Here are your best bets for Week 6.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 1-2
2025 season: 7-10
2024 season: 33-37
Week 6 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 6 game below.
Bet Penn State -25.5 at UCLA (-105 via Caesars)
At this point, James Franklin’s record against AP top-6 teams is well documented. In the aftermath of a 30-24 overtime loss to Oregon last Saturday, Franklin has been hammered once again for his big-game failures. He couldn’t break that trend against the Ducks, but I think he can break a different one this weekend against a hapless Bruins squad. Penn State is 9-4 outright following a loss to a top-6 team since the start of the 2017 season. The Nittany Lions have won 5 straight. But they are just 7-6 against the spread in games immediately following a crushing defeat.
I’m backing Penn State against the number this weekend, and I’m not scared away by the cross-country road trip or the potential for a hangover. UCLA is that bad.
The Bruins came out of their bye week with a new head coach and a new defensive coordinator. They still managed only 14 points in a 3-point loss to Northwestern. The Bruins have yet to score more than 23 points in a game this season. They gave up 43 to Utah, 35 to New Mexico, and 30 to UNLV. They’re 116th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play, and they’re 1-3 against the spread. The Bruins get nothing from their pass game because Nico Iamaleava has been under pressure on 40% of his drop-backs this season, and their run defense is completely broken. Northwestern ran for 199 yards. New Mexico ran for 298. Utah ran for 286.
Penn State is going to dominate the line of scrimmage in this game.
Bet Notre Dame-Boise State total over 64.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)
The Boise State and Notre Dame defenses rank 62nd and 93rd nationally, respectively, in schedule-adjusted EPA per play this season. The Broncos gave up 34 points to South Florida in their opener and then 37 in a back-and-forth game against Air Force. Boise State’s run defense is lacking and the pass defense has gotten burned several times already. With Irish quarterback CJ Carr starting to find his groove in recent weeks, the game plan becomes a simple one for Notre Dame. Move the ball with the ground game, pull the defense down, then go over the top with Carr’s arm. That’s exactly how Notre Dame wants to play.
But I’m not convinced all is well within the Notre Dame defense just because Arkansas self-destructed last Saturday. The Razorbacks generated only 13 points as quarterback Taylen Green had his first off day of the season. Head coach Sam Pittman lost his job after the game because of it. Boise State should put pressure on the Irish secondary. Over the last 3 games, Boise State has averaged 49 points, 10.5 yards per pass, and 8.2 yards per play. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been dynamite.
There should be 2-way traffic on the scoreboard in this game. And because I can’t rule out Notre Dame doing to Boise what it just did to Arkansas, I’m reaching for the total instead of the spread.
Bet Vanderbilt +10.5 at Alabama (-110 via BetMGM)
Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2024 season. In those 12 games, Vandy has 7 outright victories. Last year, Vandy won 4 times as an underdog of at least 7 points, and the Commodores are better this year than they were a year ago. Vandy is 10th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. The offense ranks fourth nationally in yards per play (7.9). The defense ranks 28th (4.7). Quarterback Diego Pavia is third nationally in both Total QBR and total EPA. Vandy is converting 60.1% of its third downs (fourth nationally) and scoring touchdowns on 86.2% of its red zone trips (third nationally). Alabama hasn’t shown it can contain mobile quarterbacks at any point during the Kalen DeBoer tenure and it is coming off a game against Georgia where it gave up 7.2 yards per carry, adjusted for sacks.
If Alabama can’t stop the run or keep Pavia from making plays, Ty Simpson is going to spend a ton of time on the sideline and the Alabama defense is going to get worn out. Will this look like the 40-35 result in Nashville last season? Maybe not, but Vanderbilt possessed the ball for 42 minutes that day and I don’t have a ton of faith in Alabama’s ability to prevent that kind of game if that’s how Vandy wants to attack again. I think the Tide are being overvalued a bit because of the revenge element of this game. These teams are separated by 0.1 points on a neutral field, according to the latest SP+ ratings.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
