10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 1

Week 1 is — almost — in the books.

While North Carolina and TCU still have a game to play on Monday night, the rest of this week’s slate is in the books. As we did last week, this piece will attempt to look at the underlying data behind the most notable results from the weekend. Last week, this post focused on subjects such as Iowa State’s Big 12 contender status and Western Kentucky’s unexpected struggles vs. Sam Houston.

Exploring college football data from Week 1

With that being said, here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 1:

Buying: Kane Wommack is in trouble

When Kalen DeBoer hired Kane Wommack away from South Alabama, it was heralded as a major coup. But 14 games later and it already looks like DeBoer may have to move on from his defensive coordinator. 

Wommack’s unit was torn to shreds by Gus Malzahn and Florida State on Saturday. If this was the first time that’s happened, it would be one thing. But it’s not. Alabama has now lost 4 times as a double-digit favorite under DeBoer, and the defense has been the biggest reason why. Alabama gave up 200+ rushing yards to South Florida, Oklahoma and Tennessee last year, losing the latter 2 matchups. Now you can add 230 rushing yards from Florida State. 

In Nick Saban’s entire tenure from 2007 through 2023, Alabama lost 3 games in which it conceded 200 or more rushing yards. Three. DeBoer has already matched that total in just 14 games on the job. 

DeBoer’s buyout is roughly $70 million, so I don’t think firing him this year is a viable possibility (unless things get much worse). But someone has to pay for this — 4 losses as a double-digit favorite will not be acceptable to Alabama. For better or worse, Wommack is the likely fall guy. 

Selling: Auburn can contend for a Playoff spot this year

Auburn came away from Week 1 as a huge winner — it prevailed 38-24 on the road against a talented Baylor team. Jackson Arnold rushed for an absurd 137 yards and controlled the game mostly with his legs. Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb chipped in 16 carries apiece at roughly 5 yards a pop, too. Good numbers!

But in some ways, I’m more skeptical of Auburn’s viability as a Playoff contender than I was before this game. The Tigers managed just 280 yards on 53 plays on everything that wasn’t an Arnold rushing attempt. That’s about 5.3 yards per attempt. Arnold wasn’t trusted to do much as a passer — he threw for 108 yards on 17 passes and PFF credited him with an average depth of target of just 7.9 yards. That ranks 49th among quarterbacks with at least 25 drop-backs so far. 

And then there’s the matter of Auburn’s defense, which really struggled at times on Saturday. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Bears were terrible on third and fourth downs, or this could have been a much different result. I think Auburn will get too much credit on the back end of this victory even if it’s a nice momentum boost for a program that desperately needed one. 

Buying: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele had one of the best true freshman debuts in recent memory

If you stayed up for the late shift on Saturday night, you’ve probably already heard about Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Even if you didn’t watch Cal thrash Oregon State, you might’ve heard something about Sagapolutele’s prodigious debut. 

Sagapolutele completed 20-of-30 passes for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 34-15 drubbing of Oregon State. Sagapolutele beat out former Ohio State quarterback Devin Brown for the starting job in fall camp, and it’s not difficult to see why. The tall lefty looks like one of the most talented quarterbacks in the ACC. 

The advanced stats back up Sagapolutele’s debut. PFF gave him the highest passing grade of any starting QB in Week 1. He posted an average depth of target of 12.1 yards and didn’t have any turnover-worthy passes. Per Game on Paper, Cal averaged 7.83 yards per drop-back, which ranks in the 76th percentile. Sagapolutele is a name you’ll want to know moving forward and he might just change Cal’s entire outlook in the ACC this season. 

Selling: Garrett Nussmeier as a Heisman contender

Hats off to Garrett Nussmeier and LSU for a well-earned road win at Clemson on Saturday. It looked ugly for awhile, but LSU was pretty dominant in the second half — maybe even more so than the final score would indicate. Nussmeier lost an additional touchdown pass on a controversial replay decision in the second half, too. 

However, I’m not in on the Nussmeier Heisman campaign at this stage. After a Week 1 that saw Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik take damaging losses, Nussmeier is now the consensus leader in Heisman odds at around +800 depending on the book. But if you look under the hood at his performance vs. Clemson, I don’t think it’s as encouraging as it may seem. 

The primary reason is that Nussmeier and the LSU offense really leaned on wide receiver screen passes against Clemson. According to Pro Football Focus, Nussmeier completed 14 passes behind the line of scrimmage against the Tigers. Those passes made up about 37% of his overall attempts on the day (that figure was 16% for the full season in 2024). It seems Joe Sloan wants to use the wide receiver screen game as an extension of the LSU run game — Nussmeier threw several of these passes as LSU was in clock-churning mode on its final offensive drive of the game. 

This strategy shift, should it continue beyond Week 1, very well may result in LSU winning more games this season. But if you’re a Heisman bettor, I think you should be concerned about what this means for Nussmeier’s season-long outlook individually. His average depth of target vs. Clemson was just 4.4 yards. That’s abysmal and less than half of Nussmeier’s ADOT in 2024. Maybe LSU won’t highlight the screen game as much in future weeks, but I need to see it first. 

Pick: Garrett Nussmeier to NOT win the Heisman (89 cents per contract on Kalshi)

Buying: Michigan’s offense might have something this year

Look, Michigan played New Mexico on Saturday — not the best competition. And on paper, it wasn’t a tremendously noteworthy win. The Wolverines won 34-17 and were only up by 10 entering the fourth quarter. All of that is true. 

But here’s something to chew on: In neutral game states this weekend (the score margin being somewhere between -14 and +14 at the time of the play), Michigan was extremely impressive despite the underwhelming final score. The Wolverines had 6 plays from scrimmage of at least 25+ yards. Only Duke, who played Elon, had more (7). But Michigan also didn’t give up any 25+ yard plays this week, so the Wolverines led the country with a +6 differential in that category this weekend.

Bryce Underwood passed the eye test by all accounts and Michigan’s wide receiver room seems to be improved as well. Perhaps more importantly, Justice Haynes rushed for 3 touchdowns and nearly 10 yards per carry. That will play. 

Michigan plays Oklahoma in Week 2 on the road. It will be difficult for Underwood, a true freshman quarterback, to go into Norman and beat a Brent Venables defense. But the Sooners had enough red flags in their opener vs. Illinois State (3.45 yards per rush after adjusting for sacks) that I’m thinking Michigan deserves a bit more respect than it’s currently getting. 

Pick: Michigan +5.5 (-110 on bet365)

Selling: Arch Manning is a bust

There’s no sugarcoating it, Arch Manning had a tough day on Saturday vs. Ohio State. He was underwhelming basically from start to finish — both his first and last pass attempts of the day were missed throws to open receivers, one short and one high. But calling him a bust this early is just as egregious as hailing him as a college football’s savior in July. 

Manning and the Longhorns are left to pick up the pieces from an offseason hype machine they had no control over. I think they probably still can. Ohio State is really good — Manning’s 170 yards on 30 attempts is far from optimal but it’s also not disastrous. This performance doesn’t mean Manning can’t be an efficient quarterback this season. He missed a lot of relatively easy throws, but I think they’ll get him to a place where he’s accurate enough to still put up big numbers and lead Texas to a lot of wins this fall. 

The Heisman Trophy talk was always misplaced with Manning, who had just 95 career pass attempts before Saturday’s disappointing performance. Trust the process — Manning still has a lot of good football ahead of him this season. 

Pick: Texas to make the College Football Playoff (-188 on FanDuel)

Buying: Utah should be the favorite in the Big 12

Utah was getting some under-the-radar hype late in the offseason and now it’s clear why. The Utes thumped UCLA on Saturday, 43-10. Devon Dampier looked like arguably the crown jewel of this transfer QB class as he completed 21-of-25 passes for 206 yards and then ran for another 87 yards on the ground. 

I will pump the brakes slightly on the basis that Utah went a preposterous 14-of-17 on third down. But the Utes still crushed UCLA on a yards-per-play basis and the defense looked even better than advertised, too. 

Coming out of Week 1, Utah has emerged as the clear favorite to win the Big 12 this season. I think that’s correct and the Utes may still be a bit undervalued in that market given the struggles we’ve seen from teams like Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona State so far this year. 

Pick: Utah to win the Big 12 (+460 on FanDuel)

Selling: The SEC is broken

For a moment on Saturday, it looked like the SEC was headed toward a disaster. Texas and Alabama had already lost massive nonconference games and LSU trailed Clemson by a touchdown at the half. But LSU recovered and salvaged a solid weekend for the SEC. 

As it stands, the SEC went 14-2 this weekend with both of its losses coming on the road vs. power conference contenders. Texas’s loss isn’t a big surprise — the Longhorns were slight underdogs and that was always likely to be a coin flip game between teams with inexperienced quarterbacks. Alabama’s defeat is catastrophe for Alabama, but I don’t see it as a major issue for the SEC as a whole. 

Let’s not overlook the bright spots — Kentucky and Mississippi State avoided losing to some dangerous group-of-5 programs. Auburn and Tennessee won by double-digits away from home against power-conference teams. South Carolina did the same vs. Virginia Tech. In the end, the SEC went 4-2 against other power conferences and none of those 6 matchups came at home. Any other league producing that result would be celebrating it. 

Compare the SEC’s weekend to the Big Ten. Northwestern got smoked by Tulane and UCLA was obliterated by Utah. The Big Ten went 2-1 vs. power conference opponents. 

Compare the SEC’s weekend to the ACC. Clemson lost a high-profile game to LSU. Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State by 1. Syracuse got crushed by the Vols. Virginia Tech couldn’t get much going against South Carolina. The ACC went 3-3 vs. power conference opponents. 

Compare the SEC’s weekend to the Big 12. Kansas State needed a last-second touchdown to beat North Dakota. Cincinnati lost to Nebraska. Baylor got trounced at home by Auburn. Colorado won the turnover battle by 3 vs. Georgia Tech and still lost. The Big 12 went 1-3 against power-conference opponents.

The Alabama loss stings, but the SEC still clearly had the best weekend of any of the power conferences.

Buying: South Carolina has real problems on offense

South Carolina ended up with a big win over Virginia Tech on Sunday afternoon, but it wasn’t without its warts. The Gamecocks struggled on offense, particularly through the first 3 quarters, as they averaged just 5.3 yards per play over that span before getting to 7.5 yards per play in the fourth quarter. 

Even with a fourth-quarter barrage, South Carolina ended the game with a sub-40% success rate — that’s not going to be good enough most of the time in the SEC. The offensive line in particular was a big problem as the Hokies sacked LaNorris Sellers 4 times and held the Gamecocks to under 3.5 yards per rush. 

I also remain skeptical of offensive coordinator Mika Shula, who was promoted this offseason following the departure of Dowell Loggains. Maybe Shula will turn out to be good at this, but I’d argue his appointment was a much bigger risk than most seem to be giving it credit for. This is his first full-time college coaching position since his failed stint as Alabama’s head coach 20 years ago. And he hasn’t called plays at any level since he was the Giants’ OC in 2019. 

Despite the win, there’s a lot for South Carolina to clean up if the Gamecocks are going to be CFP contenders. The good news is LaNorris Sellers absolutely looks the part of an elite QB even despite South Carolina’s blemishes on offense. 

Selling: Notre Dame can still get back in the CFP hunt

Of course, Notre Dame’s season isn’t over. The Fighting Irish lost to Northern Illinois in Week 2 last season and still made it to the title game. Recovery is possible — and is something Marcus Freeman has been especially good at during his tenure. 

But Notre Dame’s CFP hopes sure took a massive hit this weekend. Not only did the Fighting Irish lose to Miami in a crusher on Sunday night, but their strength-of-schedule also took a massive blow with Boise State’s uncompetitive loss to South Florida earlier in the week. 

Looking ahead at this schedule now, Notre Dame may only have a couple more opportunities at an impressive win — vs. Texas A&M in Week 3 and vs. USC on Oct. 18. Beyond that, the best team Notre Dame may face this year is … NC State? Arkansas? 

Notre Dame at 9-3 has virtually no shot to get into the Playoff given this remaining schedule, in my opinion. Maybe 10-2 or 11-1 is still possible, but I’d bet against it.