It feels good to be back.
Each week, this series will seek to identify some popular misconceptions that have emerged after a given slate of college football games. Week 0 is always severely abbreviated from a quantity standpoint, but there are still some takeaways to be gleaned after breaking down some of the underlying data from Saturday’s games.
Finding value after Week 0
With that being said, here are a few ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 0:
Selling: Rocco Becht is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12
I came into the year a bit lower on Becht than the consensus and nothing I saw in Week 0 changed that opinion. While he was able to lead Iowa State to a win in sloppy Dublin conditions, his efficiency lagged. He averaged 6.5 yards per attempt and his dead-end throw rate was north of 57%.
You could certainly argue some of those efficiency issues were related to the weather in Dublin, but I’m more concerned about Iowa State’s wide receiver room. The Cyclones lost a lot of receiver talent to the NFL this offseason and I’m not convinced they’ve adequately reloaded. Downstream of Iowa State receivers not getting open is the 4 sacks that Becht took on Saturday. That’s a pretty big number considering he only dropped back 36 times in this game.
I think Becht is pretty talented. Former quarterbacks-turned-analysts like Danny Kanell and Chase Daniel have been singing his praises since the end of Farmageddon. I’m not here to disagree with them. I just think it’s going to be an uphill battle for Becht to be as efficient as he was a year ago, and that wasn’t a particularly high bar to begin with. I don’t see an edge on Iowa State’s updated win total, but there may be some value in fading the Cyclones in their Week 2 rivalry game vs. Iowa.
Actionable bet to consider: Iowa +108 vs. Iowa State on Sept. 6 (via FanDuel)
Selling: Western Kentucky looks like a Conference USA contender
Western Kentucky covered a double-digit spread in its opener against Sam Houston, winning 41-24. That may seem comfortable, but it wasn’t. The Bearkats had chances to win this game — and had an opportunity to cover +10.5 in the final minute but couldn’t find the back door after getting to the 1-yard line.
Western Kentucky was out-gained by Sam Houston on a per-play basis and really struggled to move the ball outside of a handful of explosive plays. Over 57% of WKU’s total yardage came on 9 plays. On WKU’s other 75 plays, the Hilltoppers averaged a whopping 2.9 yards per play.
This game really came down to 3rd-down execution. Sam Houston was 2-for-14 (and 0-for-3 on 4th down) while Western Kentucky went 11-for-19. The Bearkats couldn’t buy a conversion all night and the Hilltoppers were running pretty hot on 3rd down. If a few of those key plays turn out differently, this outcome could have very well been different.
Maybe Western Kentucky figures out its issues and ends up contending for the CUSA title at the end of the year. For now, I think Liberty — the favorite at most sportsbooks — may be a bit undervalued after watching WKU in Week 0.
Actionable bet to consider: Liberty +125 to win Conference USA (via bet365)
Buying: Yeah, UNLV’s defense really is that bad
UNLV was the only FBS team who matched up against an FCS opponent in Week 0. And yet, somehow the Running Rebels found a way to have the absolute worst defensive performance of the day. Idaho State put up 7.2 yards per play — a frankly embarrassing number for UNLV’s defense. It wasn’t all big plays, either. Idaho State had a 49% success rate in Week 0 according to Game on Paper. That netted it a whopping 30 first downs.
This is a UNLV defense that’s absolutely littered with transfers. Dan Mullen’s defense has newcomers at all 3 levels of the defense and there’s very little continuity from last year’s UNLV team that won 11 games. Maybe UNLV will get better as the season goes along, but for now at least, I’m fading UNLV unders. Of course, UNLV’s offense being electric with Anthony Colandrea under center certainly adds to the confidence level.
Actionable bet to consider: UNLV vs. Sam Houston total over 60.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
