Week 2 of the 2025 college football season is in the books.
As always, this piece will seek to break down some of the popular narratives emerging from the previous week and see if they can be backed up by data. Last week, for example, we broke down Garrett Nussmeier’s Heisman Trophy candidacy, why Arch Manning deserves more patience, South Carolina’s offensive struggles and plenty more.
What to buy or sell in college football after Week 2
Here’s what I’m buying or selling after Week 2:
Buying: Oklahoma’s offense is back
John Mateer is the closest thing college football has to a pure chaos agent in 2025. He’s pushing the ball down the field successfully (average depth of target is 9.5 yards), yet recklessly (5.1% turnover-worthy play rate). He’s also one of just 3 FBS quarterbacks to have a big-time throw rate higher than 8% so far this year (min. 70 drop-backs) according to PFF.
That combination of rash determination and legit skill is pretty rare at the college level. I don’t think it’s necessarily going to result in a Mateer Heisman campaign, mostly because the turnover risk on any given down is pretty significant. But Oklahoma is still in a situation that’s worlds better than it was a year ago.
Mateer is getting most of the love in the wake of OU’s win, but offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle deserves a ton of credit. The Sooners played keep-away from Michigan (11 plays from scrimmage) in the fourth quarter largely due to a really well-executed game plan from Arbuckle. OU found ways to take space in the run game down the stretch, often with Mateer’s physicality. OU went on a 16-play, 78-yard field goal drive in the fourth that essentially iced the game.
I do still have some concerns about Oklahoma’s ability to run the ball with its running backs. They’ve been really poor through 2 games. But Mateer is clearly an SEC-caliber playmaker and Arbuckle is a massive upgrade over what the Sooners had at OC a year ago.
Pick: Oklahoma over 3.5 wins in SEC play (-130 on bet365)
Selling: Tulane is the favorite to emerge from the G5 for a Playoff spot
If you go by the latest college football odds, Tulane is co-favorites with South Florida to emerge from the Group of 6 and earn a Playoff berth. DraftKings has both those programs priced at +450 to do so, with Boise State not far behind at +500.
Of that group, South Florida certainly seems like the best bet — especially considering its head-to-head win over the Broncos. But I mainly want to use this space to talk about Tulane’s shortcomings so far this year that, in my opinion, are not being reflected in these odds.
In Week 1, Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff threw for under 5 yards per attempt in a 23-3 win over Northwestern. Retzlaff arrived at Tulane very late in the offseason, so an adjustment period was likely always going to be part of the equation here. But then he struggled again vs. South Alabama — just 125 yards on 24 attempts.
More alarmingly, Tulane’s defense was pushed around by South Alabama. The Jaguars averaged 6.5 yards per play, including 190 yards on the ground, and nearly won outright as 2-touchdown underdogs. Per Game on Paper, South Alabama averaged 9.4 yards per dropback, which would have been good enough for the 88th percentile in that category in 2024. And this was against a South Alabama team that lost its starting quarterback, Gio Lopez, to North Carolina after spring ball. Things can change, but at present moment, Tulane seems very far away from being a legitimate Playoff contender this season.
Buying: Alex Golesh is a future SEC head coach
Move over, Jon Sumrall — there’s a new hot SEC head coaching candidate on the market. After leading South Florida to back-to-back ranked wins over Boise State and Florida, Alex Golesh is likely to be at the front of the line for whichever SEC jobs open this winter. That could include Florida if — and, more likely, when — Billy Napier is fired. Auburn, LSU and Oklahoma are off to good starts, but any of those jobs could still open, too, and Golesh would be a sensible candidate.
The advanced stats mostly back up both of Golesh’s top-25 wins this year. Per Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy, the Bulls had a 98.5% chance to beat Boise State and a 53.9% chance to beat Florida. USF is also 13th nationally in adjusted net EPA per play, according to Game on Paper.
I also like that Golesh comes from the Josh Heupel tree — Heupel is one of the better program managers in the country. Combine that with Golesh’s play-calling and you may have something special.
Selling: Illinois is a worthy top-10 team
Despite the gaudy 45-19 final score, Illinois was out-played by Duke for a majority of this game. The Blue Devils made mistake after mistake — muffed punts, senseless interceptions, dropped passes, undisciplined penalties, coverage busts and basically anything else you can think of. But when you look at the underlying numbers, they’re not very impressive for the Illini.
According to Game on Paper, Duke had a higher success rate, was more efficient on drop backs and averaged more yards per play. Illinois won anyway because it was +4 in turnover margin and was much better on third down. Credit to the Illini for that performance, but I doubt that kind of turnover luck will be sustainable through a full season in the Big Ten.
No. 9 Illinois plays Western Michigan this week, so I don’t have a pick for this one. But I will be keeping an eye on any look-ahead lines for USC vs. Illinois on Sept. 27. There could be a real opportunity to fade the Illini in that matchup.
Buying: Mississippi State is a much-improved team
I was unfair to Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs, too slow to come off my priors after last year’s disastrous debut season. I’m still skeptical about what Mississippi State will look like after a consistent stream of SEC games, but the Bulldogs pulled off a mightilymimpressive win over Arizona State on Saturday night.
Mississippi State is almost always going to be at a talent disadvantage when it faces ranked teams. The key to succeeding in places like Starkville and Lexington and Nashville and Evanston and Winston-Salem and so many other places is this: Do you have a coach who can elevate your roster to be greater than the sum of its parts?
Last year, it looked like the answer to that question with Lebby was a resounding “no.” Last year, Mississippi State would have been blown out in this spot. Now, there looks to be real progress toward a sustainable future in Starkville for Lebby and his staff.
Buying: Billy Napier’s fate is sealed
Fair or not, I don’t think Napier can recover from this loss. Fans and boosters were already agitated from Florida’s slow start a year ago, which included a blowout loss to Miami in the early part of the season. Frankly, in this era of boosters being willing to pay high-dollar buyouts, it’s remarkable Napier was able to earn another season in charge.
The reality is that Florida has underachieved based on its level of talent under Napier. The Gators have signed a top-20 recruiting class (per 247Sports Composite rankings) every year Napier has been at the helm. That includes a top-5 transfer class in 2024. And yet, here are Florida’s final SP+ finishes under Napier:
- 2022: 34th
- 2023: 41st
- 2024: 20th
Napier defenders could point to legitimate progress being made in 2024, but the loss to USF on Saturday halts any momentum the Gators may have had. It would take a herculean effort from Florida to save Napier’s job at this point considering the schedule that lies ahead. And if Florida was capable of such an effort, why didn’t it happen against the Bulls?
The other factor here is Napier’s buyout is tiny by modern standards. Depending on the timing of his (probable) firing, Florida could owe Napier less than $20 million. In theory, that number is small enough to relieve a lot of the friction around making a decision.
Selling: South Carolina is a CFP contender
Last week I put my hand on the panic button, today I’m smashing it. The Gamecocks averaged 4.52 yards per play on Saturday in a 38-10 win over South Carolina State. That’s an abhorrent offensive showing for a team going against an FCS opponent. The Gamecocks didn’t even score an offensive touchdown in the first half. Of their 17 points before the break, 14 were scored on punt returns by Vicari Swain.
It’s pretty rare for a power-conference offense to amass under 4.6 yards per play against an FCS opponent. Since the start of the 2018 season, this is only the 13th time it’s happened. Considering most FBS powers play an FCS team once a season, that’s pretty staggering. Here’s a look at the previous 12 teams who failed to meet that benchmark and where they finished the season ranked nationally in yards per play:
As you can see, it’s a pretty solid indicator that your offense stinks if you struggle to this degree against an FCS opponent. Only 3 of the 11 teams to do this prior to 2025 had offenses that finished in the top 100 nationally for their given season.
Given what South Carolina is still trying to replace on defense, the offense was going to need to carry this team in 2025. Even with a Heisman Trophy frontrunner in LaNorris Sellers, it seems pretty conclusive at this point that won’t be the case. The Gamecocks have a really tough schedule ahead that features Mizzou, LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Kentucky in SEC play. There’s a chance South Carolina’s offense is meaningfully worse than every team on that list save for Kentucky.
Pick: South Carolina under 3.5 SEC wins (+105 on bet365)
Selling: Ole Miss is an SEC contender
The SEC appears to be wide open after just 2 weeks, but I feel pretty comfortable excluding Ole Miss from the top tier. I came into the year relatively low on the Rebels, picking them to miss the CFP at -230. That price at FanDuel has increased to -400, so the betting markets are also down on the Rebels compared to where they were at the start of the year.
Despite a 2-0 record that includes an SEC road win, it’s been an underwhelming start to the year for Austin Simmons. He’s already thrown 4 interceptions and has a turnover-worthy play rate of just under 8%, per Pro Football Focus. That’s a pretty brutal number considering Ole Miss’s opponents so far have been Georgia State and Kentucky, who might be the worst team in the SEC.
Simmons showed off his inexperience against the Wildcats with 2 early interceptions. Against better teams, those types of turnovers could be the difference in winning or losing.
It’s also worth noting the Ole Miss run defense has been really poor to start the year. The Rebels rank outside the top 100 in rush defense success rate and rush defense EPA, per Game on Paper.
Buying: Diego Pavia may be leveling up
Before the season began, I took the over on Diego Pavia’s season-long passing yardage total with the idea that Vandy would have to throw the ball more in 2025. So far, Vandy’s passing rate hasn’t increased, but Pavia’s efficiency is at an all-time high.
In wins over Charleston Southern and Virginia Tech, Pavia is averaging 10.9 yards per attempt. For context, his season-long number for that category last season was 7.7 (and even that number was respectable). Per PFF, Pavia’s average depth of target is 11.1 yards — meaning he’s pushing the ball downfield as well as pretty much anyone in the country. He’s also cut his turnover-worthy play rate so far to a decent 3.6%.
It’s a very small sample size, but I’m pretty intrigued with this early progress from Pavia and I’m not sure he’s received adequate respect for it. That will change if Vandy’s offense has a big game against South Carolina this weekend.
Pick: Vanderbilt over 20.5 points vs. South Carolina in Week 3 (-118 on FanDuel)
Selling: Maryland can make a bowl
Maryland is off to a 2-0 start with double-digit wins over Northern Illinois and Florida Atlantic already in the can. Unfortunately, the underlying data points to an offense that’s going to be grossly overmatched when Big Ten play begins.
The Terps are 131st nationally in EPA-per-rush on offense, according to Game on Paper. The rushing offense has been abysmal both in terms of creating explosive plays and finding situation success. Through Week 2, there are 100 FBS teams who have had at least 1 rush go for 20 yards; Maryland is not one of them. The Terps only have 5 rushes of 10+ yards, which is tied for 120th nationally. Maryland is also ranked outside the top 100 in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
The passing game has only been marginally better (92nd in the country in EPA-per-pass). It’s important to keep in mind this is a sample size of just 2 games, but it’s not as if we’re having to reign in expectations after 2 great performances. Is Maryland really going to improve significantly on offense as the competition gets stiffer? That doesn’t seem likely. So while the defense has been good (especially against the pass) my expectations for Maryland the rest of the year are very low.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
