It’s time for Week 9 of the 2025 college football campaign.
As always, this piece will seek to predict 5 upsets while providing you with the best-in-market betting odds from a variety of the best sports betting apps. Last week was a big success, as UConn (+105), BYU (+145) and Georgia Tech (+105) all cashed for a total profit of 1.87 units.
Upset predictions Week 9
Here are 5 upset predictions for this week:
Purdue over Rutgers
Purdue was a popular side entering last week’s game against Northwestern, but that bet didn’t pay off. The Boilermakers were crushed 19-0 on the road. I can only assume that’s a big reason why Purdue is a home underdog to an arguably worse Rutgers team this week. In any event, I’ll buy the dip on Purdue. The Boilermakers out-gained Northwestern on a yards-per-play basis last week but had 3 turnovers and couldn’t get off the field on key downs. I think Barry Odom’s Purdue team will respond in a big way this weekend against the Scarlet Knights.
Pick: Purdue +115 on BetMGM
Wake Forest over SMU
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if this is how SMU picked up its first regular-season ACC loss? I could see it. Jake Dickert has been a good coach to back in this spot. Between his 2 head coaching jobs, Dickert’s teams are 4-4 straight up as underdogs between +100 and +175. That includes an outright win over Virginia Tech this season as a +170 dog. Wake Forest is up to No. 40 in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric (SMU is 32nd). Wake’s defense is very good, particularly against the pass where it’s borderline-elite. Meanwhile, this is a sandwich spot for SMU. The Mustangs are coming off of an emotional road win over Clemson this past weekend and have a date with No. 9 Miami next week.
Pick: Wake Forest +155 on BetMGM
Kansas State over Kansas
K-State is 3-4 on the year and still has games against Utah and Texas Tech on its schedule. That means the Wildcats probably have to get this one if they want to reach a bowl game. Kansas State has also dominated KU for years — the Wildcats have won 16 in a row in this series. KU’s defense has struggled for much of this season, in particular with limiting explosive plays. I like the way K-State has responded to some early-season adversity and I think it finds a way to win this game on the road and keep its bowl hopes alive.
Pick: Kansas State +130 on DraftKings
New Mexico State over Missouri State
New Mexico State is barely an underdog here, but I think the wrong team is favored. NMSU quarterback Logan Fife has been legitimately impressive this season despite a poor completion percentage. Fife has a big-time throw rate of 7.7%, which leads all Conference USA quarterbacks who have at least 175 drop-backs. New Mexico State also has an excellent rushing defense. Missouri State may be without starting quarterback Jacob Clark again in this one, who hasn’t played since Sept. 27 due to injury.
Pick: New Mexico State +100 on bet365
Colorado State over Wyoming
This is almost purely a play on Colorado State having its first game under an interim head coach. So far this year, we’ve seen several teams turn their seasons around after parting ways with their head coach. With Florida idle, Colorado State is the only interim coach play this week as Tyson Summers steps in for the fired Jay Norvell. Summers has head coaching experience as he was previously the head man at Georgia Southern. From a statistical profile standpoint, there doesn’t appear to be a big gap between these teams. They’re both outside of the top-90 in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. Last week was worrying for Wyoming’s offense — the Cowboys only scored 21 points against arguably the nation’s worst defense (Air Force). I think CSU gets it done.
Pick: Colorado State +185 on BetMGM
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
