Ole Miss is nowhere near where it thought it would be after seven games. Auburn is in the same boat but in a much more positive note.
The Rebels fell out of the polls this week after a loss at LSU sent them below .500 at 3-4, a lowly 1-3 in the SEC. No. 15 Auburn is coming off a 53-point dismantling of Arkansas and all of a sudden finds itself in contention in the SEC West – and for that matter the College Football Playoff picture.
Here are three keys to Saturday’s showdown in Oxford, where the team expected to need this game in a Playoff run was Ole Miss but is now Auburn (5-2, 3-1).
1. What does Auburn’s ground game do?
This is the key. The Tigers went from preseason running back mess to the top of the SEC in rushing behind sophomore running backs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson. When Johnson got hurt at Mississippi State, he was the team’s leading rusher. He had 538 yards and 6 touchdowns on 105 carries (5.1 yards per carry). Enter Pettway, who in the last two games has rushed 66 times for 361 yards and 5 touchdowns. The 240-pounder is bowling over tacklers.
Having both back on Saturday is bad news for Ole Miss. The Rebels rank last in the SEC and 112th in the country in rushing defense. They are allowing nearly 227 yards per game and watched Leonard Fournette go for 284 last week. If Ole Miss’ defense can’t tighten those clamps, its quick-strike offense will be a plus for Auburn, leaving the Rebels on the field too much against a team averaging nearly 303 rushing yards per game.
2. Ole Miss needs to keep scoring.
The Rebels were held scoreless in the second half last week in Baton Rouge, the first scoreless half for them since last season. Ole Miss is second in the SEC in scoring offense, averaging 37 points per game behind the league’s top passing game.
You wouldn’t know that by watching a second half. In their four losses to Florida State, Alabama, Arkansas and LSU, those opponents have outscored the Rebels 94-35 in the second half. They found a way to blow three-touchdown leads against the Seminoles and Crimson Tide and didn’t score enough in the second half after being tied at halftime with the Razorbacks and Tigers.
3. Chad Kelly needs to go nuts.
Kelly has had a good season. He leads all SEC passers with 2,067 yards and is third in touchdowns (15). On Saturday, he needs to be great. The running game is bad – 149 yards per game ranks next to last in the conference.
The passing game leads the SEC with 305 yards per game. Kelly has to do more this week and each week after for that matter. And by more, that may mean (on some weeks, at least) 400-plus passing yards, 75 or more rushing yards, at least four touchdown passes. Oh, and no interceptions.
Kelly has talked the talk. Remember the 15-0 business from Media Days? He’s sort of walking the walk. Unfortunately for Kelly, the unexpected turn for his team is forcing him to walk his walk and everyone else’s.
