A 16-team College Football Playoff field of the best teams in the CFP era

A year into the 12-team College Football Playoff era, the sport’s leaders are looking to bump the invitational up to 16 teams. 

The SEC hasn’t won a national championship since 2022. The Big Ten has claimed each of the last 2 trophies. The Big Ten also got more teams into the 12-team field last season (4) than the SEC (3). And as talk of league schedules focuses in on the SEC’s reluctance to move to a 9-game slate, suggestions of guaranteed spots for the top leagues have been bandied about. 

If the SEC were to move to a 9-game league schedule, Texas A&M AD Trev Alberts has said, schools would want a quarter of the 16-team field reserved for SEC teams. And, if the SEC got 4 guaranteed bids, the Big Ten would want the same. 

Both those leagues hold the majority of the control over the CFP format beyond 2026 — something the rest of the FBS signed off on when they agreed to the new CFP deal. 

Should half the CFP be earmarked for 2 conferences every year, regardless of how strong those conferences might or might not be? It’s an interesting question. Those 2 leagues have produced the last 6 national champions. And in the CFP era, which dates back to the 2014 season, Clemson has been the only team from outside the Power 2 to win a national title. 

Football is tough in the SEC. I’d argue the SEC is deeper than the Big Ten is right now. I’d argue the Big Ten is capable, however, of matching the SEC when it comes to truly elite teams. But the talk of automatic bids and “5+11” models and “this league deserves that” got me thinking. 

Throughout the CFP era, which leagues have produced the best teams?

If we made a 16-team bracket and picked from all 52 teams that have participated in the event, who would get the 1-seed? Would any national champion be left out entirely?

I won’t spoil anything, but I will make 2 important disclaimers off the rip. The first: Not every national champion from the CFP era made this hypothetical bracket. The second: I’m looking at teams over their entire seasons, so the final game, which is a national title in many instances, matters but is not a determining factor. Let’s dive in.

(Credits: SP+ rating refers to the system developed by Bill Connelly, first at SB Nation and currently at ESPN; opponent-adjusted net EPA per play data comes from Game on Paper)

16 — 2016 Clemson Tigers

Record: 14-1 | SP+ rating: 28.7 | Point differential: +21.2 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.21

Led by 41 touchdown passes from Deshaun Watson, this Clemson team blasted Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl and then beat Alabama 35-31 in the national title game. The 2016 Clemson Tigers had the fewest double-digit wins of any team you’ll find in this bracket (7) and saw 3 of the 5 ranked opponents it played all year during the final 3 games of their season. But this team will always be remembered for how it closed. The Tigers outscored Alabama 21-7 in the fourth quarter to win the title, capped by a touchdown from Watson to Hunter Renfrow with 1 second on the clock.  

15 — 2022 Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 11-2 | SP+: 30.7 | Point differential: +23.2 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.36

Ryan Day’s Buckeyes opened the season No. 2 in the AP poll and beat Notre Dame at home by 11. They went on to roll each of their first 11 opponents by double-digits before losing the final 2 games of their season, first to Michigan and then to Georgia in the CFP semis. This was the year Michigan became an official Day Problem, but Ohio State responded by taking Georgia — the eventual champ — to the absolute brink in the CFP. Georgia outscored the Buckeyes 18-3 in the fourth quarter and Ohio State missed a 50-yard field goal in the closing seconds that would have won the game. This team, led by CJ Stroud, is the ultimate “What if?” Group.

14 — 2022 Michigan Wolverines

Record: 13-1 | SP+: 31.3 | Point differential: +24.3 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.37 

This Michigan team had one of the lowest strength-of-schedule rankings of any in the field, had one of the worst yards-per-play differentials of any in the field, and played just 3 ranked opponents all season. The Wolverines also gave up 51 points to a wildly overrated TCU team in the CFP semis. That being said, Michigan also dominated the 2 games it had to win in order to get to the CFP in 2022. The Wolverines beat Penn State by 24 and beat Ohio State in Columbus by 22. 

13 — 2015 Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 14-1 | SP+: 29.0 | Point differential: +20.0 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.22

After a few seasons without a title, Nick Saban and the 2015 Tide played an absolute gauntlet to make it back to the mountaintop. Alabama had the toughest schedule in the country in 2015 while facing 9 opponents who were ranked at the time of the game. Twelve of Alabama’s 14 wins came by double-digits, including a 38-0 curb-stomping in the CFP semis. This was the last Alabama team to win big before Saban went on a masterclass run at the quarterback spot. 

12 — 2017 Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 13-1 | SP+: 33.5 | Point differential: +25.2 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.34

This Alabama team had the fewest double-digit wins and the weakest schedule of any of the 4 Alabama teams in this clump. But the 2017 Tide also have one of the best SP+ ratings of all time and out-gained the opposition by an average of 2.6 yards per play on the year. Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa tag-teamed the overtime win over Georgia in the national championship, but remember when the Tide beat the absolute stuffing out of Vanderbilt and Ole Miss that year? In back-to-back games to close out September, the Tide outscored the pair 125-3 and out-gained them 1,290-331. Those feel like typos. They’re not. 

11 — 2018 Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 14-1 | SP+: 29.6 | Point differential: +27.5 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.38

Twelve of Alabama’s 14 wins came by 20 points or more. In back-to-back weeks to open the month of November, Alabama played then-No. 4 LSU on the road and then-No. 18 Mississippi State at home and blanked both of them. No one touched this Tide team in league play. They beat Kirby Smart (again) in the SEC Championship and then had a 28-0 lead on Oklahoma to open the CFP semis. Nothing went wrong for the 2018 Crimson Tide until around the 8-minute mark in the second quarter of the title game. Alabama trailed Clemson by 5 and, after a Tagovailoa interception, was outscored 23-0 to end the game. After getting smoked in the semis by Saban the year prior, Dabo Swinney got some much-needed revenge.

10 — 2016 Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 14-1 | SP+: 31.7 | Point differential: +25.8 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.40

This 2016 squad, led by Jalen Hurts and a ridiculous defense, was one of Saban’s best teams. Alabama played 10 ranked (at the time) opponents in 2016. It had the toughest schedule in the FBS. And 13 of its 14 wins came by double-digits. The 2016 Tide are 1 of only 5 CFP teams since 2014 to end a season with an opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play mark of 0.40 or higher. Anchored by a group featuring Jonathan Allen, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Reuben Foster, Alabama held opponents to 7 points or less 7 times. The Tide went 17 consecutive quarters to close out the regular season without allowing a defensive touchdown.  

9 — 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 14-2 | SP+: 31.2 | Point differential: +22.8 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.40

Last year’s Buckeye team lost by a single point on the road to Oregon, and it lost at home to Michigan by 3. Despite having one of the most talented rosters in the sport, Day was shut out of the Big Ten title game again and skewered by Ohio State fans for weeks leading up to the start of the CFP. Ohio State then obliterated Tennessee and Oregon to reach the semis. With a long-coveted title in sight, the Buckeyes morphed into the team everyone expected them to be. 

8 — 2021 Georgia Bulldogs

Record: 14-1 | SP+: 32.0 | Point differential: +28.4 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.36

Georgia beat 13 opponents by double-digits en route to what was its first national title in more than 40 years. The Bulldogs lost to Alabama in the SEC title game, but got a chance to redeem themselves in the national title game. With a 33-18 victory over the Tide, Smart earned his first career win over Saban. Georgia outscored Alabama 27-9 in the second half to do it. Half of this team has since been drafted into the NFL. 

7 — 2019 Clemson Tigers

Record: 14-1 | SP+: 28.1 | Point differential: +30.4 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.47

The 2019 Tigers scored at least 50 points 7 times. From Oct. 12 through Dec. 7, only 1 opponent (South Carolina) held Clemson under 45 points. Trevor Lawrence threw 36 touchdowns, Travis Etienne ran for 1,614 yards and 19 touchdowns, and Isaiah Simmons played like a star in a versatile role across the defense. Swinney’s last great Clemson team was certainly one of his best. They beat one of the best teams to ever appear in the CFP to make the title game and only lost to one of the best teams to ever appear in the CFP. 

6 — 2023 Michigan Wolverines

Record: 15-0 | SP+: 31.3 | Point differential: +25.5 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.35

One of the great questions of this exercise was what to do with the unbeaten but very much blemished 2023 Wolverines. Michigan played a top-10 schedule and won 11 of its 15 games by double-digits. Michigan blanked Iowa in the Big Ten title game, beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl, and handled Washington to win its first national championship in nearly 30 years. Michigan became the first national champion since 2001 Miami to hold a halftime lead in all of its games. Yet, despite all that, coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for the first 3 games of the season for COVID recruiting violations and then suspended for another 3 games at the end of the season in connection to sign-stealing allegations. An investigation into Michigan’s alleged cheating has resulted in the resignation or firing of 3 former staffers and a subsequent suspension for new head coach Sherrone Moore. Michigan was said to have known opponents’ plays. Following the season, much of the staff bolted for the NFL and the next Michigan team lost 5 games.

5 — 2018 Clemson Tigers

Record: 15-0 | SP+: 28.6 | Point differential: +31.2 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.36

Only one CFP participant (the next team listed) outscored their opponents by more in their respective season. No one on this list came close to Clemson’s plus-3.2 yards-per-play average. Thirteen of the Tigers’ 15 wins came by double digits. The defense had 3 future first-rounders. The offense had a first-round running back and a future No. 1 overall pick at quarterback. Trevor Lawrence began the season on the bench; he ended it throwing for 674 yards and 6 scores without a turnover in a 30-3 win over Notre Dame and a 44-16 demolition of Alabama. Swinney’s best team.  

4 — 2019 Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 13-1 | SP+: 35.4 | Point differential: +33.2 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.43

I strongly considered putting the 2019 Buckeyes ahead of the 2019 LSU Tigers. The Buckeyes had a higher SP+ rating. They outscored their opponents by 33 points, nearly a full touchdown more than LSU. They had the second-best net EPA-per-play mark of any CFP participant, behind only 2019 Clemson. They outgained their opponents on a per-play basis slightly better than LSU, and they had 13 double-digit wins compared to LSU’s 12. However, Ohio State lost to the team that lost to LSU in the CFP. It’s true that the gap between the top 3 and the fourth team in this 4-team CFP field (Oklahoma) was a cavern, and Ohio State had the misfortune of seeing Clemson in the semis. This team was capable of winning a title. It’d argue its the best team Day has had at Ohio State. Justin Fields was a monster, throwing for 41 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. JK Dobbins ran for 2,003 yards and 21 touchdowns. Chase Young had 16.5 sacks. The Buckeyes won each of their first 10 games by at least 24 points. Their only loss came in the CFP semis, on an interception in the end zone with 37 seconds remaining in a 6-point game. 

3 — 2019 LSU Tigers

Record: 15-0 | SP+: 33.1 | Point differential: +26.5 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.38

All that stuff you just read about Ohio State having a better analytical profile than LSU? Those are all legitimate facts, but, come on. LSU beat the team that beat Ohio State by 17 points. After falling down 17-7 in the title game, Joe Burrow ran for a score and threw for 2 others in a 21-point second quarter that flipped the game and cemented the 2019 Tigers as one of the greatest teams in college football history. Burrow had arguably the greatest season a quarterback has ever had at the college level, throwing for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns while completing 76% of his throws and averaging nearly 11 yards per attempt. According to The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel, the 2019 Tigers are the only team in FBS history to beat 5 of the top 8 teams in the final AP poll. 

2 — 2020 Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 13-0 | SP+: 35.6 | Point differential: +29.1 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.42

While dealing with a worldwide pandemic, every single aspect of Alabama’s football operation changed. And the resulting team was the best one Saban has ever produced. Alabama played a 13-game schedule that exclusively featured power conference opponents. After scoring a paltry 38 points against Mizzou to open the season, the Tide scored at least 41 in each of their next 10 games. They had wins of 41, 49, and 60 points against SEC competition. They won 12 of their 13 games by at least 2 touchdowns. The quarterback (Mac Jones) set a record for single-season completion rate. The top wideout (DeVonta Smith) authored the greatest receiving season in college football history. And the top running back (Najee Harris) scored 26 rushing touchdowns. 

1 — 2022 Georgia Bulldogs

Record: 15-0 | SP+: 37.3 | Point differential: +27.1 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.33

Georgia eviscerated its opponents in its quest to defend its title from the previous season. The Bulldogs opened the 2022 season with a 49-3 mauling of an outstanding Oregon team. The defense didn’t give up its first touchdown of the season until the fourth quarter of the third game. Georgia destroyed an 8-win South Carolina team in Columbia, beat an 11-win Tennessee team by 2 scores, put 50 on LSU in the SEC title game, and then turned the national championship game into a video game simulation. No team on the list had more double-digit wins in a single season, and no one had a better SP+ rating. Months after the title, Georgia would set the modern NFL Draft record with 15 players selected in 7 rounds, including 5 in the first round.