Let’s review Week 11 of the college football season.
As we do every week in this piece, we’ll take a look at some of the emerging narratives from this past Saturday and see if they can be backed up by publicly-available data. Last week, we discussed Notre Dame’s impressive underlying metrics in Week 9, the ACC’s path to being a 1-bid league, Virginia’s under-the-radar struggles, Texas Tech’s prowess and much more.
Week 11 college football takeaways
Here are 10 college football ideas to buy or sell coming out of Week 11:
Buying: Yes, the ACC really is that bad
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, the ACC had to play another Saturday’s worth of games this week. Three of the ACC’s best teams lost in heartbreaking fashion. Duke fell to UConn, losing its third nonconference game of the year (none of which were to particularly great teams). Louisville lost to Cal and Virginia lost to Wake Forest.
Simply put, it’s been a disastrous year for the ACC. That league has been a punching bag in both major revenue sports for a couple years now but never has it earned its jabs more than this season. Here are a couple of stats to consider. First: According to ESPN’s FPI, Duke has a 2.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff but a 19.9% chance to win the ACC.
Let that sink for a second. That implies there’s a very real potential that the ACC’s champion could get left out of the CFP this season. If that champion is Duke (the Blue Devils currently have the second-best odds behind Georgia Tech per FPI) then there will be good-faith conversations about whether Duke belongs in the CFP over either of the top G5 champions. The AAC is very likely to get a team into the 12-team field. But don’t sleep on the Sun Belt’s James Madison, which could very well end up this season with a 12-1 record.
While the ACC is considered one of the “power” conferences, it has fallen well short of that this season. Here’s how the other conferences have fared against each other (and Notre Dame) in nonconference play this season:
- SEC: 10-4, +45 point differential
- Big 12: 9-7, +35 point differential
- Big Ten: 5-7, -16 point differential
- ACC: 6-15, -183 point differential
One of those things is not like the other.
Selling: Oregon is a national title contender
Full credit to Oregon for going into Iowa and getting a win in some tough conditions. But that is not how a national title contender handles its business. The Ducks have looked lost on offense too often this season — this is their third Big Ten win that was much, much closer than it should have been. Oregon only beat Wisconsin by 14 and had to go to overtime with Penn State (a result that seemed impressive at the time, but has aged poorly).
I’m most concerned about Dante Moore, who has regressed from his early-season Heisman contention status. Over his last 4 games, Moore has a 5-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and his yards-per-attempt has dipped to 7.5.
On Kalshi, a predictions market legal in all 50 US states, you can wager on teams to not win the national championship. I like fading the Ducks at a price of 96 cents per contract.
Buying: LSU should make a QB change
This is something of a no-brainer. Garrett Nussmeier is out of eligibility this season and hasn’t looked right all year. It’s unfortunate for Nussmeier, who could have left for the NFL Draft after last season but decided to return to school in hopes of improving his draft stock and competing for a national championship in Baton Rouge.
But with the way things have gone, LSU should look to get some meaningful reps with Michael Van Buren under center. The Mississippi State transfer looked pretty good in limited reps this past week against Alabama. Other schools will certainly be inquiring about Van Buren when the transfer portal opens, so it would behoove LSU to know just how much it believes in him as the quarterback of the future. With 4 losses already this season, there’s nothing left to gain — or learn — from the Nussmeier experience.
Buying: Notre Dame can win the national title
I was out on Notre Dame after it picked up its second loss of the season, but that was clearly premature. The Fighting Irish have seemingly fixed their issues on defense. Critics may point to Notre Dame’s soft strength-of-schedule over the last couple of months, and that would be fair. But Notre Dame’s defense sucked against Purdue back in September, too. Since then, the Fighting Irish have held all but one opponent (USC) to under 14 points. That includes wins over Arkansas, Boise State, NC State and, most recently, Navy.
The other major development is that CJ Carr might be a future No. 1 overall draft pick. He has been lights-out in his first year as Notre Dame’s starter. Per PFF, Carr has a big-time throw rate of 7.5%, which ranks 2nd nationally among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Carr also has an average depth of target of 11.2 yards (also 2nd nationally) and has thrown just 4 interceptions all season. He looks like the real deal. I think Notre Dame will have no problem with Pitt this weekend.
Pick: Notre Dame -10.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Selling: Alabama’s offense is still excellent
Alabama hasn’t lost a game since the season-opener, but the Crimson Tide’s offense has been quietly regressing over the last few weeks. That trend continued on Saturday as Alabama posted a below-average EPA-per-play on offense for the second week in a row in a win over LSU. Your mileage may vary on how much Alabama should actually care about that given the win column keeps getting filled up week after week.
But this is an Alabama team that hasn’t been able to run the ball all season and now has a passing offense that’s beginning to stall. One big issue is that Ty Simpson is struggling against pressure. Per PFF, Simpson is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt against pressure this season and has a turnover-worthy play rate of 7.2%. Both of those numbers are alarming, but here’s another red flag — Simpson doesn’t have any interceptions against pressure this season, suggesting he’s likely due for some regression to the mean in the turnover department.
Pick: Oklahoma +7 vs. Alabama (-110 on bet365)
Selling: Texas Tech can win the National Championship
I don’t think this is an opinion that’s held too tightly by fans across the country, but I’m selling any notion that the Red Raiders could contend for college football’s top prize. Tech’s win over BYU on Saturday was loud, but it was largely thanks to its defense. Despite a 29-7 final score, the Red Raiders had just a 33% success rate and a negative EPA-per-play on the day, according to Game on Paper.
It’s also worth noting Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton is reportedly playing through a hairline fracture in his leg. Tech has already lost its backup quarterback for the season, so that’s extremely concerning. The College Football Playoff in this era is a war of attrition as much as it is anything else. The Red Raiders have neither the high-end talent nor the durability to seriously contend for the national title this season.
Like Oregon, Texas Tech’s “no” side to the national championship market on Kalshi is priced at 96 cents per contract.
Buying: Texas A&M can win the SEC
Texas A&M turned in a pretty dominant performance against a short-handed Mizzou team on Saturday in Columbia. The Aggies haven’t been perfect this season, but they’ve been really close. They might have the best profile of road wins in the country this season — Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri. Marcel Reed continues to play well enough for Texas A&M to separate from opponents in the second half.
Perhaps most importantly, Texas A&M’s defense has continued to take steps forward. Per Game on Paper, the Aggies rank 5th nationally in pass defense success rate. They also don’t allow explosive plays through the air — they rate in the 81st percentile nationally in that category. At this point, I think Texas A&M should be the odds-on favorite to win the SEC.
Pick: Texas A&M to win the SEC (+160 on DraftKings)
Buying: The Heisman Trophy race will likely be decided by the Big Ten Championship Game
Could Ty Simpson or Marcel Reed still win the Heisman Trophy? Sure, it’s possible. But I think the overwhelming likelihood is that the winner of the Big Ten title game between Ohio State and Indiana will also take home college football’s most prestigious individual honor. Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin have separated from the rest of the pack in Heisman Trophy betting odds.
Simpson has been floundering down the stretch, so he’d need to make a big turnaround in order to get back into the mix in late November. Reed’s passing numbers just aren’t there from an efficiency standpoint — he enters Week 12 ranked 26th in passer efficiency rating (Mendoza and Sayin are top 2 in that category).
Bettors who agree with that sentiment could find value in betting on the Heisman rather than the outcome of the Big Ten title game. The best-in-market odds for Ohio State to win the Big Ten are -150 while Sayin’s price to win the Heisman Trophy is +185. On the other side, Indiana is +150 to win the Big Ten while Mendoza is +190 to win the Heisman. Something to consider.
Selling: Maryland is hopeless
I’m on the Terps this week coming off of their third-straight loss. Maryland lost to Rutgers 35-20, but the box score suggests this game was much closer. Maryland averaged 7 yards per play in the loss but only scored 20 points because of poor execution on late downs. For context, the mean number of points scored by teams who average between 7 and 8 yards per play this year is 38.8. I think we’ll see some regression to the mean this week for the Terps. I also like that Maryland is playing an Illinois team that ranks shockingly low (109th) in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric.
Pick: Maryland +14 (-110 on Fanatics)
Selling: It’s time to give up on Washington
Washington had one of the most disappointing results of the weekend with its 13-10 loss to Wisconsin. The defeat will certainly end any hope of reaching the College Football Playoff this season, but I still like the Huskies to win another game or 2 down the stretch. For one thing, Wisconsin’s win was pretty flukey — Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy metric gave the Badgers just a 19.4% chance to earn the outright win.
Washington has also been a much better team at home than on the road this season. The Huskies have won their last 2 home games by 3+ scores (and gave Ohio State a pretty good game prior to those results). On the road, Washington has lost to Wisconsin, was uncompetitive against Michigan and nearly lost to Maryland. The Huskies are back home this week against Purdue and I think the price is too cheap.
Pick: Washington -16.5 (-110 on bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
