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The weekend in the SEC was chaotic. Bubble teams, backed into a proverbial corner and desperate for a win, knocked off some in the SEC’s second tier. Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt all picked up wins against visiting ranked opponents. In the midweek window, we might see a few more desperation spots for teams that need to improve their NCAA Tournament chances.
Here’s how I’m betting on the action.
2024-25 record: 14-10
Last week: 2-1
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting app. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
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Georgia-Florida total under 149.5 points (-115 via ESPN Bet)
The Bulldogs have lost 4 straight games and find their postseason hopes fading fast. They are in desperate need of a signature victory to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee, and this time of the year, desperation tends to produce results. We just saw as much this past weekend in the SEC, when Arkansas beat Mizzou in a game it absolutely had to have and Oklahoma beat Mississippi State to snap a 5-game losing streak. Georgia has been formidable at home this season, beating Kentucky by 13, falling by just 2 to Auburn, and losing by just 1 to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs block a ton of shots, defend the 3-point line well, keep opponents off the charity stripe, and steal a decent number of extra possessions. Georgia also plays at one of the slower paces in the league. It just can’t keep pace in the higher-scoring affairs. It lost by 30 to Florida earlier this season in a game where live-ball turnovers were a significant issue. If those pop up again, Georgia has no chance. But I think we could see a more focused Georgia team at home given everything that is on the line. That should mean a steadfast commitment to the gameplan and some physicality. If the Bulldogs have any hope of upsetting the Gators, it has to be in a lower-scoring game. Then again, Florida, legitimately one of the most complete teams in the country this season, could just blow the Bulldogs out again. The Gators have won 6 straight and have held each of their last 4 opponents under 70 points. The first meeting between these two teams finished with 148 combined points.
LSU team total under 63.5 points (-118 via BetMGM)
The second-worst offense in the SEC meets the best defense in not just the league, but the entire country. Tennessee is No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Vols also have one of the best raw defensive ratings in the country, giving up just 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are only averaging around 66 possessions per game against Tennessee, and LSU has been dreadfully inefficient at putting the ball through the basket since conference play began. And they’ve been erratic at that. LSU scored 81 points on South Carolina and 74 points on Auburn. They mustered just 58 against Arkansas and 58 against Texas. They scored only 57 against Texas A&M. Frigid 3-point shooting was a theme. LSU isn’t a good 3-point shooting team in general (31.6% on the year) but it takes a ton of shots from beyond the arc anyway. Against Oklahoma and South Carolina recently, the Tigers hit 24 combined triples at a 41.4% clip. In the losses to A&M, Texas, and Arkansas, LSU made 14-of-64 from downtown (21.9%). Tennessee has the third-best 3-point defense in basketball and it forces opponents to jack long jumpers. With LSU just running out the clock on a disappointing season, I don’t see the home crowd spurring on an uncharacteristically hot shooting performance here.
Alabama -7.5 vs. Mississippi State (-118 via DraftKings)
From a matchup standpoint, Mississippi State’s weaknesses are vulnerable to being pressed in a major way by Alabama. The Bulldogs give up a ton of 3s, and teams all year have converted those looks at a high rate. In 14 conference games, opposing offenses are making an average of 9.8 3s and taking an average of 26.9 triples per game against the Bulldog defense. That’s a conversion rate of 36.3%. No SEC team gives up more made 3s per game. Alabama takes 27 3s and makes 10 of them per game. Aden Holloway is a 47% shooter in league play. Chris Youngblood is a 40% shooter. And Mark Sears, though streakier, is capable of exploding when he gets hot. Josh Hubbard scored 38 points in the first meeting between these 2 teams and Mississippi State still lost. Unless he goes 6-for-15 from 3 again, I see a game where Mississippi State is answering 3s with 2s.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
