Week 10 of the 2025 college football season has arrived, and just as we all expected, there’s a top-20 matchup between conference foes with massive College Football Playoff implications.
Yes, we have a Tennessee-Oklahoma game in Knoxville. And if that matchup is anything like the last meeting between the 2 in Neyland Stadium, we’ll be in for a treat.
Yes, there’s a top-25 battle in the Big 12, where Cincinnati will look to keep its title chase going against Utah.
And, yes, we have another entry in the Florida-Georgia rivalry.
But the noon ET window has a marquee game on a major network.
Texas hosts Vanderbilt.
What’d you think I was talking about?
Who would have thought that Penn State-Ohio State would be happening and no one would care in the slightest? Better yet, we’re going to be watching Vanderbilt instead.
The Commodores are 7-1. A win here would almost guarantee them a spot in the CFP. Texas, at 6-2, is still a threat in the SEC title race. And a top-10 win would rescue the season.
That’s the headliner. I’ll cover that game below, as well as PSU-OSU and a few other games I’m looking to place some early bets on.
Let’s get to it.
Last week: 4-4
2025 season: 33-38-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 10 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 10 game below.
Week 10 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State
In its first game post-Franklin, Penn State picked off Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski 49 seconds into the game and its offense set up shop at the Iowa 35-yard line. Ten plays later, the Nittany Lions scored and took a 7-0 lead. (Ten plays for 35 yards. Yikes.) Then, on the final play of the first half, Penn State blocked an Iowa field goal and returned it for a touchdown to go up 14-10 at the break. The Nittany Lions scored on their opening drive of the third to take a 21-10 lead and then proceeded to blow it.
Starting in place of the injured Drew Allar for the first time, Ethan Grunkemeyer completed 15 of his 28 passes for 93 yards and 2 interceptions. Penn State also fumbled twice, but recovered both.
That was the dress rehearsal for Penn State, which now has to take its redshirt freshman quarterback to Ohio State to make his second career start.
We saw it in the opener when Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia coached circles around the Texas staff and made Arch Manning look unsure of anything. And we’ve seen it in each spot since. Young quarterbacks are going to be eaten alive by this Ohio State defense, which can line up in a number of ways and has a coordinator who knows how to confuse inexperienced passers.
Washington’s Demond Williams Jr. averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt against the Buckeyes. Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey averaged 3.6. Wisconsin’s 2 quarterbacks averaged 3.3. Manning averaged 5.7.
Ohio State has had an extra week to study what it saw on tape when Penn State played Iowa and prepare for any changes. Penn State’s defense, though talented, has gotten pushed around since regulation ended against Oregon a month ago.
Penn State’s “post-firing bump” wasn’t enough to carry it to a win over Iowa. Amid a 4-game losing streak, it’s also fair to wonder how much fight is left in this locker room, which is full of guys who have an eye toward the NFL.
Bet Ohio State -20.5 (-110 via Fanatics)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas
As the 3.5-point underdog Vanderbilt opened as, I was tempted to back the Commodores in an upset spot. As this line plummets, I’m holding out to try and buy Texas as a dog.
Vanderbilt is coming off consecutive 7-point wins over ranked LSU and Mizzou teams. (I know LSU is no longer ranked, but Vandy will still claim it as a top-10 win. More power to them.) The ‘Dores have pushed their way into the top 10 and are approaching their highest-ever AP ranking. They’re working on their best start since The Great War. They’re getting pats on the back and being told they’re a win away from being a lock for the College Football Playoff.
I don’t particularly care for anything Texas is doing right now, but this feels like a letdown spot on the road for Vandy. Head coach Clark Lea is being linked to several job openings. Quarterback Diego Pavia is talking. And Texas is in “fight for its life” mode.
The matchup will be defined by what Texas does to slow down Pavia. A few weeks ago, we saw Vanderbilt head into Tuscaloosa and repeatedly shoot itself in the foot in scoring situations.
Texas is picking off more passes than it statistically should (9 on the year, 7.6 expected). The front has paved the way for 28 sacks in 8 games, tied for the fourth-most in the FBS. And the Longhorns have 52 tackles for loss in 8 games, including 20 over the last 2 weeks.
To this point in the season, Vanderbilt has avoided negative plays. The ‘Dores average only 3.3 TFLs allowed per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the nation. They rank fourth in offensive success rate and ninth in third-down conversions.
That’s the money down. Through the first 5 games of the season, Vandy was over 60% on third down 4 times. In the 3 conference games since, Vandy has been under 50% every week.
Texas also has an emerging game-breaker in the return game. Ryan Niblett had a 75-yard punt return for a touchdown in the Red River Rivalry win over Oklahoma. That return flipped the game to start the fourth. He had 45- and 43-yard punt returns the following week in a 3-point win over Kentucky. And he had a 79-yard punt return for the game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter against Mississippi State.
Vandy has only given up 4 punt returns all season, and only 1 gained more than 10 yards. But Niblett is going to be on the Commodores’ minds regardless.
Lean Texas -1, hold for plus odds
West Virginia at Houston
Since winning the Backyard Brawl earlier this year, West Virginia has lost 5 straight games. It sits next to Oklahoma State as the only winless teams at the bottom of the Big 12.
Last week’s 23-17 loss to TCU showed some hope, but the Mountaineers’ problems were still present. TCU started its first 3 possessions on the plus side of the 50 and led 10-0 before West Virginia gained its first first down of the night. WVU has been killed in the field position department all year because it can’t sustain drives.
The Mountaineers rank 127th in offensive success rate. They’re 90th in rushing efficiency and 100th in tackles for loss allowed. They have scored more than 17 points against another FBS team twice. One of those performances featured overtime. The other had a scoring drive that began at the opponent’s 3.
Houston is coming off a 24-16 win at Arizona State, its third consecutive victory since losing at home to Texas Tech on Oct. 4. Quarterback Conner Weigman, the former Texas A&M starter, threw for 201 yards, ran for 111, and scored 3 times to help lift the Cougars over the Sun Devils.
The Cougars hit enough explosives in the pass game and play really good defense. Against a bad West Virginia team, that’ll be plenty enough.
Bet Houston -14 (-110 via DraftKings)
Rutgers at Illinois
Assuming this point total stays in the 60s, this will be just the fourth time since the start of the 2021 season that an Illinois game had a projected point total above 60. Three of the 4 will have come this season.
The first — the opener against Western Illinois — fell 7.5 points shy of expectations. The second — Week 5 vs. USC — cleared the total by 4.5 points.
We’re in unfamiliar territory with this Illinois team, which averages 32.9 points per game but gives up 27.5. The Illini haven’t averaged 30 points per game across an entire season since 2010. They rank 20th nationally in success rate, but the defense is as runny as it has been in years.
Illinois ranks 127th nationally in adjusted EPA per play faced, per Game on Paper. The Illini don’t create negative plays or knock down passes, so even when they get opponents to third downs, which isn’t often, offenses don’t need much to convert, so they’re converting at the fifth-highest rate in the country.
Because Illinois can’t get off the field, it gives up a ton of red-zone possessions. And because Illinois doesn’t get its hands on a ton of passes, opponents score touchdowns at a 77% clip on their red-zone trips.
Rutgers matches up finely. The Scarlet Knights aren’t explosive, but they’re methodical. They’re 26th nationally in success rate. Per Game on Paper, the offense ranks in the 90th percentile for EPA per play on non-explosive snaps.
Rutgers’ defense is equally horrible. Before a 24-point showing against Purdue, the Scarlet Knights had given up at least 4 touchdowns in 5 of their 6 games against FBS competition.
They won a 34-31 game in the opener. They lost a 38-28 game to Iowa. They gave up 31 to a Minnesota team that has averaged 14.3 points in its 4 other conference games. They gave up 56 to Oregon.
Neither team knows how to stop opposing offenses. Unless both of these sides just fumble the football back and forth all day long, points will be shared.
Bet over 62.5 total points (-110 via bet365)
Army at Air Force
Army overs are 2-5 this season. Last year’s game with Air Force featured just 23 combined points, marking the eighth consecutive meeting in the series with fewer than 40 combined points.
In 2012, Army won a 41-21 game at West Point. The following season, Air Force won a 42-28 game. Since, 11 meetings between the 2 schools have averaged 27.1 points.
Playing the over here feels foolish until you consider how atrocious this year’s Air Force defense is.
Last week’s 24-21 win over Wyoming was the first time in 2025 that an Air Force game failed to clear the projected point total. The Falcons’ previous 6 games averaged 78.3 combined points. Four of the 6 featured at least 79 points, including a hilarious 51-48 game against UNLV that saw both sides combine for 1,200 yards of offense.
Air Force ranks 135th out of 136 FBS teams in defensive success rate. It cannot stop a nosebleed. And, while Army has the fewest scrimmage plays of 10-plus yards of any team in the nation, the Black Knights still average around 74 plays a game on offense.
Army, by the way, ranks 119th in defensive success rate. And the Air Force offense is legitimately awesome.
This has up-and-down, 30-27 potential, where the last team with the ball wins.
Bet over 49.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia
I’m looking for the post-firing bump here, specifically on offense, where Florida is simply too talented to be as bad as it has been this season.
Through stubborn play-calling, the Gators have averaged just 22.4 points per game through their first 7. They have averaged fewer than 20 points a game in SEC play.
Though it has a glut of capable running backs, Florida has one of the lower run rates in the country. Jadan Baugh averages 5.2 yards per carry and has had more than 15 attempts in a game only 4 times this season.
Remember, this was a team that Mario Cristobal said earlier was the most talented his Miami squads had faced. I’m curious what can be accomplished on offense by removing Billy Napier from the equation and giving a fresh set of minds 2 weeks to mix things up.
Against a Georgia defense that doesn’t pressure the opposing quarterback or create a ton of havoc, a refreshed Florida offense has a chance to threaten the Bulldogs.
It starts with quarterback DJ Lagway, who hasn’t been anywhere close to the same player he was as a freshman.
Lagway had an average depth of target of nearly 12 yards last season. He’s under 8 this year, with a 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate and a 3.4% big-time throw rate. He was at 3.0% and 8.8%, respectively last season.
As a true freshman, Lagway was a big-play hunter. He peppered downfield throws and missed on the intermediate stuff. This year, 61% of his attempts are less than 10 yards downfield and he has nearly as many picks (5) as completions (8) on throws of 20-plus yards downfield.
Florida has plenty of weapons at the skill positions. And it faces a gettable Georgia secondary. With more imaginative play-calling that makes better use of the personnel, what happens if Florida catches Georgia off guard, gets a foothold in the game, and builds some confidence just like we saw late last year? This feels like a buy-low number for Florida.
Bet Florida team total over 20.5 points (-115 via DraftKings)
Georgia Tech at NC State
I’m fading NC State until further notice. The Wolfpack are stinky.
Last week, freshman Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel broke a school record with 423 yards in the Panthers’ 53-34 win over NC State.
That was NC State’s fourth straight loss to an FBS opponent. Duke won 45-33 on Sept. 20. Virginia Tech won 23-21 on Sept. 21. Notre Dame won 36-7 on Oct. 11. A bye week to get ready for Pitt did NC State no favors.
Giving up 53 to Pitt may have marked the cellar. That was the first time since 2018 that a non-Clemson ACC team put 50 on a Dave Doeren defense. But even if that was more aberration than expectation, getting the rolling Yellow Jackets as just a 6-point favorite here is a blessing.
Georgia Tech had an off week to open the month of October, and it has another off week following this matchup with NC State. The Yellow Jackets are healthy, and there’s no reason to look past the Wolfpack.
Tech is coming off a 41-16 drubbing of Syracuse. Quarterback Haynes King threw for 304 yards, ran for 91 yards, and scored 5 touchdowns. The Jackets had one of the best net success rates of any Week 9 winner in the game.
I don’t think a night game in Carter-Finley Stadium will cancel out all the points Georgia Tech is going to score here. Stopping the run is Job No. 1 against the Ramblin’ Wreck and NC State has gotten run over by good rushing offenses already this season.
I’m also not buying this as a distraction spot for Brent Key. He’s a program alum, and he has an unbeaten team positioned for a Playoff run. He’s not going anywhere.
Bet Georgia Tech -6 (-110 via Fanatics)
Upset Spot of the Week: Mississippi State at Arkansas
Arkansas covered the spread against Arkansas State in Week 2, winning by 42 as a 23.5-point favorite.
Since, the Razorbacks have matched expectations twice. They gave Tennessee a scare as a 10-point dog on Oct. 11. And they covered a 7.5-point spread against Texas A&M because of a garbage-time touchdown with only seconds left.
They lost to Auburn as a favorite. They lost to Memphis as a favorite. They fumbled away a chance to upset Ole Miss. And they got pantsed by Notre Dame as a slight dog.
Mississippi State has been oh so close to its first SEC win in years. I think the Bulldogs finally end the streak against the Razorbacks. There’s no telling what you’re going to get from the Arkansas offense, but we know the defense is a disaster.
Mississippi State’s inability to protect quarterback Blake Shapen has been detrimental to the effort in recent weeks. I’m curious how the line holds up against an Arkansas defense that has just 14 sacks on the season but has been blitzing a ton in recent weeks.
Texas A&M had 8 explosive pass plays against Arkansas a few weeks ago. Busts have been a problem in the secondary all year. And if MSU can find some rhythm early, there’s a path to victory.
In the 31-9 loss to Texas A&M, the Bulldogs wore down. It was a 14-3 game going into the fourth quarter. In the 23-21 loss to Florida, it was a 13-7 game going to the fourth. Tennessee scored 21 of its 41 points in the fourth quarter and overtime on Sept. 27. Texas scored 31 of its 45 in the fourth quarter and overtime, including 7 on a punt return.
If Mississippi State built another lead, could it actually close? Against the weakest defense it’ll see all season, I’ll roll the dice.
Bet Mississippi State money line (+160 via Fanatics)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
