Who will win Most Outstanding Player? Odds, prediction market analysis

One of the best days on the entire sports calendar, Final Four Saturday, is almost here. 

Michigan, Arizona, UConn and Illinois have advanced to the venerable third weekend of the NCAA Tournament and will fight for the right to cut down the nets on Monday night. 

The most prestigious individual award that will be handed out this weekend is the Most Outstanding Player Award, which goes to the top player at the NCAA Tournament. Last year, Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. took home the honor. 

Most Outstanding Player odds

Over on Kalshi, users can make predictions on who will win this award in 2026. 

Here’s a look at the top candidates on the current market: 

Prediction Markets

Who will win Most Outstanding Player?

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Yaxel Lendeborg

27%

Keaton Wagler

13%

Brayden Burries

13%

Tarris Reed Jr.

10%

Jaden Bradley

8%

Koa Peat

8%

Morez Johnson Jr.

4%

Aday Mara

3%

Elliot Cadeau

2%

Alex Karaban

1%

Predict

It’s worth clarifying what this award is. This honor is voted on by media members after the national championship game on Monday, so the award overwhelmingly goes to the most productive player on the winning team. 

All NCAA Tournament games may be considered, although national championship game performances have seemingly carried more weight in voting patterns. For example, in 2015, Duke guard Tyus Jones won MOP thanks to a 23-point performance in the title game. He scored 9 points in the semifinals and was Duke’s fourth-leading scorer during the regular season. 

Let’s break it down the top candidate(s) for every team:

Michigan

Kalshi’s market has Yaxel Lendeborg as the overall favorite entering the weekend. He’s been sensational during the NCAA Tournament, scoring 23+ points in 3 straight games. 

Lendeborg was also a first-team All-American and has been Michigan’s best player all year long. If the Wolverines cut down the nets on Monday night, Lendeborg is very likely to be the MOP. Lendeborg’s MOP odds at 27% are a few points below Michigan’s 34% title equity, though, so it’s possible another teammate could snatch the award. Morez Johnson and Aday Mara are both hovering around 5% on Kalshi. 

UConn

Tarris Reed is the overwhelming favorite for UConn at 9 cents per contract. Reed has scored 20+ points in 3 of the 4 games so far, including one of the best NCAA Tournament performances ever in Round 1 (31 points and 27 rebounds in an 82-71 win over Furman). 

If UConn wins and it’s not Reed who wins MOP, Alex Karaban would be the next most-likely option at 4 cents per contract. Karaban has name recognition from being on UConn’s previous 2 title teams under Dan Hurley. He also averaged 17 points per game in UConn’s first 3 NCAA Tournament games and made big plays in crunch time against Duke. 

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Illinois

Keaton Wagler has emerged as a potential top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and is arguably the best freshman remaining in this tournament. Wagler has been excellent so far, averaging roughly 17-5-4 through 4 March Madness games. 

Wagler is Illinois’ best playmaker and also its top scorer and 3-point shooter. Perhaps someone like Kylan Boswell could have a big weekend and claim the award, but it’s Wagler’s to lose if Illinois wins it all. 

Arizona

Arizona’s MOP equity is split between 3 candidates: Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Jaden Bradley. All 3 of those players are in the top 6 of overall odds on Kalshi. 

Burries stands out as the best pick of the bunch to me. Peat has been excellent during the NCAA Tournament and even won MVP of the West Regional. However, looking ahead at the specific matchups, I think they favor Burries’ style of play. Michigan and Illinois both have massive front courts and UConn is 300th nationally in 3-point attempt rate defense. 

If Arizona is going to win 2 more games, its offense will likely be driven by elite guard play rather than Peat’s preferred style of interior scoring. 

Most Outstanding Player Prediction

I think the best value on the board is Lendeborg. That delta between his MOP odds (27%) and Michigan’s title odds (34%) is too big in my opinion. Lendeborg has been Michigan’s most important player all season and has only taken on more responsibility during the NCAA Tournament. I also like Michigan to win it all at the current market price, so taking Lendeborg at a cheaper number makes sense. 

If you’re in a legal sports betting state, you can also bet on Most Outstanding Player props at sports betting apps like BetMGM! Use BetMGM bonus code SOUTH1550 when you join to earn a sign-up bonus.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.