No. 1 Auburn will host No. 2 Alabama on Saturday afternoon in a matchup that could go a long way toward determining the SEC regular-season champion.
The Tigers and Crimson Tide have dominated the SEC hoops scene over the last half-decade, but the 2024-25 season has taken that to a new level. For the first time in league history, the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country will face off in an SEC game on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.
Here’s a breakdown of the betting odds and a few picks and predictions for Saturday’s game:
Auburn vs. Alabama basketball betting odds
Here are the current odds for Auburn vs. Alabama via bet365:
Auburn vs. Alabama spread prediction
I’m going with Alabama -2. The Crimson Tide have only 1 SEC loss this season and it was rather flukey — with all due respect to Ole Miss. Alabama shot just 5-of-20 from 3-point range against the Rebels and put up season-worst totals in both turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate. Since then, Alabama has won 7 consecutive games and has scored over 100 points 3 times in that span.
Auburn lost its first SEC game of the season last weekend against Florida, but a defeat had been coming. Since Jan. 25, Auburn’s defense ranks just 30th nationally in schedule-adjusted efficiency, according to BartTorvik. Auburn has still performed like a top-10 team in the country over that span, but the Tigers have regressed slightly from their all-time-great pace they appeared to be on in early January.
One specific matchup to watch out for in this game: the free throw line. Particularly when Alabama has the ball. The Crimson Tide get to the charity stripe at an elite rate (18th nationally per KenPom) and Auburn’s defense has been prone to foul a lot. The Tigers rank 13th in the SEC in defensive free throw rate in conference play. That’s a big edge for the Tide, particularly on their home floor.
Pick: Alabama -2 (-110)
Auburn vs. Alabama total prediction
This game carries an extremely-high total of 172.5 points. There’s only been 12 Division I games all season with a total of at least 170 points this year, according to BetIQ. The under in those games is 9-3 entering Saturday’s slate of games. This is the first time Auburn has had a total north of 170 points this season but will be the 4th time for the Crimson Tide. The under is 2-1 in Alabama’s previous 3 contests with a total of at least 170.
With that being said, I’m still leaning toward the over in this spot. Both Alabama and Auburn have been pretty mediocre on defense of late — or at least have regressed from where they were earlier in the year — but have maintained their elite offensive numbers. Alabama’s extremely-fast tempo should also help get this number to the over.
Pick: Over 172.5 (-110)
Auburn vs. Alabama player props
Here’s a look at some of the player points props listed on BetMGM as of publication:
Miles Kelly is averaging 12 points per game during SEC play. He’s 1 of 5 Auburn players who average double-figures against SEC opposition and it’s largely because of his elite 3-point shooting. Kelly is making over 40% of his 3-point tries during conference action on north of 5 attempts per game. That’s exceptional work. Given that this number is below his average despite Alabama’s frenetic pace leads me to believe there’s some value in this pick.
Pick: Miles Kelly over 11.5 points (-110)
BetMGM also has over/unders listed for several other markets, including player rebounds, assists and made 3-pointers!
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
