believes has the advantage on Wednesday night when SEC leader and defending national champion Florida heads to the Lone Star State to face a Texas team that is desperate for a huge win to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
With the Longhorns smack in the middle of those SEC standings at 8-6, 4 full games behind first-place Florida, a home victory over the 7th-ranked Gators would be just what the doctor ordered as they try to fight their way off the NCAA bubble. Texas is 17-10 overall and fighting to get to that 20-win plateau, but the ESPN BPI believes that despite being at home at the Moody Center in Austin, the Longhorns will have an uphill battle against the surging Gators, who’ve ripped off 7 straight wins and won 12 of their past 13 games.
The BPI believes Florida has a great shot to make it 8 in a row, giving the Gators a 67.5% chance to come to Austin and leave with another victory. Florida is 21-6 overall and 12-2 in the SEC, and it has firm control of the conference standings with a 2-game lead over a trio of teams with only 4 games left in the regular season.
Unlike Florida, Texas doesn’t have the luxury of knowing it will be heading to the NCAA Tournament come March. An upset of the Gators on national TV in late February would work wonders for those NCAA hopes, with the SEC battle tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Longhorns had been surging themselves with a 5-game winning streak before losing at Georgia on Saturday, so they’ll look to start a new streak on Wednesday night.
Ahead of the UF-Texas collision, prediction market Kalshi is also giving the Gators a big advantage despite being on the road:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
