The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take their talents to Miami Gardens this weekend for a high-profile top-10 opening weekend tilt with Miami on Sunday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
The game has immense implications for both programs.
This matchup will be Notre Dame’s second contest at Hard Rock Stadium in its last 3 games. The Fighting Irish defeated Penn State 27-24 to win the Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal this past January. The Fighting Irish ultimately lost the national title game to Ohio State. For Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame, the game is an opportunity to emphasize that last season was no fluke, and the Fighting Irish have all the makings of a program capable of being a perennial contender in the NIL and Playoff era.
Snubbed from the Playoff after a 10-2 campaign last season, Miami and fourth-year head coach Mario Cristobal are looking for the program’s first win over a ranked opponent since 2023 and the program’s first win over a top 10 opponent since Mark Richt routed Notre Dame in 2017. In fact, Miami defeated more ranked opponents (2) in the final season under Manny Diaz than it has the entirety of the 3-plus years Cristobal has roamed the sidelines in Coral Gables. The Hurricanes are just 1-6 in games against ranked opposition under Cristobal, with the lone victory coming against No. 23 Texas A&M during what proved to be the final year of the Jimbo Fisher era in College Station. Another loss on a big stage will only supercharge the doubts about whether Cristobal, a marvelous recruiter, has the candle power and attention to detail needed to return a championship dividend on his tremendous talent acquisition efforts.
On the field, the game features no shortage of subplots.
Both teams start new quarterbacks. For Miami, No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Cam Ward, who elevated the play of everyone in the program, is gone. Once again, however, the Canes landed the best quarterback in the transfer portal, bringing in SEC champion Carson Beck of Georgia, who has over 7,500 yards passing and 52 touchdown passes in the past 2 seasons as the starter in Athens.
Notre Dame debuts CJ Carr, a highly recruited, but entirely unproven, redshirt freshman who played only a handful of snaps a season ago.
Advantage, Miami? Perhaps.
Here are 3 matchups that will define Miami and Notre Dame on Sunday evening:
Jeremiyah Love and the Notre Dame counter run game vs. Miami’s front 7
Despite a frustrating loss in the Pop Tarts Bowl, Miami’s much-maligned defense was actually quite stout against the run in 2024. The Hurricanes ranked 22nd in rushing defense and 20th in rushing success rate defense (the number of times a play is successful depends on yards gained given down and distance). Conference USA star David Blay will help, but the Canes still must replace the production of Simeon Barrow, C.J. Clark and Marley Cook, 3 key contributors inside a season ago. The Hurricanes’ new-look interior depth will be tested by a stout Notre Dame offensive line that returns over 1,500 snaps from a season ago but will be without starter Charles Jagusah, who broke his arm in July.
The battle up front will feature plenty of Notre Dame’s run game bread and butter: the counter.
The Fighting Irish bullied Georgia and wore Penn State out with these runs, and they run it out of various personnel groupings. In each concept, the guard pulls and kicks out, the backside tackle leads up, a tight end pursues the outside linebacker, and if the play is a handoff (they also like to run the quarterback on the counter), the handoff is frontside.
If the quarterback runs, they will occasionally move a receiver or tight end inside to occupy the alley linebacker, or put a running back in motion, which tends to pull the box linebacker and safety a bit wider, making it easier for the quarterback to attack an inside lane while also shortening the distance the running back has to go to block the alley backer.
Either concept is difficult to defend because the Fighting Irish block and execute so flawlessly.
Even if there is gap integrity and the Hurricanes manage to slow Jeremiyah Love, they’ll still need to tackle him. As Penn State learned a season ago on the same field they’ll play on this Sunday evening, that’s tough.
Love gained a preposterous 711 of his 1,125 yards last season after contact. In other words, a Miami defense that ranked 12th in the ACC in missed tackle rate (not great!) better wrap up or it will be a long evening for The U.
Carson Beck and TE Elija Lofton vs. the middle of the Notre Dame defense
Al Golden is off to the NFL, but new Notre Dame defensive coordinator Chris Ash is unlikely to depart from Golden’s core principles.
Notre Dame is going to trust its boundary corners to play man and strong safety Adon Shuler to flood and help on speedier slot receivers. A season ago, All-American Xavier Watts played single high concepts more than any free safety in the sport (27% of Notre Dame snaps!). That number will decrease with Jean Stroman and Tae Johnson playing deep, but Notre Dame isn’t going to shy away from using a boundary safety to funnel offenses inside.
Can Carson Beck, who was outstanding with tight ends at Georgia, showcase a quick rapport with ultra-talented Elija Lofton?
Lofton caught only 9 passes a season ago, but his freakish athleticism and speed has drawn some eye-opening comparisons at a program that has churned out elite tight ends for generations.
Christian Gray and Leonard Moore are 2 of the better cover corners in America. They should limit the damage done by Miami’s new wide receiver room.
But Lofton is a matchup problem, too fast for any of Notre Dame’s linebackers and 3 inches taller and 30 pounds bigger than any Notre Dame safety or nickel.
The middle of the field will be open throughout the evening on Sunday. Beck has proven he can find an elite tight end.
Lofton’s unproven, but this might be the biggest mismatch in the football game?
Miami’s power run game vs. Notre Dame’s smaller front
Notre Dame’s lone defensive weakness in 2024 was halting power run games.
James Franklin’s decision to throw at times in the second half, despite Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton gashing the smaller Fighting Irish front, may have cost Penn State the Orange Bowl. In the national title game, Quinshon Judkins and Will Howard controlled the clock and football game on the ground until eventually and reluctantly, Notre Dame cheated a safety, and the dam broke over the top.
The Fighting Irish are marvelous at linebacker, led by 5-star Jaylen Sneed and the steady Drayk Bowen, one of the best tacklers in the sport (94% tackle rate).
But Mario Cristobal’s recruiting prowess — and his coaching zone of genius — is up front. Francis Mauigoa leads a talented offensive line and the addition of TCU transfer James Brockermeyer, an outstanding center, makes the group even stronger. The left side is a bit more uncertain, but the bottom line is the group has 5-star recruits like Samson Okunlola on the bench. The Canes are big and nasty up front and might be able to push Notre Dame around come the second half in the heat and humidity. Plus, Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami’s best running back, is quick to hit the hole and needs little space to succeed.
Notre Dame believes it will be better on the defensive line in 2025. Senior Jason Onye is making his return from injury, adding experience, and Jared Dawson transferred in from Louisville after grading out as one of the nation’s best run stoppers in 2024 (84.5 run defense grade, per PFF).
Notre Dame’s defense has to keep the Fighting Irish in the game long enough for Carr to settle in and realize he’s capable.
That will start with run defense.
Prediction: Miami 16, Notre Dame 10
A low scoring struggle turns on a big Elija Lofton catch and score, and Miami’s run game ices the game in the fourth quarter as CJ Carr struggles in his first start. A huge win for Mario Cristobal puts The U firmly in the Playoff picture.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
