We spent weeks complaining about who should have and who should not have made the College Football Playoff.
“James Madison didn’t belong.”
“Tulane didn’t belong.”
“Notre Dame should have been in.”
“Texas should have gotten in.”
But all that talking eventually amounted to nothing. Whoever got the 12 seed wasn’t going to beat Oregon, and it certainly wasn’t going to take down Indiana. A pair of flawed SEC teams in the 8-9 matchup were just fodder for the IU buzzsaw. Replace one of the 2 with a team like Notre Dame or Texas, and does Indiana’s dream season end in the Rose Bowl? Not likely.
We got a surprise participant in Monday night’s national championship game — Miami. Few expected the Hurricanes to make the CFP, but they spent the first 7 weeks of the season inside the AP Top 5 so was it really a surprise to see them advance to the national title?
Maybe folks didn’t expect Indiana to bulldoze Alabama and Oregon the way it did, but the Big Ten champs entered the tournament with the second-best odds to win it all, so their success wasn’t a surprise either.
With a 12-team Playoff, everyone wants to make sure the “right” teams get selected. The fact of the matter is that the last couple of seeds rarely matter. Those teams aren’t winning national championships. Ohio State was an 8-seed in 2024 because of a format quirk that was quickly changed. But we knew all year long the Buckeyes were one of the best teams in the country.
We knew all year that Indiana was one of the best teams in the country.
We usually know before the Playoff begins that there are only 5 or 6 teams that can actually win the thing. That’s because there have only been 5 or 6 teams capable of actually winning a national championship every year for a long time.
Maybe that changes as talent continues to smooth out. But talent smoothed out this season, and yet the last 2 Big Ten champions met in the Peach Bowl for a spot in the title game, while the ACC’s best team over the last 2 years played the SEC’s winningest team over the last 2 years in the Fiesta Bowl for the other title spot.
Some things just don’t change.
With that, below are the 5 programs that I believe can legitimately win a national championship in 2026. They are presented in no particular order.
Indiana Hoosiers
Any list like this must include Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers, who have arguably put together one of the sport’s top transfer classes while simultaneously taking their current squad to the doorstep of history. Will the 2025 version of Indiana be Cignetti’s best team? It’s possible. The coalescence on this roster is hard to quantify, but it has undoubtedly played a huge role in getting IU to where it is. That being said, Indiana’s success in Cignetti’s first 2 years has parlayed into brand power on the recruiting trail.
Indiana’s transfer haul includes commitments from Wisconsin’s best offensive lineman (Joe Brunner), Michigan State’s best offensive player (wideout Nick Marsh), Boston College’s best offensive player (running back Turbo Richard), Kansas State’s best defensive player (Tobi Osunsanmi), and TCU’s best player (quarterback Josh Hoover).
When Hoover jumped in the portal, he looked like the next Cignetti quarterback. Kurtis Rourke walked so Fernando Mendoza could run so Hoover could… soar? We’ll see. Hoover threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns this season, which came as a follow-up to last year’s 3,949-yard, 27-touchdown campaign. Cignetti got the best quarterback to hit the portal, signaling that Indiana isn’t bargain bin shopping while hoping for development, but rather that IU is filling holes with the best available options.
Cignetti has proven his ability to identify talent, develop that talent, make the pieces all fit on gameday, and outclass other coaches when necessary. The Hoosiers just pummel people. In 28 games under Cignetti, they have a plus-28.8 PPG scoring margin. Twenty-two of the 26 wins have come by at least 10 points, and their only loss by more than 10 points under Cignetti came on the road to an Ohio State team that eventually won a national championship.
IU has ranked fourth nationally in consecutive seasons in Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA-per-play metric.
The 2026 schedule is also favorable. The nonconference features a post-Eric Morris North Texas program, Western Kentucky, and Howard. Ohio State and USC both play IU in Bloomington. Michigan looks like the most daunting road game.
IU isn’t going anywhere.
Ohio State Buckeyes
That net, per-play metric I referenced above? Ohio State led the nation in that mark during the 2024 campaign, and it did so again in 2025. I still haven’t quite figured out how Ohio State lost the Cotton Bowl by 10 points. The Buckeyes had a better explosive play rate, a positive net success rate, and won the yards-per-play battle against Miami. It came down to a 72-yard pick-6 thrown by Julian Sayin in the second quarter.
Sayin was a Heisman Trophy finalist in his first year as a full-time starter. I thought Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss should have gotten Sayin’s seat in New York City, but that’s a conversation for another day. Sayin piloted the Big Ten runner-up wonderfully, given the context.
Ohio State’s quarterback is coming back in 2026, its top running back is coming back, and its top receiver is coming back. All should be better, as none of them are even college seniors yet. The Buckeyes have to replace playmakers on defense, but they always have to replace playmakers on defense and they manage just fine. The Matt Patricia experiment worked beautifully. But even if the defense isn’t a boa constrictor in Year 2 under Patricia’s watch, a step forward from the offense would make everything a wash in the aggregate.
The Buckeyes returned to the Big Ten Championship Game this past fall, their first appearance at Lucas Oil Stadium since 2020. But the lack of Big Ten titles hasn’t impacted the Buckeyes in the CFP. They have made appearances in both 12-team fields and made it to the 2022 Playoff as a 4-seed.
Ohio State faces Texas, Indiana, Iowa, and USC all on the road next season. It also plays Michigan and Oregon at home. A 3-loss regular season is absolutely possible, but such a record wouldn’t be disqualifying for the Playoff. Put it this way: The Buckeyes have more potential landmines on their schedule than Indiana, but given the brand, they probably have more margin for error. Plus, a battle-tested Sayin would be a better Sayin.
LSU Tigers
I will buy the first version of the Lane Kiffin-coached Tigers. Though the way he left Ole Miss was shockingly problematic, that doesn’t change how we should feel about Kiffin from an Xs and Os standpoint or a roster-building standpoint.
Kiffin built one of the best teams in the country in 2024. I have repeatedly written that the Jaxson Dart-led Rebels were one of the best teams in football and deserving of a Playoff spot. They tied for fourth in adjusted net EPA per play in 2024. The 4 CFP semifinalists were all ranked in the top 7. It was not a surprise to see the Chambliss-led Rebels actually earn a Playoff spot in 2025, though they were statistically a step below the previous team.
Now at LSU, Kiffin is once again dominating the transfer market and signing big-name players. I love his quarterback, former Arizona State starter Sam Leavitt. Heading into 2025, Leavitt was a candidate to make a leap. That leap didn’t really happen, but Leavitt also got hurt, and that derailed his campaign. If he can excel in Kiffin’s system — which isn’t hard to do — LSU can play with anyone.
Retaining Blake Baker is huge. That helped LSU hold on to most of its elite defensive pieces, including Whit Weeks and DJ Pickett. That unit was really good in 2025, when it ranked ninth nationally in adjusted EPA per play allowed. A broken offense dragged the team down. It feels like almost a given that Kiffin will fix that side of the ball.
“Fix” will probably be relative. The Tigers ranked 107th in adjusted offensive EPA per play. Jumping into the top half of the FBS would qualify as “fixing,” but it wouldn’t necessarily make LSU a national title contender. A top-25 offense would, though, and Kiffin has had one of those in each of the last 3 seasons.
Kiffin is the mastermind behind a CFP semifinal run in 2025. Pete Golding gets his flowers for rising to the moment, but Kiffin doesn’t get written out of the story altogether because he upset certain people on his way out the door. I have bought into his Ole Miss teams for each of the last 2 years; with more resources and one of the best home atmospheres in football, it would be foolish to jump off the Lane Train now.
Texas Longhorns
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian had the worst rushing attack of his career in 2025. He swapped out the pieces and brought in 2 home run-hitting running backs alongside one of the best offensive tackles to hit the market. Raleek Brown, the ASU transfer tailback, is a dynamite addition to Sarkisian’s system. Hollywood Smothers, the NC State transfer, forms a terrific 1-2 punch in the Texas backfield. Those 2 combined to produce 2,080 yards at 6 yards a carry in 2025.
Those guys have to stay healthy. The line has to be better at grading a path for them. But if the run game is better, quarterback Arch Manning can flourish.
He was strong to end the season. After the loss to Georgia, Manning threw 7 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions, added 4 rushing scores, and took just 2 sacks in his final 3 games. He had a QBR of 91 or better in all 3, and he only had 1 turnover-worthy play. This offseason, he gets another year to prepare as the starter, and he gets to build chemistry with Auburn transfer receiver Cam Coleman — one of the best wide receivers in the sport.
Assuming an improved run game, a Manning-led offense could be one of the best in the sport. Could be. Texas can put together an elite offense that produces a deep CFP run without Manning winning the Heisman. We don’t need to play that game again. (Someone tell Finebaum.)
Texas reached the CFP semifinals in 2023 and 2024. After missing the field entirely in 2025, Sarkisian has been aggressive with his decisions. Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and spent big bucks in the transfer portal. At every spot, Texas filled a major hole with a star. That includes the DC spot, which Sarkisian filled with Will Muschamp.
Oregon Ducks
Since the start of the 2023 season, no team has more wins than Oregon, which has gone 38-5. No team has a better win percentage, either.
Each year, the Ducks have had elite-level quarterback play, a collection of playmakers, and a defense that works around its weaknesses well. Head coach Dan Lanning had to replace both of his coordinators this offseason, with Will Stein taking the head coaching job at Kentucky and Tosh Lupoi taking the Cal gig, but he promoted from within to fill their roles and that should help out a young roster that has tons of space left to grow.
I am specifically excited to see what the Ducks can do on defense without Lupoi. They have had issues (run defense) on that side of the ball for several years, but enough success to where Lanning couldn’t justify drastic moves. Do-everything safety Koi Perich is also coming over from Minnesota to give the Ducks another star at the back of their defense.
At the time of publication, the Ducks have only taken 12 transfers, so the 2-deep next season will be much more reliant on the top-10 high school classes they have signed over the last few years. That could lead to growing pains, or it could be much ado about nothing. Those players have had time to grow and get their feet wet.
Oregon also returns its leading passer — Dante Moore, who turned down a likely No. 2 selection in the 2026 NFL Draft to return to Eugene — as well as 2 of the brightest young tailbacks in the sport (Jordon Davison, Dierre Hill Jr.) and 2 rising receivers (Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan). If Evan Stewart, who missed all of 2025 with an injury, returns to form, Oregon will have one of the best collections of skill talent anywhere in the country.
Just missed the cut
- Notre Dame
- Texas Tech
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
