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The stage is set for a fascinating week in Nashville.
The 2024 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament will kick off on Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena with Vanderbilt and Arkansas.
In case you don’t have the bracket folded up in your pocket, here’s a look at the matchups this week:
Because it’s prediction season, why not predict every game of the week ahead? (If you don’t like my picks, check out colleague Neil Blackmon’s predictions.)
Wednesday’s matchups
- No. 13 Vanderbilt def. No. 12 Arkansas
- No. 11 Georgia def. No. 14 Mizzou
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Arkansas’ run of 3 consecutive trips to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament will officially end against a Vanderbilt team that appears to be fighting for Jerry Stackhouse.
As tempting as it is to pick a Mizzou team that has yet to win a conference game … nope. It’s not tempting. Mike White’s squad moves on to a rematch against his former team.
Thursday’s matchups
- No. 9 Mississippi State def. No. 8 LSU
- No. 5 South Carolina def. No. 13 Vanderbilt
- No. 7 Texas A&M def. No. 10 Ole Miss
- No. 6 Florida def. No. 11 Georgia
Mississippi State is firmly on the bubble heading into the week after a 4-game skid to close the regular season. I don’t know that the 4-game losing streak is truly indicative of how Chris Jans’ squad has been playing. Much like they did a few weeks ago in Baton Rouge, Mississippi State avoids disaster and takes care of business against LSU.
I believe South Carolina and Vanderbilt give us our first real thriller of the week. The Gamecocks, having already locked up an NCAA Tournament berth, struggle to distance themselves from a Vanderbilt team that’s punching above its weight. It takes a severe Vanderbilt scoring drought late to get Lamont Paris his first SEC Tournament game victory.
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I’m a believer in all things Buzz Williams, especially within the confines of the SEC Tournament. That team quietly entered the week on a nice bounce-back 3-game winning streak and is defending like a team that wants to go dancing. I’ll take the Aggies to continue their late-season mojo with a statement win against Ole Miss.
I’m tempted to take White to beat his former team in what would be an emphatic Toby Keith win (that’s “How do you like me now?”). But I’ll begrudgingly put some faith in an inconsistent Florida team to complete the season sweep of White. Er, the Dawgs.
Friday’s quarterfinals
- No. 1 Tennessee def. No. 9 Mississippi State
- No. 4 Auburn def. 5 South Carolina
- No. 7 Texas A&M def. No. 2 Kentucky
- No. 3 Alabama def. 6 Florida
When I close my eyes and picture the aftermath of a hard-fought Mississippi State-Tennessee game, I picture Jans getting to the postgame press conference and saying “you can’t tell me that we’re not an NCAA Tournament team after how we just played Tennessee.” A down-to-the-wire game we get, but a late Zakai Zeigler steal prevents Tennessee from the upset.
As much as I’d like to see Paris’ team close the SEC Tournament in the title game after being picked to finish last in the regular season, it’s hard to shake that 40-point loss to Auburn last month. Sure, Auburn couldn’t miss. We know that Bruce Pearl’s squad, especially their guards, can go ice cold. Once again, Auburn’s size and ability to stretch the floor with their bigs put South Carolina in a tough spot for 40 minutes.
Let’s get weird. Yes, Kentucky looks like a team that’s playing its best ball of the year. Nobody would be surprised if the Cats ran through the field in Nashville en route to a tournament title, especially after closing out the regular season with a statement win to spoil Tennessee’s Senior Day. So what gives? Overconfidence. Kentucky’s defensive woes resurface at the worst time and Wade Taylor IV has one of those nights. He delivers a 30-point showing, which culminates with a game-winning bucket in the closing moments. A&M makes its best NCAA Tournament case yet and we’re back to wondering who in the world this Kentucky team is after another early SEC Tournament exit.
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If there’s a game that I can see going any which way, it’s Alabama-Florida. We’ve got a pair of up-and-down teams who don’t defend particularly well and are facing off for the third time in a 3-week stretch. It wouldn’t surprise me if this was the type of game in which both teams had double-digit leads. I’ll bank on Mark Sears willing the Tide down the stretch and Nate Oats’ SEC title defense surviving the quarterfinal round.
Saturday’s semifinals
- No. 1 Tennessee def. No. 4 Auburn
- No. 3 Alabama def. No. 7 Texas A&M
It’s possible that Auburn has a whale of a week and it’s 2019 all over again. I’ll never rule that out, especially for a team that can beat you in a variety of ways. But I believe Tennessee has the size on the interior to handle Auburn’s bigs, and it turns into the Tigers forcing too many contested shots. In previous years, you can win a 65-60 game against Tennessee. But this year, with Dalton Knecht, the Vols are a different kind of beast. On this stage, that’s more evident than ever. He doesn’t quite put up 39 like the last meeting with Auburn, but Knecht’s second-half surge vaults the Vols to an SEC Tournament championship berth.
I’ll be honest: I didn’t think I’d be penciling in Alabama for the conference title game, especially with the uncertainty of Rylan Griffen’s status. Alabama is a maddening team with perhaps as much variance as anyone in the conference. But running into an A&M team playing on its third day in 3 days, Alabama takes advantage. It’s shades of last year’s SEC Tournament championship wherein the Tide controlled the game throughout. This year, it clinches a return trip to Sunday.
Sunday’s championship
- No. 1 Tennessee def. No. 3 Alabama
OK, I’m going chalky, but I’m buying into Tennessee again. I know. Famous last words. Rick Barnes’ squad just checks so many boxes. The toughness and discipline that the Vols play with is huge, but let’s remember something that last year’s team didn’t have going for it. It’s actually healthy now. Having Zeigler will be monumental this time around. The SEC Defensive Player of the Year might not totally stymie Sears, but he can at least make life more difficult for the Alabama star. Finally, Alabama’s defensive woes surface against an improved Vols’ offense. It’s not necessarily a vintage Knecht showing, but as is often the case, his buckets down the stretch come at the ideal time to fend off those all-too-familiar scoring droughts for Barnes-coached squads.
Tennessee will show why it’s worthy of getting a 1-seed and perhaps finally reaching the Final Four. An SEC sweep brings on a whole new level of hope on Rocky Top.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
