There’s no such thing as an easy game in the College Football Playoff, but Alabama’s upcoming Cotton Bowl matchup with Michigan State couldn’t have been any more favorable to the Crimson Tide.
It’s not meant as a slight, but the more conservative offensive approach of the Big Ten champions probably poses less of an issue to a stingy Alabama defense than the more wide-open attacks employed by top-ranked Clemson and No. 4 Oklahoma.
Alabama’s defense might be the best in the nation, but it has been vulnerable in the past to up-tempo style offenses and dual-threat quarterbacks who can hurt opposing defenses with their arm and feet.
Guys like Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield.
Spartans quarterback Connor Cook has a bright NFL future, but he isn’t exactly going to keep opposing defensive coordinators awake at night with thoughts of him running wild out on the edge.
Like the Crimson Tide, Michigan State prefers to run the ball first behind a tough offensive line led by a pair of preseason All-Americans in senior center Jack Allen and junior tackle Jack Conklin.
The Spartans ran it 526 times this season for 2,089 yards and 24 TDs. They threw it 401 times for 3,069 yards and 26 TDs.
While Cook has relied on the running game, he has proven himself an effective passer, especially in the play-action game.
He completed 57 percent (210 of 369) of his passes for 2,921 yards and 24 touchdowns with just five interceptions.
The key question is whether coach Mark Dantonio’s team has enough big-time athletes who can burn Alabama on the edge for enough big plays to force the Tide into an early hole and to abandon its trademark power ground game?
The statistics suggest no: Michigan State has just three pass plays longer than 40 yards this season, tied for 117th nationally. (Alabama has eight such pass plays.)
The SEC champions boast a workhorse running back in Derrick Henry and a deep and talented offensive line that consistently provides him room to run.
The Spartans averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and have yet to see a run defense as stout as the Tide’s. Michigan State will insist Alabama has never faced as offensive line as talented as the one it will line up against in Dallas.
Alabama leads the nation in rush defense at 74.0 yards per game and ranks second in total defense at 258.2 yards. Alabama limited Florida to just 15 yards rushing on 21 carries in last weekend’s SEC Championship Game and essentially ended Leonard Fournette’s Heisman hopes in their Nov. 7 showdown.
There’s no questioning the toughness of Michigan State’s offensive line, but the edge in depth up front goes to Alabama thanks to years of top-flight recruiting classes. You’ll likely see the difference in the second half as a relentless Crimson Tide defense takes control.
Alabama just wears down opponents on both sides, and Michigan State appears next in line.
John Hollis is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers Georgia and Florida.
