It’s finally time for the College Football Playoff.
The path here was clunky. Watching the CFP selection committee stumble its way into a correct 12-team field was painful. Miami and Alabama were more deserving of spots than Notre Dame and Texas, but the week-to-week rankings and postulating from the selection committee made it impossible for them to actually defend those statements without looking ridiculous.
Seeding minutiae aside, the 12 teams we got are the 12 teams we should have gotten. Now, boardroom battles turn to field fights, and that’s where our attention belongs at the end of the day. So, let’s take a look at a slate of first-round CFP action that features 2 rematches across 4 games.
Here’s how to bet the early market ahead of the Playoff’s opening round.
Last week: 4-3
2025 season: 51-66-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
CFP First Round schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every conference championship game below.
CFP First Round picks
You can find my early bets for the CFP’s opening round below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Alabama at Oklahoma
Trends tell a simple story here. Oklahoma has won 4 straight, including road wins in Knoxville and Tuscaloosa. Since losing the first meeting with Oklahoma, Alabama needed a fourth-down dice roll deep into the fourth quarter to get past Auburn and got blown out in the SEC Championship Game by Georgia. Oklahoma’s defense has been consistently excellent for weeks. The only consistency in Alabama’s game of late has been inconsistency.
Turnovers cost the Tide in the first meeting with the Sooners. When an offense is one-dimensional, as Alabama’s was that day, a defense is live to create opportunities to take the football away. And Alabama is coming off a rushing performance against Georgia where its leading rusher ran for 11 yards.
No Alabama player had a run longer than 5 yards against the Bulldogs in the SEC title game. Simpson threw a pick and finished with a QBR of 19.9 — by far his worst of the season and the ninth-worst in a game by a qualified SEC quarterback all year.
Oklahoma closed out the regular season with at least 1 takeaway in each of its final 4 games. After producing just 4 turnovers in its first 8 games (and none in its first 4), OU has 9 takeaways since.
The offense looked abysmal at home against LSU, when quarterback John Mateer threw 3 interceptions and the Sooners managed only 17 points. But Oklahoma still averaged 6 yards per play that day with a 15% explosive play rate.
With a couple of weeks to rest, recover, and gameplan for the Tide, a cleaner performance isn’t out of the question. Plus, Oklahoma has been able to win games without scoring a ton of points. When held under 30 this season, the Sooners are 6-2.
Nothing about the Alabama offense provides hope that it can go on the road and beat this Oklahoma defense. The Sooners rank second nationally in allowed success rate, per Game on Paper, and they’re third in havoc rate. At home, 17 points might be enough to get the job done for a third straight game for OU.
Bet Oklahoma +1.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Miami at Texas A&M
This is another matchup where recent form stands in stark contrast between the 2 sides.
Miami has won 4 straight, all of them by at least 17 points, and all while scoring at least 34 points itself. The Hurricanes beat up on a couple of bad ACC teams and then mopped the floor with Pitt in the regular-season finale, 38-7. They got a jolt of life from the selection committee when, despite not playing a game, they flip-flopped with Notre Dame to sneak in the Playoff field. Expect the Hurricanes to play with some serious energy early.
On the other side, Texas A&M is coming off its first loss of the season at Texas. A 27-17 defeat to big brother in Austin was deflating, and it cost the Aggies both a shot at an SEC title and a likely first-round bye. Now, they have arguably the toughest first-round draw of any of the hosting teams. A&M is also just a few weeks removed from the no-show first half against South Carolina.
Marcel Reed, not Carson Beck, is the biggest swing piece in the game. Reed’s form has dipped over the last few weeks, and he injured his ankle in the Texas game. Though he returned, and coach Mike Elko downplayed the severity of the issue after the game, his mobility wasn’t the same afterward.
Reed’s ability to manage, navigate, and escape the pocket is paramount against Miami’s ultra-strong defensive front. The Hurricanes have 31 sacks in 10 games against power opponents this season. Rueben Bain Jr. is a menace who must always be accounted for, but Akheem Mesidor (7) is actually the team’s sacks leader. It’s a group effort; 6 Miami defenders have multiple sacks this season. Miami ranks fifth nationally in havoc rate.
If Reed is still limited in any way by the ankle, Miami will pin its ears back and try to fluster him. According to PFF, Reed’s passer grade when pressured this season is 33 points worse (43.1) than when he is kept clean (76.1), and his completion percentage plummets from 68.2% to 39.7%.
Coming into the season, all of the questions with the Aggie offense focused on Reed’s arm and his decision-making. In 9 games against power opponents, he has 10 interceptions and 17 turnover-worthy plays. He has multiple-interception games in 3 of his last 5 outings.
Miami is a threat to win this outright if Reed is anything less than stellar.
Bet Miami +4 (-110 via DraftKings)
Tulane at Ole Miss
Tulane gave up 45 points in the first meeting between these 2 teams. In what was Trinidad Chambliss’s second start of his Ole Miss career, the Rebel quarterback threw for 307 yards, ran for 112, and scored a pair of touchdowns. Ole Miss averaged 7.9 yards per play and hit 14 explosives.
However, half of the total points came in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss scored 22 and Tulane finally got a touchdown on the board with 3:42 to play in the game.
With Lane Kiffin as the school’s head coach, Ole Miss made a habit of running up scores and piling on points. With new leadership in charge of the program, will Ole Miss take a more merciful approach to garbage time?
Maybe in the future, but not right now. After Kiffin made an utter spectacle of his departure, he claimed the team wanted him to coach them in the CFP only for several players on the team to publicly refute that claim.
Ole Miss fans are livid with Kiffin for his handling of the situation. The Ole Miss coaching staff that stayed on might think Kiffin tried to hold the Playoff run hostage for his own desires. If the team never actually asked for Kiffin to coach them, and he went public saying they did, I imagine we’ll see a pretty spirited effort from that group in their first game out.
Tulane is walking into a hornet’s nest. And there’s already a sizeable gap between these 2 sides.
Ole Miss could hit the total on its own here.
Tulane coach Jon Sumrall is pulling double-duty this month, getting the Green Wave ready to fight Goliath while trying to establish the foundation for his Florida program. That’s a difficult balancing act for anyone.
The Green Wave were a bit unlucky to finish with just 10 points in the first meeting. They had a 70-yard drive end on downs at the Ole Miss 5, then each of the next 2 possessions ended on downs in Ole Miss territory. They also threw a pick immediately after recovering an Ole Miss fumble late in the fourth. I’d expect the total to be closer to 60 in the rematch, given everything at play.
Bet over 56.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
James Madison at Oregon
When first-half props start getting posted at most sportsbooks, those will be the more fruitful numbers to target. Oregon has a talent edge at the line of scrimmage that should result in this game being decided pretty early on.
The Ducks are a massive, 3-touchdown favorite, but I’m not a fan of laying that kind of number in a spot where Oregon figures to heavily tilt the field with the run game, or a spot where Oregon could take its foot off the gas in the fourth and save something for Texas Tech.
Models love James Madison. The Dukes are seventh nationally in adjusted net EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. (The Ducks are third, by the way.) Their defense is awesome at everything except controlling explosive plays. Their offense leans on a ground game that mashes teams at the line of scrimmage.
You have to take the numbers with a grain of salt. James Madison’s schedule ranked 123rd out of 136 FBS clubs, according to ESPN’s FPI. And the formula that led to a 12-win season against that schedule is a bad formula to put up against a team with better athletes at the skill positions and bigger athletes in the trenches.
Both of Oregon’s coordinators have accepted head coaching jobs elsewhere, but both are staying on to coach the Ducks in the CFP. Maybe focus becomes an issue the farther into the Playoff the Ducks go, but it shouldn’t be a problem right out of the gate.
Oregon should also be fired up to go out and have a better showing than in last year’s Playoff, when it earned the top overall seed and a bye, and got torn apart by Ohio State in its debut game.
Expect a heavy dose of the run game. Oregon has a deep room led by Noah Whittington. Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. have both looked excellent this season behind Whittington. All 3 are averaging north of 6 yards per carry. Oregon can pound the ball while keeping everyone fresh. The Ducks have a top-25 run game when judged by success rate, and they’re top-10 in tackles for loss allowed.
This could look like the Fiesta Bowl against Liberty 2 seasons ago.
Bet Oregon team total over 34.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
