Alabama vs. Wisconsin: Crimson Tide betting preview, predictions, odds
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Alabama will be looking for its first power-conference win of the season on Saturday as it hosts Wisconsin.
The Crimson Tide fell to Florida State in Week 1 before blasting Louisiana-Monroe the following week. The Badgers, meanwhile, are 2-0 but have yet to face a power-conference opponent this season.
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Alabama is a massive betting favorite in this game. Here’s what the latest odds look like:
Wisconsin fact sheet
- Wisconsin is 2-0 this season with comfortable wins over Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee.
- The Badgers hosted Alabama last season but got blown out. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke suffered a season-ending injury early in the game and was replaced by Braedyn Locke, who is now at Arizona.
- Starting quarterback Billy Edwards is not expected to play in this game due to an injury he suffered in Week 1. Wisconsin snagged Danny O’Neil out of the transfer portal this offseason. O’Neil started for San Diego State as a true freshman, so he has significant experience despite still just being a sophomore.
- O’Neil has been solid for Wisconsin so far this season, albeit against lesser competition. He’s averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and has a passer efficiency rating of 169.7.
- Wisconsin has not run the ball particularly well. The Badgers are 80th in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
- Defensively, the Badgers have put up decent numbers. They’re top-20 nationally in EPA-per-rush defense entering Week 3. They’ve been a little more vulnerable to the pass game, ranking just 49th in pass defense success rate.
- Wisconsin has a new offensive coordinator this season in Jeff Grimes. The Badgers struggled the last couple of years with Phil Longo calling plays. Grimes is a veteran coach who most recently served as the OC at Kansas in 2024.
- One (likely intentional) consequence of bringing in Grimes is I’d expect Wisconsin to play at a slower pace than it did under Longo. Per TeamRankings, Wisconsin was 60th in pace in 2024 and 2023. It’s a small sample, but through 2 games in 2025, Wisconsin is 127th in tempo.
Alabama fact sheet
- Alabama responded to its embarrassing Week 1 loss with a 73-0 beatdown of Louisiana-Monroe. Ty Simpson completed all 17 of his pass attempts in the victory.
- ULM is slated to be one of the worst FBS teams in the country this year, so this win may not ultimately mean much. Still, it’s an important confidence boost for a program that was reeling after Week 1.
- Alabama’s running game has really suffered with Jam Miller still sidelined. The Crimson Tide rank 111th nationally in rushing success rate after 2 weeks, per Game on Paper. Miller will be a game-time decision on Saturday, per coach Kalen DeBoer.
- Ryan Williams is expected to return for Alabama in Week 3. The sophomore wide receiver suffered a concussion late in the Tide’s loss to FSU last week and did not play vs. ULM.
- Defensively, Jah-Marien Latham and Tim Keenan are also game-time decisions, per DeBoer.
- Against Florida State, every part of Alabama’s defense was exposed. The Noles posted elite numbers in the following categories: EPA per dropback, explosive play rate and red zone success rate. FSU was also very effective with its running game. If Keenan is back this week, that will make things more difficult for Wisconsin. Keenan earned a run defense grade of 90.1 from PFF last year.
Wisconsin vs. Alabama predictions
I expect Alabama’s offense to be dominant in this matchup as it was a year ago in Madison. The Crimson Tide have scored touchdowns on their opening drive in back-to-back games. Alabama struggled relative to other SEC teams on its opening drive in 2024, but DeBoer’s Washington teams with Ryan Grubb calling plays were consistently excellent to start games. With Grubb back in the building, I like Alabama’s first quarter offense. I’m also not convinced at all that Wisconsin will be able to move the ball on the Crimson Tide given what we’ve seen from the Badgers against much-lesser opponents in the first 2 weeks.
Pick: Alabama -6.5 in the first quarter (-115 on Fanatics)
Germie Bernard has been Alabama’s top receiver so far this season. That’s partially due to Ryan Williams’ concussion in Week 1, but Bernard was the more productive receiver against the Noles as well. Bernard is a big-play threat every time he runs a route — he’s averaged an excellent 3.23 yards per route run so far in 2025. He also already has over 100 yards after the catch this season in just 2 games. With the possibility that Williams isn’t quite 100%, I think there’s a lot of value on Bernard’s receiving props currently. Even if Williams does play, I’d expect a healthy dose of targets for Bernard — especially given Alabama’s struggles in the run game so far this season.
Pick: Germie Bernard over 63.5 receiving yards (-117 on Caesars)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
