I love a drought stat.
The best drought stats stretch across multiple eras. At their best, they give the casual fan a talking point that they desperately need to sound like they’re more than a casual fan.
For example, a Florida fan can always look at the schedule and say, “well, Tennessee hasn’t beaten us in The Swamp in forever.” That’s true. “Forever” dates back to 2003. In the last 10 matchups between Florida and Tennessee in Gainesville, the home team is 10-0. That’ll be on the line this year when Tennessee travels to Florida, where that stat will inevitably be a major talking point on the broadcast.
But in 2025, I don’t see Tennessee ending that drought. Not unless you tell me that DJ Lagway is hurt, which would obviously change the entire trajectory of Florida’s season.
These are the 7 SEC droughts that I do see coming to an end in 2025:
1. Texas will earn its first preseason AP No. 1 ranking in program history
Sometimes I’ll come across a stat on Sports Reference that’s so stunning that I have to check 6 different places to verify it. While working on a story about why Texas should not want to be the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll — that stems entirely from the fact that the preseason No. 1 failed to win a national title 19 out of the last 20 seasons — I stumbled on something that blew my mind. Texas has never been a preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll. It’s been close. It was the preseason No. 2 in 2009, 2005, 1970, 1965 and 1962, but since the preseason AP Poll became a thing in 1950, it never held that No. 1 spot entering the season.
This year, that finally changes. It was picked to win the SEC, which has been the preamble for the preseason AP No. 1 team each of the last 4 years. Yeah, maybe that’s a bit because of the Arch Manning hype, but a team riding consecutive Playoff semifinal trips that returns a wealth of talent on defense would be worthy of that honor. Well, I suppose recent history suggests it’s a bit more of a dubious honor.
2. Florida will have its first 1,000-yard receiver since Taylor Jacobs in 2002
Isn’t that baffling? That was the first year of the post-Steve Spurrier era. In the 22 seasons since then, a program that’s been loaded with elite receivers hasn’t produced a 1,000-yard guy. Granted, you could say “having too much talent” is part of the problem and the best passing attack (2020 Florida) in that stretch had the odd timing of the COVID-shortened season. Lord knows Georgia fans have forever used the “too much talent” answer as the reason why the program has only had 1 1,000-yard receiver ever. At Florida, we know that’s not the case because Spurrier existed. In the Spurrier era, the Gators had 9 guys join that club. Twice during the Spurrier era, Florida had multiple 1,000-yard receivers in the same season.
So who joins that club in 2025 and ends the drought? Tre Wilson. That is, as long as DJ Lagway can stay healthy. That’s a massive unknown, but I love Wilson’s game so much that we did a Draft on The Saturday Down South Podcast of “2025 Comeback Candidates in College Football” and I picked him with my first pick. After an injury-riddled 2024 season, Wilson will emerge as one of the nation’s top pass-catchers.
3. Auburn will have a first-team All-SEC WR at season’s end for the first time since 1994
Shoutout, Frank Sanders. While Auburn finally had its first top-40 passing offense since 1997, it’s been 31 years since the Tigers could claim a first-team All-SEC wide receiver at season’s end. I thought KeAndre Lambert-Smith had a solid case as someone who ended the regular season ranked No. 3 in the SEC in receiving, but I digress. Perhaps another fellow transfer can put himself in that situation. Eric Singleton is certainly the most accomplished receiver in that room after transferring from Georgia Tech, but the guy with the most upside is Cam Coleman. After his late-season emergence, there’s hope that the former 5-star receiver can become the game-breaking player that’s been lacking in Auburn’s passing game for the vast majority of the 21st century.
In what could be the team’s most talented receiver room in program history, the “if not now, then when?” questions are fair for the first-team All-SEC discussion.
4. Lane Kiffin will beat a ranked Power Conference team in a true road game for the first time since 2011
Yes, I said “Power Conference” team as a qualifier there because with all due respect to No. 24 Tulane playing with a backup quarterback in 2023, I wouldn’t count that as some sign that Kiffin conquered his road game demons. At least not against quality foes. At Ole Miss, here are Kiffin’s results in Power Conference true road games vs. AP Top 25 teams (at the time of the matchup):
- 2021: L, 42-21 at No. 1 Alabama
- 2021: L, 31-20 at No. 18 Auburn
- 2023: L, 24-10 at No. 13 Alabama
- 2023: L, 52-17 at No. 1 Georgia
- 2024: L, 29-26 at No. 13 LSU
Last year alone, Shane Beamer, Mark Stoops, Josh Heupel, Kalen DeBoer, Kirby Smart and Steve Sarkisian all won at least 1 true road game vs. a ranked Power Conference foe. Stoops, of course, did it at Kiffin’s expense in the midst of a 4-win season. In 2025, Kiffin will possibility have 2 true road games vs. ranked foes (at Georgia and at Oklahoma). With a post-hype team that’s being completely slept on, he’ll get on the board in that area for the first time in the post-tarmac era.
5. South Carolina will have its first All-SEC QB at season’s end in program history
Isn’t it crazy to think that Connor Shaw never earned All-SEC honors at season’s end? Wild. Sellers should’ve ended this drought last year instead of Quinn Ewers, but perhaps his injury-plagued first half of the season took that off the table. Whatever the case, Sellers got the preseason first-team nod ahead of Garrett Nussmeier. In what’s expected to be a deep, talented group of SEC quarterbacks, Sellers has a chance to at least earn second-team consideration if he can stay healthy. Of course, his development alongside new offensive coordinator Mike Shula will have a big say in that, as will South Carolina’s ability to establish more consistent weapons.
But Sellers already showed he could be Superman. An encore awaits.
6. Oklahoma will have a top-20 scoring defense for the first time since 2009
It’s wild to think that program with as many elite defensive players as Oklahoma has failed to have a top-20 scoring defense in each of the last 15 seasons. In that stretch alone, Auburn had 4, LSU had 6 and Florida had 7. I bring that up because those are 3 programs who have had prolonged rough stretches during that time but have still found answers.
I wouldn’t say Oklahoma is in the midst of a prolonged rough defensive stretch — that was the Lincoln Riley era — but Brent Venables was brought in with the assumption that top-20 scoring defenses would be a mainstay. He’s got the right group to turn that around this year, especially if R Mason Thomas lives up to his Round 1 billing off the edge. And as long as the Sooners at least get some help on offense this year, that defense will have a much better chance of catching its breath and being one of the elite units in college football.
7. The SEC will put a team in the national championship for the first time since the 2022 season
Hey, 2 years counts as a drought in the SEC. It’s something that hadn’t happened since 2004-05. Of course, the conference then ripped off a historic streak of 7 consecutive national title winners by 4 different SEC programs, which put the wheels in motion for Playoff era. History has shown us that desperation in the conference that both recruits at the highest level and spends the most on coaches should yield national title contenders. Who’ll that be this year? Ohio State is the preseason favorite at +500 and Texas isn’t far behind at +550, while Georgia and Penn State are both +700 (via DraftKings). Perhaps Alabama (+1,100) will end its own personal drought, or maybe LSU (+1,800) will have one of those years.
Whatever the case, 4 of the top 9 preseason favorites to win it all are from the SEC. That suggests that, at the very least, the national championship representation drought has a favorable chance of ending in 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
