Betting Stuff: Best bets for Week 10 of the 2025 college football season
Published:
I broke down my early-week card here. Below, I’m pulling 2 of those same games for Best Bets this week. Let’s dive in.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 1-2
2025 season: 9-19-1
2024 season: 33-37
Week 10 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 10 game below.
Bet Mississippi State +4.5 at Arkansas (-110 via BetMGM)
Mississippi State has to stay on schedule for its offense to be effective. When things get off schedule and quarterback Blake Shapen has to operate out of passing downs, the efficiency nosedives. Mississippi State has a 51% success rate on standard downs this season, and just a 30% success rate on passing downs.
The Bulldogs averaged 5.7 yards per play through 3 quarters against Texas and scored 31 points. They averaged 6 yards a play against Florida. Both of those were 1-possession ballgames. In the 22-point loss to Texas A&M, MSU averaged 3.2 yards per play through the first 3 quarters, gave up 9 TFLs and 4 sacks, and faded in the fourth.
Against an Arkansas defense that hasn’t stopped anyone all season, if MSU can string together a few scoring drives in the first half, it has a chance to earn its first conference win of 2025. The Bulldogs have fought to the bitter end in 3 of their 4 SEC defeats so far this season, so don’t expect them to throw in the towel. Arkansas, meanwhile, has been a train wreck, complete with busts, turnovers, and misfires.
Bet Georgia Tech -5.5 at NC State (-110 via DraftKings)
Much like Arkansas, NC State’s defense has slipped to ghastly levels in 2025. The Wolfpack give up 2.7 points per possession and only generate stops on 51.9% of the drives they face.
NC State has been pretty stingy on a down-to-down basis — 21st in success rate allowed, 10th in rushing SR — but that’s because the defense is so polarized. They average 5.5 tackles for loss per game but only 7 power conference teams have given up more scrimmage plays of at least 10 yards.
Georgia Tech, while not the most explosive offense, is a machine when it comes to efficiency. The Yellow Jackets rank in the 75th percentile for stuff rate and in the 78th percentile for EPA per play on all non-explosive snaps.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr and Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel both shredded the NC State secondary in back-to-back games. If Tech’s Haynes King starts hitting explosives in the pass game, Georgia Tech should be able to do what it wants on offense, and that’s bad news for NC State.
Bet Auburn -10.5 vs. Kentucky (-110 via bet365)
Save for a 16-13 overtime loss to Texas, Kentucky hasn’t looked good in SEC play. And that’s especially true on the road. It had a 10-7 lead after 15 minutes at South Carolina, then gave up a scoop-and-score and a pick-6 in the first 5 minutes of the second quarter and imploded. Georgia had a 14-0 lead after the first quarter and never looked back.
Then, last week, Tennessee put 56 points on the Wildcats in a 22-point win.
Kentucky quarterback Cutter Boley has looked promising. (Though everyone looks good against the Tennessee defense.) But Auburn actually has a pulse. No SEC defense stuffs more runs at the line of scrimmage than Auburn. The Tigers keep teams off-schedule.
That side of the football keeps fighting even in the face of uncertainty with their head coach. And perhaps a quarterback change sparks something against a Kentucky defense that has given up 6 yards per play to SEC offenses this season.
Ashton Daniels took first-team reps during Auburn’s practice on Tuesday. He completed 6 of his 8 passes for 77 yards in the win over Arkansas. A change is certainly on the table for Auburn, and I think that’s ultimately the direction this heads. We’ve seen enough of Jackson Arnold to know what he is. That being said, coach Hugh Freeze hasn’t committed to a single direction, and that means Kentucky has to prepare for both.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
