In a sport that’s filled to the brim with fans and boosters who have lofty — to put it kindly — expectations, LSU stands apart.
Not because its expectations are unreasonable or unrealistic, but because no program holds itself to a higher standard with its actions than the Bayou Bengals. No matter the exorbitant cost.
Just look at the last few months. Brian Kelly won 29 games in his first 3 years at the helm and was promptly fired after a 5-3 start to his 4th campaign in Baton Rouge. Despite some initial doubts over the cost of his buyout and an inevitable replacement, LSU ultimately found the money to still have a near-perfect offseason.
To recap:
- LSU paid the highest buyout for a coach in college football history for Brian Kelly’s walking papers
- LSU hired the No. 1 head coach on the market in Lane Kiffin
- LSU signed the No. 1 (according to most experts) quarterback in the 2026 transfer cycle in Sam Leavitt
- LSU signed the No. 1 offensive tackle in Jordan Seaton away from Colorado
- LSU signed 40 other transfers, including proven players such as Eugene Wilson, Winnie Watkins, Princewill Umanmielen, TJ Dottery, Devin Harper and Jordan Ross, among others.
- LSU inked the No. 1 overall transfer portal class for this offseason, per the 247Sports composite rankings
- LSU landed the No. 1 defensive line recruit in the class of 2026 in Lamar Brown
Kiffin may be the talk of the college football world now and is on the shortlist for face of the sport. But if he doesn’t win big — and quickly — his leash will be just as short as his successor’s.
LSU regular-season win total analysis
This piece is part of a series we’re running this offseason at Saturday Down South where we’ll look at regular-season win totals for all 16 SEC teams. We’ve previously covered Alabama and Georgia. Up next is LSU.
LSU regular-season win total
The first order of business is to break down LSU’s current win total in the betting markets. Here are LSU’s win total odds via BetMGM:
- Over 8.5 wins (-110)
- Under 8.5 wins (-118)
Oddsmakers have LSU slightly more likely to go 8-4 than 9-3, but it seems there’s been relatively balanced action in this market since it was posted earlier this offseason. LSU is also +155 to make the College Football Playoff at BetMGM.
LSU’s 2026 schedule
Here’s the schedule that LSU will see this fall:
- Sept. 5: vs. Clemson
- Sept. 12: vs. Louisiana Tech
- Sept. 19: at Ole Miss
- Sept. 26: vs. Texas A&M
- Oct. 3: vs. McNeese
- Oct. 10: at Kentucky
- Oct. 17: vs. Mississippi State
- Oct. 24: at Auburn
- Oct. 31: OFF
- Nov. 7: vs. Alabama
- Nov. 14: vs. Texas
- Nov. 21: at Tennessee
- Nov. 28: at Arkansas
LSU’s nonconference slate is headlined by a home game against Clemson to open the season. Beyond that Week 1 affair, LSU will face 9 SEC opponents for the first time in 2026.
This schedule, at least on paper, looks like one of the tougher assignments in the SEC this season. Among realistic CFP hopefuls, The Tigers face Ole Miss and Tennessee on the road but get to play Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas at Tiger Stadium.
Including the Clemson matchup, that’s 6 games against teams who could be consensus top-25 teams at the end of the year. Road trips to Kentucky and Auburn could be more daunting than usual this season, too.
My prediction: LSU goes “under” 8.5 wins in Kiffin’s first season in charge. Here are 3 reasons why:
LSU’s schedule is daunting
I touched on it a bit already, but this is a really brutal schedule. To put things in perspective, LSU will face 4 teams whose CFP odds on Kalshi are at least 40%. That doesn’t include Clemson or Tennessee, who will also have a chance to make the Playoff if they get good quarterback play.
Even with a star-studded transfer class, this schedule has a chance to eat a good-to-great team alive. There’s no multi-week reprieve. Almost every game on the schedule will be against a top-40ish opponent or a road game.
There are 5 SEC teams with a win total of 8 or higher. LSU is one of them. The Tigers play 3 of the other 4, missing only Georgia.
There are simply too many places for LSU to slip up, especially considering the lack of continuity the Tigers will have this season. Given the schedule, I think 8-4 or worse is a meaningfully more likely outcome than 9-3 or higher.
It’s difficult to trust Lane Kiffin in Year 1
I think Kiffin is a great coach. But I see too many moving pieces, too many coaching changes, too many variables. Taking upwards of 40 transfers, many of whom will be counted on to start this season, introduces a ton of variance into LSU’s possible range of outcomes.
It’s worth noting that Kiffin hasn’t always gotten off to great starts. He went 8-5 in Year 1 at USC before winning 10 games the following season. Similarly, Kiffin went 5-5 in his first season at Ole Miss before rebounding with a 10-3 campaign.
In addition to the tough games on LSU’s schedule, the Tigers could be vulnerable even as significant favorites. In 2024 with another portal-heavy team, Kiffin’s Ole Miss program lost 3 games outright as favorites. They fixed that issue last season, but a 6-2 record in 1-score games suggests they had some good fortune along the way.
There are questions about Sam Leavitt
I think it’s fair to question what happened with Leavitt during the 2025 season. For one, Leavitt suffered a serious foot injury and underwent season-ending surgery in October. That surgery also limited what Leavitt could do during the spring, although he’s expected to be full-go for fall camp.
Even before the injury, Leavitt was underwhelming on the field. Despite having an elite college wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson, Leavitt’s passer efficiency rating plummeted below 130 during his 7 games of action. His yards per attempt dropped from 8.2 to 6.8.
Lastly, there were rumors throughout the season about Leavitt’s character and locker room presence. CBS Sports’ Chris Hummer reported that reviews from Arizona State coaches were “mixed” following his exit. Hummer’s report also notes that Leavitt never formally announced he was leaving Arizona State prior to entering the portal — a confusing and unusual choice. Jack McCarthy of The State Press also noted that Leavitt chose to skip Arizona State’s annual team banquet in December, adding to the tension surrounding his exit.
Leavitt has the talent to be among the best quarterbacks in the country this season, but I think the injury concerns — especially for a mobile quarterback — and character questions give him and LSU’s offense a pretty low floor as well.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
