How far will Alabama advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
By David Wasson
Published:
The Alabama basketball team is headed back to the NCAA Tournament for a sixth consecutive season, once again looking for a deep run into March Madness under the direction of coach Nate Oats.
Alabama (23-9) earned a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Bracket on Sunday night, and will play No. 13 seed and Colonial Athletic Conference champion Hofstra Pride on Friday in Tampa. The Crimson Tide will then get the Texas Tech-Akron winner Sunday for the right to advance to the Sweet 16.
The Crimson Tide finished third in the SEC this season but bowed out in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals earlier this week – absorbing a stunning 80-79 loss to Ole Miss in Nashville.
Alabama advanced to the Elite Eight last season and is 2 NCAA Tournaments removed from the program’s first Final Four appearance in 2024. The Crimson Tide made it to the 2021 Sweet 16 in Oats’ second season in Tuscaloosa and also went back to the Sweet 16 in 2023. Alabama lost in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Which team will finish the Road to the Final Four and cut down the nets in Indianapolis with a national title? Check out Kalshi’s odds on who wins the NCAA Tournament:
Oats is 168-72 overall and 87-38 in his 7 seasons at the helm at Alabama, winning the 2020-21 and 2022-23 SEC regular-season titles. He also took Buffalo to 3 NCAA Tournaments in his 4 seasons there before being hired to replace Avery Johnson.
The 15th-ranked Crimson Tide are the best scoring team in the country at 91.7 points per game and are led by guard Labaron Philon Jr.’s 21.7 points per outing. Philon also leads Alabama with 4.7 assists per game, and forward Amari Allen pulls down a team-high 7.1 rebounds per outing.
Alabama is 32-26 all time in the NCAA Tournament, with Oats sporting an 11-5 Big Dance record with the Tide.
Here’s how far Saturday Down South predicts Alabama will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Round 1: No. 13 Hofstra Pride (in Tampa)
RECORD: 24-10 (12-6 COLONIAL); KENPOM: 87; NET RANK: 88
BEST WINS: 86-72 vs. Campbell (12-29-25) and 70-67 at Drexel (1-3-26); WORST LOSS: 79-78 at North Carolina A&T (1-22-26)
The Colonial Tournament champs are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001 and fifth overall. The Pride made the Elite Eight back in 1964… in Division II. In the Big Dance, though, Hofstra is 0-4 all time. Hofstra endured a 5-game losing streak in January to put March Madness far away, but the Pride rattled off 4 straight wins to finish the regular season. Hofstra then knocked off William & Mary, Towson and Monmouth to earn the CAA Tournament title for the second time. Starting 3-2 was a challenge, too, as early losses at UCF, Iona and Temple put the Pride behind the curve.
The Pride are stout on defense, allowing just 66.1 points per game to rank 19th in the country. Guard Cruz Davis leads the team at 20.2 points per game and he also delivers a team-high 4.6 assists per outing. Coach Speedy Claxton played for Hofstra from 1996-2000, leading the Pride to what was their first NCAA tournament berth in 23 seasons. He remains the program’s leader in assists and steals.
PREDICTION: Alabama 88, Hofstra 71
Round 2: No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders (in Tampa)
RECORD: 22-10 (12-6 BIG 12); KENPOM: 20; NET RANK: 19
BEST WINS: 82-81 vs. No. 3 Duke (12-20-25) and 90-86 vs. No. 6 Houston (1-24-26); WORST LOSS: 72-67 at Arizona State (2-17-26)
The Red Raiders will enjoy their third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament and 21st overall. Texas Tech made it to the 2019 national championship game, falling 85-77 in overtime to Virginia, and advanced to the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual national champ Florida. This is the first time the Red Raiders have ever been a No. 5 seed. Coach Grant McCasland is in his third season at the helm, and is 73-29 overall and 38-18 in Big 12 play during his tenure.
Texas Tech is expecting the return of star guard Christian Anderson, who injured his groin on the slippery glass Big 12 tournament floor during the Red Raiders’ 75-53 quarterfinals loss to Iowa State. Anderson, who was named the Big 12’s most improved player and earned a spot on the all-conference first team, delivers 18.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game — with the assists mark ranking fourth nationally. Texas Tech lost All-American forward JT Toppin to a torn ACL in February, an injury that put more of the offensive burden on Anderson.
A healthy Anderson will cause issues for Alabama throughout, as the Tide have shown signs of struggling against quick back-court play, and the Crimson Tide have been living more on a stellar offense than any semblance of defense. That will end in the second round against a team that can get up and down the floor almost as fast at the Tide.
PREDICTION: Texas Tech 97, Alabama 96 (OT)
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
