ESPN Analytics predicts the winner of Arkansas vs. High Point
By David Wasson
Published:
The 12th-seeded High Point Panthers have been one of the early Cinderella stories in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, taking down fifth-seeded Wisconsin on Thursday to set up a Round of 32 matchup Saturday against fourth-seeded Arkansas (9:45 pm ET, TruTV/TBS)
But while Chase Johnston’s never-ending 3-point range got High Point to this point, ESPN Analytics don’t give the Panthers much of a chance against the SEC Tournament champion Razorbacks – as Arkansas is a 78.8% percent favorite.
Kalshi, alternatively, gives Arkansas an 85% chance to take home the win:
Arkansas (27-8) trounced 13th-seeded Hawaii 97-78 on Thursday, SEC Freshman and Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr. dropped a game-high 24 points against the Rainbow Warriors, with Meleek Thomas scoring 21 points and Trevon Brazile adding 19 points.
High Point (31-4), the Big South Tournament champions, stunned the Badgers on Thursday after reserve 3-point specialist Johnston finished a late barrage with his first 2-point basket of the entire season. Rob Martin led the Panthers with 23 points, Terry Anderson scored 15 points and Johnston and Cam’Ron Fletcher each dropped 14 points coming off the bench.
High Point is making just it second NCAA Tournament appearance, bookending its 2025 appearance. Arkansas is seeking its 16th trip to the Sweet 16 and second in a row in coach John Calipari’s tenure.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
