We’ve made it to Week 5 of the college football season.
Before we get to one of the best slates of the year, though, it’s time to review what we learned in Week 4. This piece will seek to identify value in the betting markets where public perception of a team or player may not necessarily reflect the underlying data. Last week, we discussed Dante Moore’s Heisman candidacy, Arch Manning’s ongoing struggles, USC’s emergence as a contender, and a lot more.
College football predictions after Week 4
Here’s a breakdown of what I’m buying or selling in college football after this week:
Buying: Notre Dame has real issues on defense
Notre Dame notched its first win of the season on Saturday with a decisive victory over Purdue, but it was far from a flawless performance. For the first time in the Marcus Freeman era, Notre Dame appears to have major defensive issues. In the past, it’s been the offensive side of the ball that’s plagued Notre Dame in both big games like last year’s national title game and in small games like last year’s loss to Northern Illinois.
Against Purdue on Saturday, Notre Dame allowed the Boilermakers to post above-average EPA-per-play numbers, success rates and explosive play rates across the board. Given that Notre Dame has a new defensive coordinator in Chris Ash, it’s worth looking under the hood a bit. Through 3 games, Notre Dame is 99th nationally in yards-per-play allowed. The Irish are 125th in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper.
In Week 5, Notre Dame will head to Fayetteville to take on an Arkansas team that looks like a brutal matchup for a team that’s struggling to find its way on defense. Despite losing to Memphis this past week, the Razorbacks have an elite offense that is very much capable of running Notre Dame out of the stadium on Saturday if the Irish don’t come ready for a fight.
Pick: Arkansas over 28.5 points vs. Notre Dame (-115 on DraftKings)
Selling: Clemson is completely helpless
Even after falling to 1-3 on the season, I don’t think Clemson is completely helpless. Don’t get me wrong — this isn’t a College Football Playoff contender. I don’t think a run to the ACC title game is coming. But the stat sheet vs. Syracuse suggests Clemson is in better shape than the final score does. The Tigers lost by 13 despite out-gaining the Orange by about a half yard per play. Clemson’s success rate also was significantly better, per Game on Paper (51% to 35%).
Not that it will be any consolation to Clemson fans, but there’s also this: Clemson has won about 1.2 fewer games than would be expected based on box score data, according to Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula. That’s the second-worst mark in the country, suggesting that some positive regression should be coming. Clemson is idle in Week 5 but I’ll almost certainly be backing the Tigers when it takes on North Carolina in a couple of weeks.
Buying: Ahmad Hardy is a major problem for the SEC
I loved Ahmad Hardy in the preseason, predicting he would lead the SEC in rushing before he ever took a snap for Mizzou. That prediction was based mostly on his numbers from his freshman season as well as Missouri’s history of having high-volume running backs at the top of the SEC’s rushing leaderboard. The volume part of that argument was spot on — he leads the SEC in carries after Week 4. However, I may have undersold just how good Hardy is as a running back regardless of his workload.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hardy is averaging 5.73 yards after contact per attempt so far this season. For context, there are only a dozen SEC players who are averaging 5.73 yards per rush at all — let alone after contact.
In fact, here’s a look at the SEC’s leading rushers this season:
- Ahmad Hardy, 600 yards
- Ahmad Hardy, 458 yards (after contact)
- Jeremiah Cobb, 375 yards
That is insane. PFF also says Hardy has already forced 37 missed tackles this season. That leads the country, and only one other power conference running back is even within 10 of that number. He should be far and away the frontrunner for the Doak Walker Award at this stage.
Selling: Oklahoma is good enough to win a Playoff game
After Week 2, I wrote about Oklahoma’s improved offense — and it remains true that the Sooners are much, much better on that side of the ball than they were a year ago. That goes without saying at this point. But some red flags are beginning to emerge with Oklahoma, mostly on the offensive side of the ball.
To be specific, I’m officially concerned about Oklahoma’s running game. John Mateer has been pretty good on the ground this season, but the Sooners’ running backs have been putrid. True freshman running back Tory Blaylock appears to have won the starting job over the highly-paid Jaydn Ott and the veteran Jovantae Barnes, among others. But no matter who is back there, OU hasn’t moved the ball on the ground against either of its P4 opponents this season. Oklahoma running backs are averaging 2.26 yards per carry against P4 defenses this year. Among 62 teams that have faced at least 2 P4 defenses, that ranks 60th (ahead of only Ball State and Central Michigan).
I’ll also raise some concerns about Oklahoma’s cornerback room, which was mostly dominated by Auburn’s receiver room on Saturday. Cam Coleman was the main problem for the Sooners, and Coleman is going to be an issue for almost every team Auburn faces this year. But it was still alarming to see the degree to which he was able to get open downfield — a better quarterback than Jackson Arnold would have punished the Sooners repeatedly on Saturday. OU could still get to the Playoff because the rest of this defense is loaded and Mateer has substantially risen OU’s offensive floor, but I think the ceiling for this team may still be relatively low.
Buying: UNLV has a path to the Playoff
UNLV squeaked out a win over Miami (Ohio) on Saturday. It wasn’t the best performance for the Rebels, but I do think they deserved better than the narrow 41-38 victory they got. The Redhawks scored on a kick return and a pick-6 or this one likely would have been over after 3 quarters.
UNLV’s offense gives it a legitimate chance to run the table. It already has a win over a Big Ten program — albeit a bad one in UCLA. Its path to 13-0 also would require UNLV to win at Boise State on Oct. 18. UNLV would then likely have to beat Boise State again in the Mountain West title game in December. It’s not particularly likely, but I do think there’s a chance UNLV’s offense might be good enough to create some 13-0 outcomes. And if that does happen, UNLV would be right in the mix for a Playoff berth.
Pick: UNLV to win the Mountain West (+420 on BetMGM)
However …
Buying: The AAC getting the G5’s Playoff berth is the most likely outcome
Although I think there’s a path for UNLV, it’s much more likely that the G5’s Playoff rep comes from the American this season. That’s largely because the AAC has had a tremendous showing in nonconference games this year. Here’s how many wins each league has produced in nonconference games against power-conference opponents (plus Notre Dame):
- SEC: 10
- Big 12: 9
- ACC: 6
- American: 6
- Big Ten: 5
- Mountain West: 4
None of the other G5 leagues has more than 1 such victory.
The American also has a better winning percentage than the ACC in these games. The Mountain West does have 4 wins, but its winning percentage is much lower.
Who from the AAC is most likely to get the bid? USF is the obvious answer, given the Bulls’ wins over Boise State and Florida to begin the year. But I wouldn’t rule out Memphis, which just beat Arkansas in Week 4, or North Texas, which has become something of an analytical darling after the first month of the season. The Mean Green rank 21st in schedule-adjusted net EPA after Week 4, per Game on Paper. Tulane is also still among the betting favorites to win the AAC despite the shellacking it took from Ole Miss in Week 4.
Selling: Florida can turn this thing around
Florida’s offense appears to be beyond the point of no return. The Gators averaged just 2.7 yards per play against Miami on Saturday night. By all accounts, the Canes have a great defense. But 2.7 yards per play is inexcusable for a team that’s as talented as Florida is. That’s rare air for any SEC team, let alone one like this Gators squad that had College Football Playoff aspirations as recently as 3 weeks ago.
DJ Lagway hit rock bottom against the Canes. He threw for just 61 yards on 23 attempts, good for 2.65 yards per attempt. That’s the second-lowest yards-per-attempt figure by an FBS quarterback in any game this season (min. 20 passes). It’s the lowest figure in that category for an SEC quarterback since Mizzou’s Connor Bazelak hit 2.5 yards per attempt in a loss to Arkansas back in 2021.
After 4 games, Florida ranks 94th nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. The Gators’ passing offense ranks outside of the top-100 nationally in EPA per play and success rate. Lagway is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt — nearly half of what he posted a year ago across a larger sample size. Given the injury issues Lagway dealt with this past offseason — he missed most of spring and fall camp — it would be prudent for him to consider a redshirt year. This is clearly not the same quarterback we saw last season and I have to think his injury situation is the primary reason why.
Selling: Fernando Mendoza is a Heisman Trophy frontrunner
Just like that, Fernando Mendoza is your Heisman Trophy favorite (+800) at FanDuel. I don’t really buy the idea that Mendoza can win the award. We saw Kurtis Rourke put up massive efficiency numbers in this offense last year and he never really sniffed the Heisman conversation. (He finished ninth behind the likes of Army quarterback Bryson Daily and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders.) I think Mendoza is more talented than Rourke, but IU also plays a tougher schedule. The Hoosiers play Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State all on the road this season.
Would they have to sweep those games and run the table elsewhere in order for Mendoza to win the award? I think they might. Again — last season at Indiana, Rourke finished second nationally in passer efficiency rating, led the Hoosiers to an 11-1 record, and finished ninth in Heisman voting. I think Indiana would legitimately have to win the Big Ten for Mendoza to win the Heisman Trophy. At FanDuel, IU is +1400 to win the Big Ten but Mendoza is +800 to win the Heisman — that’s not adding up in my opinion.
Selling: Vanderbilt can keep this up
Vanderbilt has been awesome this season. Point blank. The Commodores are fourth nationally with a +139 point differential entering Week 5. Diego Pavia is averaging more yards per attempt than Taylen Green, Marcel Reed, Carson Beck, and a whole lot of other really good quarterbacks. But I do have some questions about whether or not this offensive hot streak is sustainable. For one thing, Pavia’s yards-per-attempt on a game-by-game basis are a little suspicious — he was over 10 in that category against Indiana State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia State, but much closer to 7 against South Carolina.
Vanderbilt is also converting third downs at a very high rate (over 60%) despite slotting in around the 57th percentile in average third-down distance, per Game on Paper. Pavia has attempted 14 passes on third-and-5 or longer. He’s completing over 71% of those attempts (P4 average so far this year is 56%) and 9 of those have gone for first downs. I think we’ll see some regression for Vandy’s offense in SEC play, but that might even come this weekend against Utah State with a rematch against Alabama looming in Week 6.
Pick: Vanderbilt team total under 41.5 vs. Utah State (-110 on DraftKings)
Selling: Penn State has major issues on offense
Look, Penn State’s offensive numbers haven’t been great so far this season, particularly in the passing game. I understand that Drew Allar has become something of a punching bag along with James Franklin, but I have a hard time believing this Penn State offense is as mediocre as the numbers make it seem. Entering this week’s massive clash with Oregon, Penn State ranks 80th nationally in EPA-per-pass, according to Game on Paper.
A big reason for that dropoff in efficiency is the lack of explosive passing plays. Penn State is roughly dead last in that category, per Game on Paper. The Nittany Lions have 3 passing plays of 30+ yards all season despite facing a relatively soft schedule that includes FIU, Villanova and Nevada.
At this point, you have to believe one of two things: 1) Penn State is one of the least-explosive passing offenses in the entire country, or 2) Penn State has been playing possum against its soft nonconference schedule to begin the year. I’m inclined to side with the latter group, if only because of Andy Kotelnicki’s track record of producing explosive plays. Here’s how Kotelnicki’s offenses have ranked (per Game on Paper) in explosive pass rate over his previous 8 years as an offensive coordinator:
- 2024: 74th percentile (Penn State)
- 2023: 99th percentile (Kansas)
- 2022: 99th percentile (Kansas)
- 2021: 69th percentile (Kansas)
- 2020: 95th percentile (Buffalo)
- 2019: 60th percentile (Buffalo)
- 2018: 90th percentile (Buffalo)
- 2017: 80th percentile (Buffalo)
I like the over in Oregon-Penn State this week.
Pick: Oregon-Penn State over 52.5 points (-110 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
