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The Final Four gets underway on Saturday evening with Auburn taking on Florida in an all-SEC semifinal.
These teams met once during the regular season, with the Gators winning 90-81 on the road. But this time, a spot in the National Championship Game is on the line and this is expected to be a very close game. Per BetMGM, the betting line currently sits at Florida -2.5.
This story will aim to identify 3 key areas that will decide the outcome of what figures to be a potential instant-classic in San Antonio. We’ll dive into some strengths and weaknesses for both teams heading into this matchup.
Of course, it goes without saying that 3-point percentage will have a huge impact on who wins this game. Teams who won the 3-point percentage battle during the NCAA Tournament have won 73.4% of the time in 2024-25. Below, you’ll find analysis on some other battleground areas that Auburn and Florida will be looking to control in this contest.
Auburn vs. Florida: 3 stats that will decide the outcome
Here’s what to look out for with Auburn’s Final Four clash against Florida:
Can Florida get to the foul line?
Auburn doesn’t have many weaknesses, but defensive foul rate is certainly one of them. The Tigers rank 302nd nationally in that category for the full season. They’ve been a little bit better lately — their defensive foul rate has been just over 30% during the NCAA Tournament compared to 38% for the full year.
But this is still a weakness Florida can target to get some extra points on the margins. The Gators have a 50.7% offensive free throw rate during the NCAA Tournament. That essentially means that for every 100 field goal attempts Florida has since the start of March Madness, it’s also attempting 50.7 free throws. That’s a massive number — and it leads all NCAA Tournament teams who played more than 1 game.
Walter Clayton Jr. specifically is a huge reason for Florida’s impressive FT volume. After averaging under 4 free throw attempts during the regular season, the star guard has a whopping 35 shots at the stripe so far this tournament. That’s nearly 9 FTA per game. Will Richard, Alijah Martin, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh have each all had high FTA games as well, but Clayton is the primary driver in this area.
Of the 4 factors, free throw rate is generally the least-important when it comes to determining the outcome of a basketball game. But in this case, there’s such a clear advantage for the Gators on one side of the floor that it could have a bigger impact than usual.
Who wins the battle of the boards?
Rebounding has been particularly important for Auburn this year. When the Tigers post a defensive rebounding rate of at least 70%, they’re 21-1 this season. The only loss in that span was to Alabama in overtime. That means Auburn is 14-4 when it doesn’t meet that threshold. That’s not a terrible record by any means, but it does represent a pretty big drop-off in win percentage.
Rebounding differential has been pretty crucial to Auburn’s success overall this season. In 14 games this season where the Tigers either lost or won by 6 points or fewer, they posted a combined rebounding differential of -2. In all other games, Auburn won the rebounding battle by 6.6 on average.
When these teams met during the regular season, Florida won 90-81 on the Plains. The rebounding battle ended up equal at 40-40. Florida won the game because it shot much better from 3-point range. However, Auburn was a slightly better 3-point shooting team this season (albeit on lesser volume). If the 3-point battle ends up close to equal in the rematch, rebounding will have an outsized impact on who wins this game.
Florida’s interior scoring vs. Auburn’s interior defense
Florida has had 2 close calls in this NCAA Tournament against UConn and Texas Tech. In both instances, the Gators shot under 50% on 2-point field goal attempts. That proved to be a near-fatal blow for Florida’s offense, but the Gators were able to survive thanks to some clutch 3-point shot-making in both games.
Scoring in the interior was a huge part of Florida’s success in 2024-25. The Gators finished 2nd in the SEC with a 2-point field goal percentage north of 55%. When Florida is at its best, the Gators are dominant rim-finishers. Per CBB Analytics, Florida made north of 71% of its rim attempts during the month of March — over 9% above the Division I average.
Defensively for Auburn, opponent 2-point field goal percentage has been a huge indicator of whether or not the Tigers win. According to EvanMiya.com, Auburn is 19-0 this season when it holds its opponents to under 46.8% from 2. The record slips to 13-5 with an average margin-of-victory of just over 6 points when the Tigers don’t meet that threshold.
Tipoff is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday night on CBS.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
