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Super Bowl 59 is almost here, and the player props market is fully underway ahead of the big game.
The SEC is very well-represented in this year’s game with players like Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Jalen Carter and plenty more leading the way. Below you’ll find 3 props involving former players from SEC programs.
Not in a legal betting state? No problem! The picks below are also available on Underdog Fantasy! Underdog is live and legal in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, South Carolina and many more states!
Player prop picks for Super Bowl 59
For Super Bowl 59, here are 3 player props to consider:
Jalen Hurts over 36.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
It’s no secret that Jalen Hurts likes to run the ball. About 14% of all offensive snaps this season for the Eagles have resulted in a Hurts rushing attempt — either a scramble or designed run. Hurts has run the ball at a similar rate during the postseason. He averaged 42 rushing yards per game during the regular season and is at 40.7 so far during these playoffs.
Hurts is now facing a Chiefs defense that has not been great defending running quarterbacks this year. Kansas City allowed opposing quarterbacks to rush for 4.93 yards per carry during the regular season, which was the 11th-worst mark in the NFL. In the playoffs, both Josh Allen and CJ Stroud cleared their regular-season rushing averages in losses to Kansas City.
DeVonta Smith to score a touchdown (+250 at BetMGM)
DeVonta Smith has absolutely torched the Chiefs in his 3 previous games against them. He has at least 6 receptions and 99 yards in all 3 of those games. Those big performances have not translated into a touchdown yet, but he’s clearly getting open vs. this defense and Hurts is doing a great job of getting him the ball. I’m also not too worried about Smith showing up as a limited participant on Friday’s practice report, although it is worth noting.
Another reason to like this pick is that his teammate, AJ Brown, has much lower odds (+170) to score a touchdown in this game. That’s despite Brown and Smith having very similar target shares both overall and in the red zone this season. Both players also have the same number of receiving touchdowns (8) across the regular season and playoffs. They also have the exact same target share on plays inside the 10-yard line. I see little reason for the gap in price considering their red zone usage and I like Smith’s big-play ability in this spot more than Brown’s considering his history against the Chiefs.
Xavier Worthy over 5.5 receptions (+115 at BetMGM)
Xavier Worthy didn’t technically play in the SEC with Texas, but we’re including him here for the sake of the exercise. The Chiefs’ offense has evolved into one that often relies on short passing attempts. Kansas City ranked dead last in the NFL this season in air yards per target at 6.3, per Radar360. That number has risen slightly to 6.8 during 2 playoff games so far, but that’s still on the low end.
Worthy is known as a speedster and he’s often getting the ball behind or near the line of scrimmage and asked to make things happen. Per Pro Football Focus, Worthy has been targeted 75 times this year (including the playoffs) on routes that are either behind the line of scrimmage or no more than 9 yards down field. That’s 2nd on the team behind only Travis Kelce. Worthy also has an 83% catch rate on those throws.
Given Philadelphia’s apparent advantage up front with players like Jalen Carter on the D-line, it’s reasonable to expect KC’s passing offense to keep relying on these quick, short throws. Worthy has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games (including the playoffs) and I think he may get even more opportunity than usual as the Chiefs may be forced to increase their passing rate given Philly’s strong rush defense (1st in rushing defense EPA since Week 10).
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
