All college football seasons in Tuscaloosa are important, but the 2026 season figures to be especially pivotal.
While Kalen DeBoer has excellent job security entering the year after signing a new long-term contract extension this spring, he’s still very much on trial in the court of public opinion among Alabama fans.
And he’s not necessarily winning the argument so far relative to their lofty expectations. A CFP-less debut season was followed up by a quarterfinal appearance in 2025, which is a marked improvement over Year 1. But Alabama was blown out by Indiana in its season-ending loss, further exposing the warts that plagued the Tide throughout the year.
Alabama’s offense was middling through the air and abysmal on the ground. Defensively, they were solid but a far cry from the heights of the Nick Saban era — a constant point of comparison, fair or not.
Entering Year 3 for DeBoer, there’s plenty of room for improvement.
Alabama regular season win total analysis
This story is part of a series we’re running this offseason at Saturday Down South where we’ll look at regular-season win totals for all 16 SEC teams. Up first is Alabama.
Alabama’s regular-season win total
First, let’s look at the odds. Here are the odds on FanDuel as of publication:
- Over 8.5 wins (-118)
- Under 8.5 wins (-104)
The -118 odds carry an implied probability of 54.13%, meaning the market has Alabama as slightly more likely to go “over” the win total of 8.5 than “under” (-104 translates to 50.98%).
Alabama win total performance history
Does Alabama tend to over-perform or under-perform relative to expectations? Here’s what history says:
- 2025 win total: 9.5 | 2025 actual wins: 10 | Verdict: OVER
- 2024 win total: 9.5 | 2024 actual wins: 9 | Verdict: UNDER
- 2023 win total: 10 | 2023 actual wins: 11 | Verdict: OVER
- 2022 win total: 11.5 | 2022 actual wins: 10 | Verdict: UNDER
- 2021 win total: 11.5 | 2021 actual wins: 11 | Verdict: UNDER
There’s not a major trend there, but Alabama’s under is 3-2 over the past 5 seasons — albeit with 2 of those totals set at a lofty 11.5 wins.
At 8.5 wins, the betting markets have significantly lowered their expectations for this Alabama program. The schedule — which will include 9 conference games for the first time ever — is a big reason why.
Alabama’s 2026 schedule
Here’s a look at the Tide’s upcoming campaign:
- Sept. 5: vs. East Carolina
- Sept. 12: at Kentucky
- Sept. 19: vs. Florida State
- Sept. 26: vs. South Carolina
- Oct. 3: at Mississippi State
- Oct. 10: vs. Georgia
- Oct. 17: at Tennessee
- Oct. 24: vs. Texas A&M
- Oct. 31: OFF
- Nov. 7: at LSU
- Nov. 14: at Vanderbilt
- Nov. 21: vs. Chattanooga
- Nov. 28: vs. Auburn
The most-challenging games appear to be congested in the middle of the schedule with a stretch that includes Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU all coming between Oct. 10 and Nov. 7. Each of those 4 teams has legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations in 2026.
Aside from that stretch, Alabama should be favored — if not heavily so — in its other 8 games.
My pick — I’m comfortable laying the -118 juice on the “over” for Alabama’s win total. Here are 3 reasons why:
I trust Alabama will have good quarterback play
Anytime you have some uncertainty at the quarterback position, that’s going to be priced into the market for a regular season win total. But in this case, I have no reason to believe Alabama is going to struggle at that position given its options and its offensive coaching staff.
Whoever wins the job between Austin Mack and Keelon Russell is likely to be productive. Alabama was top 5 in the SEC in passer efficiency rating in each of the past 2 seasons with Ty Simpson and Jalen Milroe under center. Going back to Kalen DeBoer’s time at Washington and Fresno State, his quarterbacks have always ranked in the top 5 in that metric for their respective conferences.
Alabama has enough talent everywhere else that if it gets efficient production from a first-year starting quarterback, it should be able to cruise to 9+ wins.
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Alabama is among the favorites to win the SEC in 2026 on Kalshi:
I like what Alabama has coming back on defense
Alabama’s offense will have a lot of new faces this year but the defense has plenty of continuity. ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s model shows the Tide rank 32nd in defensive returning production for 2026.
Alabama returns 4 starting defensive backs in 2026, so it’s reasonable to expect some improvements from that group this fall. Domani Jackson is the lone key piece of that secondary that moved on to the NFL.
At linebacker, Alabama does lose Justin Jefferson and Deontae Lawson. Finding adequate replacements at those positions will be crucial for Alabama’s defensive success in 2026. QB Reese and Cayden Jones are 2 names to know coming out of spring.
The defensive front also lost a couple of key players in Tim Keenan and LT Overton. But London Simmons and Jah-Marien Latham are back and Alabama added a couple of transfers in Devan Thompkins and Kedrick Bingley-Jones. The Tide should be stout up front once again.
Particularly with an elite secondary, Alabama should be able to put together a top-25 defense — at minimum — in 2026. Run defense could be an issue given the losses in the front 7, but I trust Kane Wommack and his staff to figure that out over the course of the year.
The schedule sets up in ideal fashion
Alabama’s schedule can be easily divided into 3 parts. First is a 5-game stretch that includes 3 of the SEC’s worst teams plus East Carolina and Florida State. That’s a soft start to the season, which is optimal for the Crimson Tide as they will begin the year with an inexperienced quarterback (whether it’s Mack or Russell).
After that, Alabama enters the gauntlet. Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, open date, at LSU. This is where the Tide will really be tested. This will be a grind, but DeBoer has a strong track record in big games — especially against Georgia — and 2 of these contests will be at home. Going to Knoxville will be tough, but Alabama should have the QB advantage in that matchup. We don’t know much about how LSU will look with a transfer-heavy roster in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin, either.
Then, to close out the season, Alabama plays at Vanderbilt before returning to Tuscaloosa to face Chattanooga and Auburn. That’s a manageable home stretch.
I see 8 games on this schedule where I expect Alabama will be a significant favorite. If the Tide go 7-1 in those contests, they only need to go 2-2 in their toss-up games to clear this number. I think it’s more than reasonable to expect that will happen — especially since Russell or Mack will have 5 FBS starts before the schedule toughens up.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
