Whoa, buddy, do we have a doozy of a week of college football ahead of us.
We get Thursday night college football in lovely Greenville, North Carolina. We get a ranked Florida State hitting the road on Friday night, and a sneakily important Big 12 matchup shortly after it. On Saturday, you’ll need a dozen screens for everything.
USC battles Illinois in Champaign at noon ET on FOX. Notre Dame heads to Fayetteville to battle the always-entertaining Razorbacks. LSU is on the road for a top-15 matchup. Auburn is in College Station. Indiana is in Iowa City. Tennessee is in Starkville. BYU is in Boulder. And we have clashes of the titans at 7:30 p.m. ET.
On NBC, Oregon battles Penn State in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.
On ABC, Alabama battles Georgia in a rematch of last year’s instant classic in Tuscaloosa.
Through the first 4 weeks of the season, we’ve had plenty of consequential results as it relates to the College Football Playoff. This weekend — with the potential for upsets and the volume of highly-ranked matchups — feels like it could frame the CFP conversation for the rest of the season.
Here’s how to bet the early market.
- Last week: 5-1
- 2025 season: 18-17
- 2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 5 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 5 game below.
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas
Had Arkansas held off Memphis and won on the road, the line here would be much tighter. It might have been a pick ‘em. Heck, the Razorbacks might have even been favored. Instead, Arkansas lost a second-straight game because it fumbled the football away in the final 2 minutes and now the Hogs are a near-touchdown underdog at home.
As such, I love this spot for Taylen Green and the Razorbacks. I think this is a game Arkansas could win. I can’t definitively say the Razorbacks will — mostly because I can’t guarantee they won’t make another crushing mistake late — but this offense should put points on a reeling Notre Dame defense.
“Reeling?” Yes, reeling. The Irish rank 122nd in EPA per play faced this season, per Game on Paper. They ranked second in this metric a year ago. The Chris Ash-led defense is not working, and a pair of Notre Dame defensive backs are questionable for the weekend.
If Notre Dame gets you to third down, the Irish are pretty good in that specific spot. Otherwise, opponents are going over, around, and through this defense. Per Game on Paper, the Irish rank in the 10th percentile for early-downs EPA and the 16th percentile for non-explosive EPA per play. This is a bend-don’t-break defense that gives up touchdowns on 63% of its opponents’ trips to the red zone. Last year, Notre Dame had a top-10 pass defense, allowing just a shade over 6 yards per attempt. This year, the Irish are giving up 8.1 yards per pass. The opposition has a passing success rate of 49.5%. Only 11 other FBS teams have been worse.
I’m not sure what the plan is to slow down Green, aside from just praying he or one of his teammates makes a mistake that takes the ball out of his hands. No one has slowed Arkansas down yet. The Razorbacks are 14th in passing success rate, 11th in rushing success rate, and third in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. They’re in the 99th percentile nationally for opportunity rate, and the 96th percentile for early-downs EPA per play.
Even though the offensive line isn’t dominating, the Razorbacks’ playmakers are. Green is third in the SEC in rushing. Tailback Mike Washington is third in per-carry efficiency among all players with at least 20 attempts. Green has an average depth of target at 10.1 yards downfield with a 72% adjusted completion rate. And Arkansas has 6 different pass-catchers (4 wideouts and 2 tight ends) with at least 100 receiving yards already this year. Only 1 other SEC team (Ole Miss) has more than 4.
Get in early, as this line will dip throughout the week. I’d play Arkansas to 3.5 here.
Bet Arkansas +6.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss
The Tigers kept Garrett Nussmeier involved in the offense despite calls from some to give him the week off. He responded with a 25-of-31 day for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns while also finding the end zone on the ground. LSU topped 400 yards of total offense for the first time this season and scored more than 23 points in a game for the first time this season.
All is right in Baton Rouge, right?
Not so fast, my friend.
LSU averaged 6.8 yards per play and 4.7 sack-adjusted yards per rush. LSU is the 10th SEC team so far this season to face an FCS opponent. Its per-play offensive average was the fourth-worst and its per-play rushing average was the third-worst. We knew Nussmeier could throw; we just knew he wasn’t healthy. We knew LSU couldn’t run the football, and this result didn’t really change that.
The Tigers had 4 explosive run plays against an FCS opponent. One of those plays was a 26-yard scramble from Nussmeier, who finished with 10 total rushing yards. One of those plays was a 12-yard run from backup quarterback Michael Van Buren on a broken play.
Caden Durham, the Tigers’ lead tailback, had 17 yards on 7 carries and left the game with an ankle injury. Ju’Juan Johnson had 8 carries for 43 yards after carrying the ball 8 times for 9 yards in the first 3 games. If Durham is unavailable this week, the backfield will be relying on a sophomore with 23 career carries and a 2.9 yards-per-attempt average.
Heading into last week, I stated that the 35-point showing by Arkansas said more about the Hogs’ offense than the Rebels’ defense. Ole Miss went out and backed me up, holding Tulane to 10 points and just 4.1 yards per play in a blowout win.
The LSU defense is good enough to keep the Tigers in every single game, but Ole Miss has found its best quarterback over the last 2 weeks and the Tigers still haven’t shown enough to feel good about their offense. Back the Rebels in a revenge spot at home.
Bet Ole Miss money line (-135 via BetMGM)
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M
Last week’s Oklahoma-Auburn game played out a lot like I and others thought it would. Auburn hit some big plays in the pass game. Oklahoma struggled to get its run game going. But the Sooners won anyway because they heated up Jackson Arnold.
The Sooners recorded 10 sacks in the game, the last of which went for a safety and cashed our OU -6.5 ticket. Auburn certainly gets some credit for holding the Sooners to 1.5 sack-adjusted yards per rushing attempt, but it is hardly the first team this season to make the Sooners one-dimensional.
Remove the sacks from the game and Auburn ran for 111 yards at 4.3 per carry on the road. Jeremiah Cobb had 6 rushing attempts for 61 yards. The Tigers also got the downfield game going with big plays to Cam Coleman.
Aside from the offensive line looking like Swiss cheese, there are some positives you can point to from the offensive performance in this game. The line has to be sorted out, to be clear, but Oklahoma has one of the best defensive fronts in the country and a coach who knew exactly which buttons to press to make Arnold uncomfortable.
A&M can try to replicate the formula, but it doesn’t have the same ingredients. Oklahoma had more sacks in this 1 game than Texas A&M has all season. The Aggies produced just 1 in their opener and only 2 in the road win at Notre Dame. Without that 3-sack sequence on consecutive plays from Cashius Howell against Utah State, there would be serious questions about the Aggie front.
Even still, A&M has given up 86 points through 3 games. Since the turn of the century, A&M has given up 80 points or more over its first 3 games 3 other times: 2020, 2013, and 2008. The 2020 Aggies turned things around after giving up 80 points in back-to-back weeks to top-5 Alabama and Florida teams. But the 2013 and 2008 teams went on to get repeatedly shelled. The 2013 Aggies finished 96th in scoring defense. The 2008 Aggies finished 115th.
Per Game on Paper, this year’s Aggie bunch ranks 77th in EPA per play faced. They haven’t been good enough on early downs because they haven’t been good enough against the run. UTSA ran for 6.6 yards per carry (adjusted for sacks) in the opener. Utah State ran for 4.3. Notre Dame ran for 4.1. And the defense has yet to face a mobile quarterback that will stress it the way Arnold will.
Though the Aggies are coming off a bye, I like Auburn to keep this close and put a scare into The 12th Man.
Bet Auburn +6.5 (even via ESPN Bet)
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State
The upside to playing Nevada, Florida International, and Villanova in your first 3 games of the season is you can be excruciatingly boring, not care about the reaction, and comfortably sit 3-0. There was virtually no reason for Penn State to showcase anything of substance on offense through the first 3 weeks of its season, knowing that a top-10 Oregon team would be coming to Happy Valley on Sept. 27, so Penn State kept things as plain as possible.
Quarterback Drew Allar sits 106th in Total QBR among qualified FBS passers. He sits 99th in EPA. Penn State ranks 80th in EPA per dropback and 42nd in passing success rate.
I don’t particularly care about any of that.
The Nittany Lions are 13th nationally in EPA per run. They’re seventh nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play. And Oregon has no idea what new wrinkles have been added to the offense by second-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
We know how potent the Ducks can be. We’ve seen Oregon play its game and completely open things up on offense. The Ducks rank fifth nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA per play on offense. Quarterback Dante Moore has been spectacular to open the season. The ground game is multifaceted. The receiving corps is deep, even with the No. 1 receiver injured and a former 5-star off the team.
I think this game could look a lot like last year’s Big Ten title fight, when the Ducks won 45-37 in a game that featured 55 first-half points. Oregon is better against the run this season than it was last season, but it’s still not great. The Ducks ranked 97th in rushing success rate a year ago and they rank 72nd now. If Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton get what they want against this Duck defense again — they combined for 229 yards on 24 carries last season — it’ll be a long day for Oregon fans.
This total is too low. Too many signs point toward both these teams being unable or unsure how to stop each other.
Bet over 52.5 total points (-110 via bet365)
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia
Wisconsin stinks. Louisiana-Monroe stinks. Austin Peay stinks. Marshall stinks. Those teams are a combined 0-5 against other power conference teams, with an average margin of defeat of 34.8 points. Those 4 teams are averaging a combined 25.9 points per game this season. As we prepare for this massive, SEC title picture-altering matchup between the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide, it’s perfectly reasonable to question both defenses.
Against the only good team Alabama has played, the Crimson Tide were uninterested in tackling. And, no, Wisconsin is not a good football team.
Against the only good team Georgia has played, the Bulldogs gave up 21 first-quarter points and were a missed field goal or a missed fourth-down throw away from losing.
Florida State averaged 6.1 yards per play against the Crimson Tide in the opener, and the ground game ripped Alabama to shreds. Tennessee averaged 7.1 yards per play against Georgia, and the aerial assault constantly confused Georgia. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar averaged 10.3 yards per pass attempt and had an explosive pass play rate of 40%. Forty percent.
Quarterbacks on both sides of this matchup enter with a significant amount of confidence. In Gunner Stockton’s last outing, he threw for 304 yards and 2 scores to lead a massive comeback on the road. Ty Simpson has hit 1,278 consecutive pass attempts. (At least, that’s what it feels like.)
Both sides have home run hitters on the outside — Alabama with Ryan Williams and Georgia with Zach Branch. Both sides have solid running backs. (Jam Miller is trending toward a debut.) Both sides had an extra week to prep.
Offenses will have the advantage in this Alabama vs. Georgia rivalry game.
Bet over 53 total points (-110 via Fanatics)
Kentucky at South Carolina
Normally, you’d think that a preseason-ranked team might be a bounce-back candidate in a spot like this. I don’t buy it. Not this South Carolina team. South Carolina’s offense is broken. And I don’t think there’s a way to fix it.
In a 29-20 loss to Mizzou, South Carolina finished with minus-9 rushing yards. Rahsul Faison had 6 carries for 5 yards. Oscar Adaway III had 3 carries for 7 yards. Matt Fuller had 2 carries for 7 yards. LaNorris Sellers had 5 carries for 18 yards if you remove the 5 sacks he took.
The Gamecocks now rank 106th in EPA per play, 110th in offensive success rate, and 131st in rushing efficiency.
In 4 games and 40 offensive possessions so far this season, South Carolina has 7 offensive touchdowns, 4 turnovers, and 17 points. Just 17.5% of the Gamecocks’ offensive possessions have produced a touchdown. The Gamecocks have punted on 42.5% of their drives. They go 3-and-out once every 4 possessions, on average. They’ve also allowed multiple sacks in every game so far this year.
The offensive line is the main issue. Sure, Sellers hasn’t been great, but no one would be behind this line. There are 17 SEC quarterbacks this season with at least 50 dropbacks. From that group, Texas quarterback Arch Manning has the second-highest pressured rate at 35%. The closest player behind him (Kentucky’s Zach Calzada) has a pressure rate at 32.8%.
Sellers is at 40.9%.
He has a 43.5% completion rate with a per-pass average of 6 yards when pressured. When kept clean, Sellers has completed 74% of his passes for 11.9 yards with 4 touchdowns this season.
Add in a completely nonexistent run game, and it becomes immediately clear how this preseason darling has turned into a dud.
Kentucky has done well this season to limit the explosive runs on defense and stay on schedule when running the ball on offense. Going to the air has been an adventure, but this Gamecock defense just gave up 285 yards on the ground at nearly 6 a carry to Mizzou. Kentucky should go into this looking to shrink the game and force South Carolina to be efficient with its possessions.
I do not believe the Gamecocks are capable of doing that.
Bet Kentucky +6.5 (-105 via ESPN Bet)
Upset Spot of the Week: UCLA at Northwestern
Off a bye week, I’m looking for a coaching bump here with the Bruins.
Following a 35-10 home loss to New Mexico on Sept. 13, UCLA fired head coach DeShaun Foster. Over the bye week, defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe also exited the program.
UCLA added Kevin Coyle to help out the defense in Malloe’s absence. Coyle was the defensive coordinator at Fresno State last season when Tim Skipper, the Bruins’ new interim head coach, served as the Fresno State interim head coach. Coyle coordinated the Bulldogs’ defense for 3 seasons, and he led serviceable units each time. Fresno State ranked 67th or better in schedule-adjusted EPA per play all 3 years, topping out at 24th last season.
We’re also still waiting for the Nico Iamaleava-Tino Sunseri partnership to click. Sunseri came over after helping ignite Indiana under Curt Cignetti last season. Iamaleava obviously quarterbacked an SEC team to the College Football Playoff.
UCLA signed a top-25 transfer class this offseason. This team should not be 0-3 given the schedule it has already faced. And it certainly shouldn’t be a touchdown underdog to Northwestern.
The Wildcats can’t stop the run and they can’t throw the football without turning it over. Quarterback Preston Stone is completing 59% of his passes this season with 6 picks. Northwestern scored 3 points against Tulane in the opener and its 14 points against Oregon came in the fourth quarter against bench players.
Neither of these teams is any good. At least UCLA has a breath of fresh air in the form of a coaching change. Plus, UCLA’s cross-country trek to the Windy City doesn’t feature a noon ET kickoff like the one the Ducks had. This game will kick off at 12:30 p.m. PT, so there’s little reason to worry about the Bruins’ body clocks.
Bet UCLA money line (+200 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
