A year ago at this time, it seemed like Brent Venables was teetering toward the hot seat.
At that point, his résumé included a pair of 6-7 seasons sandwiched around a 10-3 campaign in OU’s final Big 12 season. Even the 10-3 season was underwhelming — OU lost to Kansas and fell to Oklahoma State in the final game of the Bedlam series.
Then came the 2025 season, which seems to have completely altered Venables’ trajectory in Norman. He made a great offensive coordinator hire in Ben Arbuckle and took back over as the defensive play-caller on that side of the ball.
OU improved enough both offensively and defensively to go from 6-7 to 10-2, clinching a berth in the College Football Playoff for the first time since Lincoln Riley’s departure.
The question now becomes: Where does Oklahoma go from here?
The best programs in the SEC are able to sustain CFP contention across multiple years. I’m talking about the Alabamas and the Georgias of the world. Texas was bordering on that tier before a disappointing season in 2025.
Then there’s the next tier of programs — the teams who are well-resourced, but have not been able to sustain ultimate success independent of circumstances. This is Florida, Auburn and LSU.
Putting those programs Tier 2 is not a slight to them. When they’re at their peak, they’re capable of winning — and have won — national championships.
I see Oklahoma as part of that tier as well, but it hasn’t quite earned its place in the SEC. The Sooners haven’t won the national championship since 2000 and, despite a run of CFP appearances in the last decade, haven’t played for the title since 2008.
If Oklahoma can’t sustain 2025’s success, it may ultimately land in a Tier 3 that includes Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Mizzou — programs who have rattled off 10-win seasons in recent years but have never been perennial title contenders.
Despite a very strong 2025 season, I think Oklahoma is on tenuous footing. Being a Tier 1 or Tier 2 SEC program is in reach, but there’s work to be done. That starts with a critically important 2026 season for the Sooners.
Oklahoma win total analysis
This piece is part of a series we’re running this offseason at Saturday Down South where we’ll look at regular-season win totals for all 16 SEC teams. We’ve previously analyzed Alabama, Georgia and LSU, Auburn, Kentucky and Ole Miss. Oklahoma is up now.
Oklahoma regular season win total
Here’s a look at the current regular-season win total odds on BetMGM:
- Over 7.5 wins (-145)
- Under 7.5 wins (+115)
Oklahoma fans may wince at this win total given that the Sooners went 10-2 last regular season and return key players like John Mateer and Isaiah Sategna. However, a tough schedule and inconsistent offensive results from last season have Vegas still relatively lukewarm on Venables’ program.
Still, Vegas is expecting 8+ wins to be more likely than 7 or fewer. At -145, the implied probability of OU getting to at least 8 victories is 59.18%.
Over on Kalshi, Oklahoma is trading at 37% to make the College Football Playoff.
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Oklahoma 2026 schedule
Here’s what the Oklahoma schedule looks like for this fall:
- Sept. 5: vs. UTEP
- Sept. 12: at Michigan
- Sept. 19: vs. New Mexico
- Sept. 26: at Georgia
- Oct. 3: OFF
- Oct. 10: vs. Texas (Dallas)
- Oct. 17: vs. Kentucky
- Oct. 24: at Mississippi State
- Oct. 31: vs. South Carolina
- Nov. 7: at Florida
- Nov. 14: vs. Ole Miss
- Nov. 21: vs. Texas A&M
- Nov. 28: at Missouri
The first 6 weeks of this schedule include 3 bonafide CFP contenders, all away from home. It’s possible the Sooners have 3 losses before they even get to mid-October after facing Michigan, Georgia and Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
The schedule eases up from there with games against Kentucky, Mississippi State and South Carolina. That’s not to say those are guaranteed wins for the Sooners, but OU figures to be a meaningful favorite in all 3 of those contests.
Things toughen up again, though, after Halloween with a road trip to Gainesville before facing a couple more CFP hopefuls in Ole Miss and Texas A&M in Norman. Thanksgiving weekend ends with a trip to Columbia to round out the regular season.
Oklahoma’s schedule has a good mix of national title contenders, CFP hopefuls and SEC doormats. The games against the middle-tier of opponents will likely determine whether or not OU goes over this total.
My opinion — I like the Sooners to win 8+ games against this schedule. Here are 3 reasons why:
Tons of returning production on offense
Although Oklahoma’s offense took a step forward last fall from what it was in 2024, the Sooners still weren’t exactly good. They finished 97th in yards per play and Mateer finished 14th among 15 qualified quarterbacks in passer efficiency rating during conference play.
Still, this is a unit I’m optimistic about heading into 2025. Why? Continuity.
On the offensive side of the ball, Oklahoma returns…
- Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle
- Quarterback John Mateer
- No. 1 rusher Tory Blaylock
- No. 2 rusher Xavier Robinson
- No. 1 receiver Isaiah Sategna
- Left tackle Michael Fasusi
- Left guard Eddy Pierre-Louis
- Center Jake Maikkula
- Right guard/tackle Ryan Fodje
In the few spots where Oklahoma had departures, it landed excellent transfer options. Former Texas receiver Parker Livingstone and ex-Virginia receiver Trell Harris were brought in to shore up that room.
On the offensive line, OU signed former Arkansas starter E’Marion Harris to play right tackle. At tight end, a position that has plagued the Sooners for years, they signed a trio of transfers, led by former Florida starter Hayden Hansen and former Colorado State star Rocky Beers.
I think all the pieces are there for Oklahoma to have an offense that ranks in the top half of the SEC for the first time since the Sooners joined the league.
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Brent Venables has an elite defense … again
Here’s one thing I know about Oklahoma — its defense is going to be elite this season. That’s been the one constant over the last few seasons, even as the offense has endured massive peaks and valleys.
In 2025, Oklahoma defense let up just 4.28 yards per play. That not only led the SEC, it was the best mark for any individual SEC defense since Georgia in 2021.
From that unit, Oklahoma returns a staggering amount of talent. Although top edge rusher R Mason Thomas and defensive tackle Gracen Holten are now in the NFL, the Sooners bring back experience and high-level pedigree across the entire defensive line.
The linebacker room will once again feature Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke and Reggie Powers. The Bowen brothers are back in the secondary, as is freshman All-American cornerback Courtland Guillory and safety Michael Boganowski.
The only significant question mark will be at edge rusher given Thomas’s impact over the past 2 seasons. But assuming Oklahoma can manufacture some pressure off the edge, it will once again have an elite defense this fall.
Key matchups seem favorable for Oklahoma
You don’t have to look hard to find potential losses on this schedule for the Sooners. OU will be a huge underdog to Texas and Georgia. Games against Michigan, Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri figure to be coin flips at best. Any of those games could theoretically be losses for Oklahoma.
But considering Oklahoma’s defense-first profile, not many of those games seem particularly frightening. Oklahoma went 10-2 last season because it largely kept mediocre offenses in-check and repeatedly forced turnovers or picked up big plays (usually to Sategna) on offense.
Michigan’s passing attack shouldn’t scare anyone after seeing Bryce Underwood as a freshman. Florida will have a quarterback with very little experience. Ole Miss has an entirely new offensive coaching staff. Marcel Reed is a good quarterback, but he’s not a great passer — you need to be the latter when you face Venables. Mizzou’s passing offense should be improved this season with Austin Simmons, but he struggled early on last season before getting hurt.
Last season, the average passer efficiency rating at the FBS level was 135.5. Oklahoma gave up a worse figure than that just 3 times, going 1-2 in those games. When OU held opponents to a below-average passing efficiency game, it went 10-1 and often won by double digits despite its putrid offense.
When your defense is as good as Oklahoma’s is, the bar to win is high. Although this is a tough schedule on paper, I’m not sure it’s full of teams who are stylistically built to beat a Venables defense through the air. That’s the pattern we saw play out last season and I’d expect similar results in 2026.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
