AP Top 25 reaction: What the voters got wrong, who’s overrated, who’s underrated in first poll of 2025

The voters in the AP poll get things wrong all the time. 

This sport is largely subjective at the end of the day. What’s aesthetically pleasing to you might not be aesthetically pleasing to me. What looks like a great win to you might not look like such a great win to me. How you evaluate this team compared to that team might not be the same way I evaluate Team X compared to Team Y. 

This is no more evident than in the preseason AP Top 25, which was released on Monday. The margin between Texas (No. 1) and Penn State (No. 2) was the slimmest it has been in a preseason poll since 1998. 

Texas got 25 first-place votes. Penn State got 23. The 5-point difference between the 2 comes down to style preference. 

But you clicked on my column and I certainly have a style preference when it comes to my college football teams, so I’m here to tell you what the voters got wrong in the first official media poll of the new season. 

2025 preseason AP Top 25

1. Texas (25)
2. Penn State (23)
3. Ohio State (11)
4. Clemson (4)
5. Georgia (1)
6. Notre Dame 
7. Oregon (1)
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Miami
11. Arizona State
12. Illinois
13. South Carolina
14. Michigan
15. Florida
16. SMU
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma
19. Texas A&M
20. Indiana
21. Ole Miss
22. Iowa State
23. Texas Tech
24. Tennessee
25. Boise State

Receiving votes: BYU 156, Utah 144, Baylor 132, Louisville 90, USC 64, Georgia Tech 63, Missouri 33, Tulane 23, Nebraska 23, UNLV 21, Toledo 13, Auburn 10, James Madison 9, Memphis 9, Florida State 8, Duke 6, Navy 5, Liberty 5, Iowa 5, TCU 4, Pittsburgh 3, Army 2, Louisiana 1, Colorado 1

Who’s being overvalued in the AP poll?

So much of this discussion — who’s too high, who’s too low — comes down to what question you believe the preseason AP poll should answer. Is it a guess of how the season will end? Or is it a snapshot of this exact point in time? Some voters treat their ballot as if it were seeking to answer the former, some the latter. 

I tend to view the preseason poll as less a guess about what happens later (that’s why we have polls later) and more about where teams currently stand. That’s why I had Ohio State No. 1 in my own Top 25 after spring ball ended. 

I had Texas at No. 5, behind Penn State, Clemson, and Georgia. 

There are very few arguments for putting Texas above Ohio State. 

Both replace a ton. 

Both have new quarterbacks. 

Both have former 5-stars stepping in at quarterback. 

“But Texas has Arch Manning.” The only difference between Arch Manning and Julian Sayin at this point in their respective careers is one has the “Manning” name attached to him. We know nothing of actual substance about either. 

“But Texas has more talent.” Ohio State has the best offensive player in the sport on its roster and the best defensive player in the sport on its roster. 

Both have recruited at a high enough clip in recent years that the talent level should remain sky-high regardless of how much needs to be replaced. Both have established coaches. I guess Texas has a leg up on Ohio State in that Steve Sarkisian didn’t have to replace both of his coordinators this offseason, but Ryan Day stayed in-house with one of the sport’s rising stars for his new offensive coordinator and hired a Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator, so I’m not too worried about the staff in Columbus. 

Ohio State won a national championship last season. In my book, that accomplishment means you open the next year on top until someone knocks you off. If you wanted to place Clemson or Penn State at No. 1 and cite returning production/starters as a reason for doing so, I would understand your point of view. I wouldn’t necessarily agree with it, but I’d understand it. 

Texas showed nothing last season that warranted a preseason No. 1 ranking and has more questions to answer in the new year than some of the teams ranked below it. Is Manning actually the supernova star he has been billed as? Or is he just… good? Will a young receiving corps actually step up and meet the moment? Is the offensive line going to be fine after losing so many important pieces? Can Texas actually beat a good team? 

(I suppose that last question also applies to Penn State and Clemson.)

I think Texas is being significantly overvalued, in part, because people can’t separate the name from the player at quarterback. Flip the quarterbacks in this Week 1 matchup. Put Sayin on Texas. Would Texas be your preseason No. 1? I could not care less how Manning looked against the UTSA or Louisiana-Monroe defense. Neither of those defenses does anything to prepare him for facing Ohio State in Columbus or Georgia in Athens.

RELATED: Texas is an underdog in its Week 1 matchup with Ohio State at most of the major sports betting apps. That marks the first time since at least 1978 that the preseason No. 1 is an underdog in its opening game. Want to bet on the Longhorns? Tap the link above and you’ll find a sign-up bonus to get you rolling.

Now, to cover my rear, I — an OU grad — will turn to another team that is being significantly overvalued in the preseason poll. 

Oklahoma. 

The Sooners went 6-7 last season with one of the more disgusting offenses we’ve seen in years. The Sooners lost 6 of their last 8 games, only beating Maine and (lol) Alabama along the way. They lost their heart-and-soul linebacker in the middle of their defense, replaced both coordinators, and revamped the offensive side of the football. Their head coach enters the new year very firmly on the hot seat after a John Blake-like start to his tenure. 

And they are ranked 18th. 

Huh? 

I love John Mateer. I’ve written about John Mateer a ton this offseason. And getting to work alongside the same offensive coordinator as last year should help Mateer in his transition from Washington State to Oklahoma. But jumping from the Mountain West to the SEC is a massive step up in class. We can compare Mateer to Ward, but I’d argue Ward played worse teams in the ACC last season than he did in the Pac-12 in 2023. There’s no guarantee Mateer will be a Heisman threat with the Sooners just because he looked great with Wazzu. 

Because there’s also no guarantee the actual things that were wrong with this offense last season — skill position health and line play — have been fixed. There are 8 new pass-catchers and a new (projected) starting running back. One of my favorite additions at receiver broke his leg in the spring and has been recovering from April surgery. Jaydn Ott is coming off his least (by far) productive rushing season because he was limited by injury. 

Along the offensive line, 10 guys played at least 150 snaps last season and 6 of them return. Five-star freshman Michael Fasusi joined the group, as did 3 transfers. Injuries forced a heavy rotation last season, and that experience could pay dividends for several guys up front. But bringing back a bunch of players who were bad doesn’t guarantee they will get better. Of the 10 offensive linemen who saw 150 snaps for the Sooners last season, no one had an offensive grade from PFF better than 68.2. 

Jackson Arnold, who was benched for being ineffective, transferred to another SEC school and will probably open the season as the starting quarterback there. It won’t matter how electric Mateer is if he doesn’t have any protection. 

Oklahoma certainly has the potential to be a top 25 team this season, but I’d like to see it first. 

For what it’s worth, OU was not in my post-spring top 25.  

That ranking also had Miami at No. 21 — 11 spots below where the Hurricanes will actually open the season at. 

We just did this with Carson Beck. 

Miami’s leading returning receiver from last season is tight end Elijah Lofton, who caught 9 passes for 150. The top 4 wideouts and the top tight end left. Lofton is the projected starter at tight end and, among the 3 projected starters at receiver, we have a pair of young guys stepping into featured roles for the first times in their career as well as an LSU transfer who had surgery on his foot in the spring and missed most of the period.

Beck wasn’t solely to blame for Georgia’s “down” 2024 season, but his mid-season malaise certainly didn’t help. Beck threw 12 interceptions and his completion rate dropped from 72.4% the year prior to 64.7%. 

All 12 picks came during a 5-game stretch when Georgia lost twice, and the talking points throughout that stretch were always the same. Beck wasn’t trusting what he was seeing. He wasn’t taking the plays that were available and, instead, was trying to hunt plays that changed games. 

He clearly missed Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers from the year prior. Now, he’s learning a new system with an entirely new supporting cast, and he’s working himself back from surgery on his throwing arm. 

Beck is not Cam Ward. The defense also returns only 3 of its top 10 tacklers from last season. The head coach is still a question mark in close games. And the ‘Canes are coming off losses in 3 of their last 4 games to finish 18th last season. 

Who’s being undervalued in the AP poll? 

Short answer: BYU, Mizzou, and Louisville.

None of them is ranked.

All of them probably should be.

I had BYU and Louisville in my post-spring top 25, with the Cougars at No. 17 and the Cardinals right behind them at No. 18. 

The Cougars were 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or less last season, which helped them to an 11-win campaign. 

In November, they lost back-to-back — by 4 at home, then by 5 on the road — to fall out of the College Football Playoff picture. But they rebounded nicely and closed out the year with consecutive wins. 

BYU ended the season 13th in the final AP poll. My best guess is that the offseason departure from quarterback Jake Retzlaff caused the Cougars to tumble all the way down and out of the preseason poll. 

(If that’s the case, I’d be curious why that same logic wasn’t applied to Tennessee.)

Tailback LJ Martin and wideout Chase Roberts are back to lead the offense again. The Retzlaff situation doesn’t spook me quite as much as it might others. He was a sub-60% passer who put the ball in danger too much last year. BYU didn’t spend 7 weeks in the AP top 15 last year because of Retzlaff. It did so because of its ability to punish opponents for mistakes in all 3 phases of the game, and I think that is a repeatable trait for coach Kalani Sitake. BYU was fourth in special teams SP+ and one of the least penalized teams in the country. It’s a group that doesn’t beat itself.

Retzlaff’s summer departure didn’t leave BYU’s coaching staff with the option to seek a replacement in the portal, but they did know going into fall camp they would need to have someone new installed for Week 1. Who will that quarterback be? Your guess is as good as mine. 

Sitake and his staff will have to rework things, but this is a good defense and those aspects of the team that speak to culture (penalties, special teams prowess) suggest a pretty high floor in the new year. 

I was shocked to see BYU outside the top 25. 

Same goes for Louisville. 

The Cardinals went 9-4 last season, brought in a perfect quarterback to pair with coach Jeff Brohm, brought back Isaac Brown and Chris Bell, and could very well field a top-10 offense in 2025.

At least 1 team that opened the season unranked finished in the AP top 10 in 29 of the last 31 seasons. My money is on Louisville being that team this season.

Finally, Mizzou’s exclusion from the preseason poll is fascinating to me. 

Most of the time, these preseason polls feature teams that fall into 1 of 2 buckets. The first bucket is for schools that have brand recognition. These schools are safe inclusions in a preseason poll because they are usually featured in regular-season polls. They’ve been consistently good recently. The second bucket is for teams that killed the offseason and signed a well-regarded recruiting class. 

Mizzou fits both those categories. 

Eleven FBS schools have won at least 10 games in each of the last 2 seasons. Eight of those 11 belong to power conferences, or are Notre Dame. Seven of those 8 are ranked in this year’s preseason top 25.

Mizzou is the only one that isn’t. 

The Tigers also signed a top-10 transfer class, headlined by a star running back, a transfer quarterback who was rated as a 4-star, a former 5-star Georgia recruit, and the SEC’s leading returning receiver. 

Mizzou ended last season 19th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings. The Tigers are 56th nationally in returning production, according to Connelly’s tracking, which sits ahead of 5 ranked SEC teams. And the Tigers are 21st in preseason SP+. Mizzou is also a top-25 team in Kelley Ford’s preseason ratings.

If Penn State transfer quarterback Beau Pribula hits and Mizzou rebounds from a down offensive season — it finished 52nd in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, down from 12th in 2023 — the Tigers are a threat to win double-digit games for a third consecutive season. I don’t think we should factor perceived schedule strength into the preseason poll, but Mizzou’s slate of games in 2025 gives it a great chance to end the year ranked for what would be a third straight season.

If Eli Drinkwitz were to pull that particular feat off, he’d be the first coach in Mizzou history to do so.