The National Championship Game is finally here.
Miami and Indiana are set to do battle in one of the most unlikely championship game matchups in recent memory. With kickoff right around the corner, let’s break down the prop market for this game in search of some value.
Best prop picks for National Championship Game
Let’s dive in:
Passing yardage props
Carson Beck over 197.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM). I think this number is just a little bit too low. There are plenty of outcomes where Miami ends up throwing the ball a lot due to game script. Beck has also been well above-average against the blitz this season (155 passer rating), which he’ll see plenty of from Indiana’s defense. Considering Miami’s team total is around 20 at most shops, I’m surprised Beck’s passing yardage prop is this low.
Fernando Mendoza under 222.5 passing yards (-114 via Caesars). Mendoza has been flat out unbelievable during the postseason. In his last 3 games (including the Big Ten title game), Mendoza is averaging 10 yards per attempt with a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. But here’s the thing — he hasn’t cleared this passing yardage number in any of those 3 contests. He’s only gone over 222 yards in 6 of 15 games this year, and just 1 of those performances came away from Bloomington. In most big-game situations, Indiana has relied on its running game between the 20s and then Mendoza in the red zone (he has 13 passing touchdowns across his 4 lowest-yardage output games of the season). I think we’ll see that pattern again against Miami.
Rushing yardage props
Malachi Toney under 8.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM). Wide receiver rushing props are always an adventure. Toney’s rushing usage has been clustered in a predictable way, however. He has 7 games with multiple carries and 8 games with 0-1 carries. His median carry is about 4 yards, so he’d theoretically need 2-3 rush attempts or more to clear this number. Maybe getting Toney involved in the running game will be part of Miami’s game plan, but I’d be comfortable betting against it. Wisconsin is the only team on Indiana’s schedule to try multiple WR runs against the Hoosiers this season. Excluding the Wisconsin game, IU’s defense has only seen 6 rush attempts by receivers all season. If there was an angle coaches thought they could exploit against this Indiana defense, I think we would have seen more of it by now.
Kaelon Black longest rush over 17.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings). Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby are a great 1-2 punch in Indiana’s backfield, but Black has been significantly more explosive this season. Black has 13 rushes of 20 yards or more while Hemby has just 4. And yet, Black’s longest rush prop sits at 17.5 while Hemby’s is just a few yards lower at 14.5. Black has an 18-yard (or more) carry in 10 of 15 games this season. That’s a very strong hit rate paired with an uptick in usage in recent weeks (4 straight games with 12+ carries). There’s also this: Miami’s defense is in the 4th percentile this season at preventing explosive runs, according to Game on Paper.
Anytime TD prop
CharMar Brown to score a touchdown (+300 at BetMGM). Famous last words, but I think this prop is mispriced. Mark Fletcher is the big name in Miami’s backfield but CharMar Brown has been nearly equal with Fletcher in terms of red-zone usage in recent weeks. Over the past 5 games, Brown has 9 red-zone carries and Fletcher has 11. Both have 3 touchdowns. And yet, Fletcher’s anytime TD market is all the way up at +130. Miami’s offense is very run-heavy inside the 10-yard line (70% rushing attempts). Even with Miami only expected to score 2-3 touchdowns in this game (based on pre-game odds), Brown’s anytime TD prop seems clearly undervalued by the betting market.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
