It’s time for Week 10 of the college football season.
Last week’s upset picks went 2-3 and took a small loss. Kansas State (+130) and Wake Forest (+155) both won outright but Purdue, New Mexico State and Colorado State all lost. The Boilermakers and Aggies were close, but no cigar.
Upset picks for Week 10
Here are 5 upset picks for this week:
Kansas State over Texas Tech
Kansas State is rolling right now. The Wildcats completely destroyed rival Kansas in Lawrence on Saturday, 42-17. It was no fluke, either. K-State out-gained the Jayhawks on a yards-per-play basis to the tune of 7 to 3.2. That’s a massive gap in efficiency. Meanwhile, Texas Tech lost its backup quarterback for the season this past weekend and its starter, Behren Morton, is almost always dealing with some sort of ailment. He hasn’t played since Oct. 11. I think there’s value in backing the Wildcats at home.
Pick: Kansas State +245 on DraftKings
Florida over Georgia
This will be Florida’s first game since firing Billy Napier. I think the Gators come out fired up for this one against their biggest rival. Florida is a good team that just made too many mistakes early in the season. It now faces a Georgia squad that has been prone to slow starts so far this year. I’m not overly impressed with the Bulldogs’ statistical profile — they rank 32nd in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric. I think a focused Florida team can give Georgia a real game.
Pick: Florida +235 on bet365
Mississippi State over Arkansas
This is a matchup of SEC teams who are winless in conference play. Both Mississippi State and Arkansas have been very competitive this season, but have been unable to get the job done to this point in the year. That changes for one of these teams on Saturday — I think it’ll be State. Arkansas squandered a massive opportunity against Auburn this past weekend and I wonder if the Razorbacks will be able to get up off the mat again. We’ve already seen them quit once — during their blowout loss to Notre Dame in September. Bobby Petrino took over for Sam Pittman the next week and Arkansas has responded with more competitive games. But this Mississippi State team has been impressive in losses to Tennessee, Florida and Texas. I think this is the breakthrough for Jeff Lebby and Co.
Pick: Mississippi State +170 on BetMGM
Wake Forest over Florida State
Longtime readers of this column will know I love picking Jake Dickert as an underdog. I’m 2-0 this season when taking Wake to pull off the money line upset, including last week against SMU. What a surprise it is to see the Demon Deacons priced north of +200 against a Florida State team that has exactly 1 ACC victory since the start of last season. FSU is coming off of a bye, but I don’t think that’s a good thing in this case. There’s a high probability the Noles are finishing out the season with a lame-duck coaching staff. Losing to Stanford a couple of weeks ago was rock-bottom — I’d guess coaches and players spent more time thinking about where they’re going to be next year than they did game-planning for Wake Forest. Meanwhile, anytime a program like Wake Forest can pick up a road win over Florida State is a big deal. I think Wake will have this one circled.
Pick: Wake Forest +275 on DraftKings
Hawaii over San Jose State
I think the wrong team is favored here, especially with Hawaii being at home for this matchup. The Warriors like to pass the ball and San Jose State’s secondary has been pretty bad this season. Additionally, Hawaii’s main weakness is its rushing defense but the Spartans rarely run the ball. Both of these teams are in the top 3 nationally in pass play rate, but I trust Hawaii’s secondary to get more stops at home this week.
Pick: Hawaii +110 on Caesars
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
