Six games involving AP Top 10 teams have a point spread in the double-digits in Week 12. The top 2 teams in the country are 30-point favorites in home games against other Big Ten teams. Texas A&M is a 3-score favorite at home over another SEC team. Ole Miss is a 2-score favorite. Texas Tech is a 3-touchdown favorite. Notre Dame is a 10-point favorite.
There are a pair of ranked-on-ranked games in the SEC that fill 2 of the 3 slots on ABC that should be outstanding games. Outside of that, it could be a blowout Saturday.
The Big Noon Kickoff game pits Michigan against Northwestern on a baseball diamond. The primetime NBC game is expected to be a blowout.
It might be a separation Saturday ahead of what will be the third batch of College Football Playoff rankings.
Taking a look at the early betting market, here’s what I’m playing.
Last week: 2-6
2025 season: 37-49-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 12 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 12 game below.
Week 12 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M
The Texas A&M defense felt disrespected by the CFP selection committee’s comments heading into Week 11, and that unit sought to overwhelm Missouri quarterback Matt Zollers in his first start. Mission accomplished.
Zollers threw 22 times for 77 yards. Mizzou had no passing attack to complement a ground game that hit quite a few big plays, and the Tigers finished with just 17 points on the scoreboard.
If the committee was concerned about A&M’s leaky run defense, those questions were not abated. But A&M played sound in the secondary and flummoxed a young passer without really pressuring him much (28% of drop-backs).
That performance presents an interesting jumping-off point for this week’s game against South Carolina.
Missouri has arguably the best running back in the country in Ahmad Hardy and probably the best 1-2 punch at the position with Jamal Roberts backing Hardy up. The Tigers are an excellent rushing team. South Carolina is not. The Gamecocks rank 119th in rushing success rate. Only 5 runs all season have produced more than 20 yards.
The one-dimensional nature of the offense has put even more pressure on quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who has had to navigate a broken pocket all year. Sellers has been sacked 33 times, including at least 5 times each in 3 of his last 4 games. South Carolina fired offensive coordinator Matt Shula after the Nov. 1 loss to Ole Miss and Shane Beamer gave play-calling responsibilities to Mike Furrey.
After a bye week, maybe South Carolina tries to throw different looks at the Aggies. Scheme tweaks won’t change the fact this offensive line is among the poorest in the country.
Only 9 FBS teams have given up more tackles for loss. (Four of those 9 have played a 10th game already.) South Carolina ranks in the 34th percentile for line yards gained per carry, but even when the line does produce openings, SC’s backs don’t gain yardage. On average, third-down plays need 8 yards to move the sticks.
A&M should have plenty of opportunities to tee off on Sellers. There are no concerns about health with the Aggies. There is no reason for this team to look ahead; Samford comes to College Station next week. Maybe the noon ET kick causes a sleepy start for the home side, but South Carolina simply doesn’t have the offense to sustain itself in a game like this.
Bet Texas A&M -18.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Wisconsin at No. 2 Indiana
Last week’s 13-10 win over Washington snapped an 11-game losing streak against power conference teams for Wisconsin. The Badger defense came to play and helped Wiscy secure a desperately needed victory at home.
Unfortunately, 13 points won’t be anywhere close to enough in Bloomington on Saturday. And Wisconsin has still managed more than 13 points against power conference teams only twice in its last 12 games. The Badgers scored 14 against Alabama earlier this year in a 24-point defeat and they scored 25 against Nebraska last season in a 19-point defeat.
Saturday’s matchup with Indiana pits the No. 4 team in the nation (by adjusted net EPA per play) against the nation’s No. 127 team. Indiana has found joy in pummeling teams into a pulp. Wisconsin has struggled against the quality it has faced on its schedule, last week’s game notwithstanding.
Iowa won 37-0 earlier in Madison. Ohio State won 34-0 a week later. Oregon won 21-7, but played half the game with a backup quarterback. I think the results of Week 11 provide the perfect buy-low/sell-high opportunity for both sides.
Indiana escaped Happy Valley with a 3-point win over a struggling Penn State team. IU will probably get dinged for the come-from-behind nature of the win when the CFP committee updates its Top 25 this week. Coach Curt Cignetti will be able to use any such slight as fuel for his team, which moves into a bye week after facing the Badgers. “Go make a statement, we’ll rest up after.” Something like that.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin finally snapped the losing streak. It broke through. It got to celebrate. Concerns persist, though. The Badgers threw for 48 yards and averaged 3.2 yards per play. They actually lost the efficiency battle with Washington, which averaged 3.7 yards per play. Wiscy was also 2-for-14 on third down. Washington had 2 turnovers and missed a field goal in a 3-point loss.
Half of IU’s wins this season have come by 30-plus. The bad teams have been obliterated. The road games have been challenging, sure, but I’m backing the Hoosiers at home.
Bet Indiana -30.5 (-110 via bet365)
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 24 Pitt
Pitt will host ESPN’s College GameDay this weekend ahead of a top-25 matchup with Notre Dame. The Panthers are 7-2 on the season, but they are a deep sleeper in the CFP discussion.
The early-season loss to West Virginia is a problem. The loss to Louisville doesn’t help the résumé. But Saturday’s game against the Fighting Irish is the first of 3 straight against ranked competition, affording Pitt a chance to do something special. The path is still very much there. Closing out with wins in all 3 games could send the Panthers to the ACC title game.
GameDay is making its first visit since 2022. Pitt won that day, a 38-31 victory in the Backyard Brawl. It’ll be an early morning for fans. Maybe that helps create a raucous atmosphere inside Acrisure Stadium for the noon ET kick.
Pitt has a chance here. It needs help, but it has a chance.
Notre Dame just smashed Navy. But the 49-10 win marked the fourth straight time Notre Dame has beaten a service academy by at least 20 points. Notre Dame has won 7 of its last 8 against service academy teams by more than 20.
Prior to Week 11, Notre Dame beat Boston College by just 15 and beat USC by just 10. The Irish were plus-4 in the turnover department in those 2 games.
Pitt has 16 turnovers this season. Half of those have come during this 5-game winning streak. The Panthers had 4 against Stanford on Nov. 1 and still won by 15. The defense has created a takeaway in every game but the opener. It has 10 interceptions.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has just 4 picks this year, but he has 8 turnover-worthy plays. He was remarkable in games against Boston College and Navy; he was less so in the win over USC. But that’s how it goes for a young, first-time starter. Notre Dame knew it would live with the growing pains under Carr. The good has outweighed the bad.
He still makes those rookie mistakes, though. If any pop up against an opportunistic Panthers defense that defends the run well and creates a ton of havoc, Notre Dame will find itself in a fight.
At its core, Notre Dame wants to run the ball with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The Irish have a 58% run rate this year. Pitt ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed. It allows 2.4 yards per carry on the ground — the best raw mark in the FBS. Chunk runs are difficult to come by. Game-breaking gains on the ground are almost nonexistent.
If Mason Heintschel takes care of the ball (he has 6 turnover-worthy plays in his last 2), Pitt can hang with the Irish.
Bet Pitt +11.5 (-110 via Fanatics)
Marshall at Georgia State
Georgia State is among the worst teams in the country, and it has covered 1 spread in 9 games. The defense is ghastly. The Panthers have given up at least 38 points in 7 of their 8 games against FBS teams. The only win all season came against an FCS opponent. The 8 losses have been by an average of 25.3 points per game.
The Panthers have been getting closer in recent weeks. They lost to App State by 21. Then they lost back-to-back games by 17. At Coastal Carolina last week, they lost by 13. Progress! And, this week, they host a Marshall team that has lost each of its last 2 games by multiple scores.
But Marshall stops the run well enough, wins the field position battle more often than not, and has enough big-play ability on offense to suggest it can cover this number. More than anything, this is a bet against the Panthers, who have been 73 points worse than expected this season against all FBS competition.
Bet Marshall -7 (-110 via DraftKings)
No. 20 Iowa at No. 19 USC
I love USC, especially at home. Big Ten teams have been handled in Los Angeles this season, losing by an average of 18 points per game while going 1-2 against the spread.
Iowa had its heart broken by Oregon over the weekend, taking the lead in the closing minutes only to give up a game-winning field goal with just a few seconds left.
The Hawkeyes have been close to a signature win inside Kinnick Stadium this season. They lost by 5 to Indiana earlier in the year. Now they have the 2-point loss to Oregon. A win in either game would have made this a Playoff threat. Without either result, that door is closed.
A Big Ten title game appearance is probably off the table now, too. But for USC, both dreams are still alive. The Trojans (7-2, 5-1 B1G) might be looking ahead to Oregon on Nov. 22. That game will make or break the case, if there’s a case to be made. Saturday’s game against Iowa will determine whether the Trojans will have an audience; lose to Iowa and it won’t matter what happens in Eugene.
This will be just the fourth true road game for Iowa all year. The first was a 3-point loss to Iowa State in Week 2. The second was a 10-point win over Rutgers. The third was a shutout at Wisconsin.
Iowa was able to drag Oregon into a rock fight. Atrocious weather played a factor. Oregon’s lengthy injury report also contributed to the style of the game.
Clear skies and little breeze are expected Saturday in Los Angeles. Conditions will be perfect. Does Iowa have enough offense to threaten the Trojans if the game demands it?
The Trojans lead the nation in adjusted EPA per play. They rank in the 95th percentile for explosive play rate. And they rank in the 98th percentile for EPA per play on the snaps that don’t produce chunk plays. You might get a couple of stops, but you aren’t going to shut down the USC offense. No one has this year.
Factoring in the cross-country travel and the situational spot, I like getting USC under a touchdown here.
Bet USC -6.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
No. 13 Utah at Baylor
Baylor has been one of the hardest teams to get a read on this year. The Bears lost to Auburn at home, then beat SMU on the road. They beat Kansas State and then lost back-to-back to TCU and Cincinnati. On Nov. 1, they beat UCF 30-3.
They’re 2-7 against the spread. The Bears have an outright win as a 3-point dog and a 21-point loss as a 3.5-point dog. After a bye week, they host Utah for a night game at McLane Stadium in Waco, where they are a 9.5-point dog.
Utah has been among the best against the number all season because it crushes teams.
The Utes have 2 outright defeats — by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 3 on the road to BYU. The Utes have 7 outright victories, all of which have come by at least 25 points. Utah is a machine when it comes to per-play efficiency, ranking top-20 in offensive and defensive success rate while ranking eighth in net success rate.
Baylor ranks 69th nationally in net success rate. Utes will stay on trend with another double-digit win.
Bet Utah -8.5 (-115 via Fanatics)
No. 11 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
I’m going for the total here in a game that could wind up going to overtime. Texas has found its groove. But Georgia keeps finding a way.
The Dawgs aren’t uber-explosive on offense and have a rather inconsistent rushing attack, but they’ve managed to score 43 points and 41 points in 2 of the last 3 outings. They had 44 in a game earlier this season against Tennessee and 35 against Kentucky.
This Texas defense is better than any Georgia has played this year. And the 20 points Georgia scored against the last good defense it faced (Auburn) might not be enough against the Longhorns’ budding offense.
Texas has scored 79 points in its last 2 games. The defense has slipped, but Arch Manning’s lightbulb moment in Starkville carried over to the Vanderbilt game, when he threw for 328 yards and 3 scores to lead the Longhorns to an upset victory.
Manning entered that game with questions after going through concussion protocol during the week. Fresh off a bye week, Manning should be in fine shape. And he might have another big game against a Georgia defense that neither pressures the quarterback nor stops the throw game.
Georgia is tied for 122nd nationally with 11 sacks in 9 games. Georgia is tied for 70th nationally in passing success rate allowed. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has faced plenty of criticism this season, but with an extra week to prepare, he should have a plan to take advantage of a porous pass defense.
Bet total over 47.5 points (-110 via BetMGM)
Upset Spot of the Week: Arkansas at LSU
A third straight loss for LSU featured a ton of change and yet nothing new. LSU fired its head coach and its offensive coordinator after the loss to Texas A&M. Then it benched its starting quarterback halfway through a loss to Alabama. The result of all that change was 9 points on the scoreboard.
It was LSU’s worst offensive performance of the season and marked the first time since Nov. 28, 2020, that LSU failed to score at least 10 points in a game. The Tigers managed only 232 yards of total offense, including 59 rushing yards.
The insertion of Michael Van Buren Jr. for Garrett Nussmeier early in the third didn’t help the ground game. Though Van Buren is more mobile, LSU produced just 4 rushing yards on 14 carries in the second half.
Alabama finished with 3 sacks and 7 tackles for loss, highlighting once again that the biggest issue plaguing the Tiger offense is its inability to block opposing fronts. LSU ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in opportunity rate, line yards per carry, and stuff rate.
That won’t change regardless of what happens at quarterback this week for LSU. Even though the Arkansas defense has taken its (many) lumps this season, the offense is combustible and Taylen Green is the exact kind of quarterback that has given LSU fits for years.
Trinidad Chambliss had 71 rushing and 314 passing against LSU in the Rebels’ win earlier this year. Diego Pavia had 86 rushing and 160 passing in Vanderbilt’s win. Marcel Reed had 108 rushing and 202 passing in the A&M win. In terms of total EPA this season, Green ranks higher than each of the 3 that were just mentioned. He’s fourth nationally.
Green was dinged in the Mississippi State loss, but he’s had an extra week to rest up and appears to be trending in the right direction. I’ll reach for a stunner to try and recoup some of my season’s losses.
Bet Arkansas money line (+180 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
